ETH: Fade the Relief Bounce — Short the 3230–3275 Supply Wall

Summary view (24h): Expect a relief bounce into resistance 3230–3275, followed by supply-driven rejection and a drift back toward 3120–3100. Optimal plan: Fade the bounce. Short near resistance; target the 3100 area within 24 hours.

Step-by-step technical breakdown

1. Trend and structure (multi-timeframe daily focus)

• Market structure: Lower highs and lower lows since late Oct. After the Nov 4 capitulation (low ≈3063 intraday; close 3293), price produced a weak bounce to 3583 (Nov 9) and kept printing lower highs: 3583 → 3568 → 3415 → 3233. Recent lows: 3104 → 3093/3007 (LL). This is a classic descending channel/impulse down.
• Context of the last three sessions: Nov 14 close 3104 (bearish), Nov 15 close 3167 (small relief), Nov 16 close 3093 with an intraday low 3007 (longer lower wick; selling exhaustion hint). Current price 3187.8 prints a modest recovery but remains below key near-term resistances.
• Conclusion: Primary trend down; short-term mean-reversion upwards is likely before the next leg lower.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• SMA(7) ≈ 3285 (est.), SMA(14) ≈ 3360, SMA(21) ≈ 3547. Current price 3188 is below all three, confirming a bearish bias.
• EMAs (estimated): EMA(9) ≈ low-3300s; EMA(21) ≈ mid-3400s. 9EMA < 21EMA and price < 9EMA → bear trend intact. Any rally to the 9EMA zone (≈3310–3330) should encounter supply.
• Interpretation: Momentum/trend MAs support selling into strength rather than buying breakdowns here.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) (est.): mid-30s to high-30s after persistent declines; near oversold but not extreme. Nov 14 → Nov 16 showed price lower low (3104 → 3093/3007) with likely slightly higher RSI lows → a mild bullish divergence. That justifies a relief bounce but not a trend reversal.
• Stochastic (daily): Emerging from oversold; likely crossing up. This typically supports a 1–2 day bounce into resistance.
• MACD (12,26,9): Negative and below signal with shrinking histogram on Nov 16–17, consistent with bearish momentum moderating (bounce risk) before trend continuation down.
• Takeaway: Oscillators favor a short-term pop, then resume downtrend.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2) using 20-day mean ≈ 3550 and est. σ ≈ 250: Lower band ≈ 3550 − 2×250 ≈ 3050. Price rebounded off sub-3100 and is between the lower band and midline → classic mean-reversion path to 0.236/0.382 Fibs or 9EMA before sellers reassert.
• ATR(14) est. ≈ 240–280. A 24h range of ~2.5–3.5% (±80–110 points) is typical; spikes to 4–5% are possible. A move from ~3240 to ~3100 (−4.3%) sits within one strong ATR-day.

5. Volume and tape context

• Recent down legs (Nov 4, Nov 14) came with elevated volume; subsequent selloffs show waning volume (Nov 16 lower than Nov 14), hinting at temporary seller fatigue → supports a bounce, not a reversal.
• No evidence of a proper accumulation day (strong up close on expanding volume) near current levels; thus rallies are likely supply-driven fades.

6. Support/resistance map (derived from highs/lows/closes, round numbers, and clustering)

• Immediate support: 3165 (Nov 15 close/pivot), 3120–3095 (recent closing cluster), 3070, and 3007 (Nov 16 intraday low). Psychological: 3000.
• Immediate resistance: 3230–3250 (Nov 13/14 prints and supply shelf), 3278 (23.6% Fib of 4158 → 3007), 3310–3330 (9EMA zone/early Nov closes), 3400–3435 (dense supply), 3447 (38.2% Fib), 3568–3583 (prior bounce peaks, 50% Fib ≈ 3584).
• Highest-probability interaction in next 24h: test 3230–3275 then rejection.

7. Fibonacci framework (swing high 4158 on Oct 26 to swing low 3007 on Nov 16)

• Key levels: 23.6% ≈ 3278; 38.2% ≈ 3447; 50% ≈ 3584; 61.8% ≈ 3721. These align with visible supply shelves. The first meaningful fib confluence is 3230–3278, tightly aligned with recent horizontal resistance. Expect sellers to appear there first.

8. Ichimoku (daily, approximated)

• Price well below the Kumo; bearish. Tenkan (conversion) likely in the 3350–3400 region, Kijun (base) higher (≈3600+). Chikou span below price and cloud. Any bounce toward Tenkan invites selling; no cloud twist/bullish signals yet. This supports the “fade rallies” approach.

9. Regression/channel analysis

• A linear regression channel from late Oct highs shows price hugging the lower band on Nov 14–16 and curling upward toward the midline. Midline sits roughly in the 3300–3350 area. Expect price to gravitate toward that band but find supply before reaching it (i.e., at 3230–3275 first).

10. Candles and pattern read

• Nov 16 candle resembles a hammer-like session (long lower tail near 3007), suggesting seller exhaustion intraday; Nov 17/Current price shows follow-through into resistance zones. Typical behavior: 1–3 bar countertrend move before bears re-engage.

11. Probabilistic 24h path

• Base case (≈60%): Push into 3230–3275, stall, roll over to 3120–3095. Intra-session extremes could probe 3075–3050 on momentum.
• Alternate (≈25%): Shallow bounce caps ~3210–3225, then earlier fade to 3100; if liquidity thin, a wick to 3050–3000 before rebid.
• Low-probability squeeze (≈15%): Break through 3278, tag 3310–3330 (9EMA/anchored VWAP vicinity), then fade back under 3250 by the close.

12. Risk management and trade construction

• Rationale to short: Trend down, price under all key MAs and below the cloud; a nearby, well-defined supply shelf at 3230–3250 backed by 23.6% Fib ≈ 3278; momentum divergences argue for a bounce first, improving entry quality for shorts.
• Optimal short entry: 3240–3255 range (front-run the 23.6% Fib at 3278 and local highs at 3252). Proposed trigger: 3248.
• Take-profit target: 3098 (just above 3095/3120 support cluster; aligns with ~1.5–2× ATR swing from entry).
• Suggested protective stop (analysis-only): 3318–3335. Above 3318, you’re beyond the immediate shelf and inside the 9EMA/mini-breakout zone; invalidates the immediate fade thesis. R:R from 3248 → 3098 (−150) vs stop 3318 (+70) ≈ 2.1:1.

13. What would invalidate the call

• A strong, high-volume daily close above 3335 and follow-through >3400 would shift bias to a deeper corrective rally (toward 3447–3584). That is not the base case for the next 24 hours.

Call and 24h price map

• Direction next 24 hours: Mild bounce to 3230–3275, failure, retrace to 3120–3095; tails could reach 3075–3050 if momentum accelerates.
• Strategy: Sell the rally into 3240–3255; aim to cover near 3098 within the 24h window.