ETH teeters at resistance: R1 rejection and shallow Fib bounce point to a quick drive toward $3,060

Executive summary and directional bias

• Bias next 24h: Bearish-to-sideways with rallies likely to be sold. Base case is a retest of 3,120 → 3,080 → 3,060 support zone after a shallow bounce toward 3,195–3,215.
• Key intraday tell: Clear rejection near daily pivot R1 (≈3,213–3,214) with a lower high at 3,227.6 and subsequent fade below the hourly VWAP/mean suggests supply is dominant on pushes.
• Trade plan focus: Favour fade-the-bounce short entries into 3,195–3,210 with take-profit staged just above the 3,060 structural shelf. Use tight risk above 3,235–3,255 (failed-breakout/invalidation).

Context: multi-week structure and regime

• Trend regime (daily): Since the early-November breakdown (Nov 3–4), ETH shifted from distribution into accelerated downtrend: lower highs (3,656 → 3,582 → 3,415 → 3,233/3,213) and lower lows (3,560 → 3,292 → 3,232 → 3,104). Price sits 10–15% under the late-Oct value area, confirming a bearish regime.
• Volatility regime: Volatility expanded violently on the Nov 4 washout (3,602→3,292 close, intraday low 3,063). 14D ATR is elevated (ballpark 240–300) and daily true ranges of 150–300 remain common. Current high vol plus weak bounces = sell-the-rip conditions.
• Volume behaviour: Down days carry larger volume than up days (Nov 4, Nov 10–11, Nov 13–14), a classic distribution/markdown signature. Today’s (Nov 15) bounce was on lighter volume and rejected near pivot resistance, consistent with passive sell supply absorbing upticks.

Key levels: support/resistance map

• Immediate resistance: 3,195–3,215 (hourly supply and daily pivot R1 cluster), 3,228 (today’s high and 23.6% Fib from 3,656→3,104), 3,252–3,256 (Nov 14 high / micro stop zone). Above that: 3,312–3,325 (daily R2 / prior breakdown shelf), then 3,380–3,415 (50%/38.2% retraces from larger swings; heavy supply).
• Immediate support: 3,142–3,150 (daily pivot P ≈3,142.8), 3,120 (intraday shelf), 3,080–3,060 (lower band/support shelf incl. 3,063 Nov 4 spike low). Below: 2,962 (daily S2 from 11/14 calc) and the 3,000 round number.

Technical indicator deep-dive (daily unless noted)

1. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20D EMA/SMA: Sloped down, estimated mid-3,5xx, well above spot; price persistently below = bearish.
• 50D SMA: Also sloped down (high-3,8xx/low-4,0xx earlier) with price far below; suggests any bounce faces headwinds.
• Conclusion: Strong trend filter bearish; rallies toward falling MAs likely fade zones.

2. RSI (momentum)

• Daily RSI (14): Estimated mid-30s after consecutive down closes into 3,103 and a modest bounce to 3,161. Momentum weak, not deeply oversold; plenty of room to extend lower before a reflexive rally is “forced.”
• Hourly RSI: Neutral-to-weak (mid-40s to low-50s) with hidden bearish divergence vs the 18:00 spike to 3,227 that failed; implies rally attempts lack thrust.

3. MACD (trend-momentum)

• Daily MACD below signal and zero; histogram slightly less negative today (minor bounce), but no bullish cross. This typically precedes either sideways digestion or another leg down when rallies fail under resistance.
• Hourly MACD rolled over post-18:00; weakens the case for sustained intraday trend up.

4. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Daily: Bands expanded on the crash and remain wide. Price oscillates near the lower band zone (≈3,06x–3,10x), with mean (middle band) far above (≈3,45x–3,50x). First tests of the lower band can produce bounces, but repeated tags without reclaiming the mid-band argue for continuation lower. Today’s bounce stalled far from the mid-band = mean reversion is truncated.
• Hourly: Price faded from upper band back toward midline; upper-band rejections into supply confirm bear control intraday.

5. ATR/volatility and range probabilities

• 14D ATR ≈ 240–300. A 4–6% 24h swing is statistically plausible in current regime. That supports a tactical target into 3,08x–3,06x after an optimal short entry near 3,20x.

6. Fibonacci structure

• Swing A: 3,656 (Nov 10 high) → 3,104 (Nov 14 low). Retracements: 23.6% ≈ 3,233, 38.2% ≈ 3,314, 50% ≈ 3,380, 61.8% ≈ 3,446. Today’s high 3,227 fell shy of 23.6% and failed—bearish sign; strong downtrends often cap at shallow Fibs before another push lower.
• Larger swing: 3,915/3,906 (Nov 1–2) → 3,104 (Nov 14). 38.2% ≈ 3,415, 50% ≈ 3,510. The market is rejecting well below these—sellers dominant.

7. Market profile / volume nodes (heuristic)

• Value nodes appear around 3,40x–3,45x (late Oct/early Nov congestion), and a lower developing node near 3,30x. Current price is below both, implying we’re trading in a low-volume area where moves can be fast. Expect sharp responses around 3,21x–3,23x and 3,06x–3,08x (liquidity pools).

8. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price below cloud; Tenkan below Kijun; future cloud sloping down; Chikou span below price and cloud. Full bearish stack, no edge for a sustained long until at least Tenkan/Kijun cross and baseline reclaimed; neither is close.

9. Wyckoff lens and candle behavior

• Character: Distribution → markdown. Down days on higher volume, up days on lighter volume, failed rally attempts at resistance, and long upper wicks intraday (e.g., around 3,22x) identify supply overwhelming demand. Friday’s daily candle (Nov 14) was not a classic hammer; today’s small green is tepid and already rejected at R1.

10. Classical chart patterns and structure

• Descending channel/flag after the Nov 10 high with successive lower highs. Intraday, a bear flag formed between 3,140–3,210 and broke down back toward 3,15x–3,16x late session; pattern typically resolves with retests of the prior low zone (3,08x–3,06x).

11. Pivot points (calculated from Nov 14 H/L/C)

• P ≈ 3,142.8; R1 ≈ 3,213.6; R2 ≈ 3,323.5; S1 ≈ 3,033.0; S2 ≈ 2,962.1. Price tagged R1 band (3,213–3,228 overshoot) and failed; now oscillating near P. Classic intraday swing short: sell near R1, target P/S1. Given current 3,161, a bounce into 3,195–3,210 is attractive for risk/reward.

12. Fractals/liquidity and stop zones

• Obvious liquidity above 3,228 and 3,252; any wick up through 3,235–3,255 is likely a stop-run opportunity that should fail unless momentum surges. Downside liquidity pools sit 3,120, 3,090, and especially just above 3,060 (the prior capitulation low 3,063). Expect magnets around these.

13. Intermarket and regime heuristics (non-quant)

• In crypto drawdowns with elevated ATR and negative structure, weekend liquidity often enhances stop-runs followed by mean reversion to the dominant trend (down). Current tape matches that playbook: stop out shorts into 3,21x, then push lower into 3,06x.

Synthesis: what it all means for the next 24 hours

• Confluence for downside:
  • Failed 23.6% Fib retracement and rejection at daily R1 (≈3,213) with a lower high at 3,227.
  • Price below falling 20D/50D MAs and under Ichimoku cloud; MACD negative; RSI not oversold—room to fall.
  • Volume favors sell pressure on down legs; bounces fade quickly.
• Expected path:
  • Short-term: Attempted bounce early session toward 3,195–3,210. If tagged, look for sellers to reassert.
  • Base case (55–65%): Fade resolves lower to 3,120 → 3,090 → 3,060. Brief liquidity sweep to 3,048–3,030 possible if momentum accelerates.
  • Alt case (25–30%): Squeeze through 3,235–3,255 stop pocket; overshoot toward 3,285–3,325 (daily R2) before rolling; trend still down unless 3,325+ holds as support.
  • Low-prob case (10–15%): Strong reversal closing above 3,325 which would open 3,380–3,415 (50%/38.2% Fibs); requires clear momentum/volume shift not presently visible.

Trade plan (tactical short)

• Rationale: Multiple frameworks agree that rallies are for selling until 3,325 is reclaimed on a daily basis. Current microstructure favours fading 3,195–3,210.
• Entry: Optimal limit sell 3,198 (in the 3,195–3,210 supply pocket and just under R1 3,214). If price fails to bounce, consider a secondary momentum entry on a loss of 3,142–3,138 after a weak retest, but the optimal remains selling the pop.
• Stop (invalidation, not part of the required output but vital): 3,256 (above 3,252 daily swing high and 3,235–3,255 stop pocket). Conservative stops can sit 3,285 if sizing is small.
• Take profit: 3,068 primary (just above 3,063 prior low; front-run the level). Stretch targets if momentum expands: 3,033 (S1) and 3,000 round.
• Risk/reward: From 3,198 entry to 3,068 target = 130 pts; to 3,256 stop = 58 pts; R:R ≈ 2.2:1. Improved if fills closer to 3,210–3,214.

What flips this view

• A strong hourly/daily close back above 3,255 with acceptance above 3,260–3,285 turns the tape from “sell rips” to “range” and opens a push to 3,312–3,325; a daily close >3,325 would neutralize the immediate downtrend and postpone shorts until 3,380–3,415.

Bottom line

• The path of least resistance remains down. Use a patient limit to sell strength near 3,198–3,210 and aim to cover into 3,068 as liquidity gets swept near the prior capitulation low. Expect whipsaws, but bears retain control until 3,255–3,325 is decisively reclaimed.