ETH poised for a 24h mean-reversion pop: targeting 3.32k after bullish engulfing off 2.96k swing low

Context and setup

• Instrument: Ethereum (ETH) USD
• Current price: 3187.77
• Horizon: Next 24 hours (tactical trade)
• Data window: 2025-08-21 to 2025-11-18 (daily OHLCV). Today’s live price suggests follow-through after a two-day reversal off new swing lows.
• Regime: Medium-term downtrend since early October; short-term bounce developing from a deeply oversold condition.

1. Price action chronology and market structure

• August peak to late-August spike: Price rallied to 4884 (Aug 22) before forming a broad topping range 4.3k–4.9k.
• September: Lower highs into late September; first material break on Sep 22 and Sep 25, driving to 3.87k.
• October: Attempted recovery to 4.69k on Sep 12 failed; October saw a series of lower highs with a capitulatory selloff Oct 10–11 to 3.75k, then a reflex bounce to ~4.16k by Oct 12–13, followed by grinding weakness into month-end.
• Early November breakdown: Massive two-day leg Nov 3–4 from ~3.9k to ~3.29k (high volume). Subsequent bounces faded below key prior supports, sustaining lower-highs/lower-lows structure.
• Mid-November bear leg: Nov 13–17 extended the downtrend to a fresh swing low at 2957 (Nov 17), closing 3025.
• Reversal signal: Nov 18 printed a wide-range up day (2948–3168) closing 3123, effectively a bullish engulfing of the prior day’s real body. Current price 3188 extends the reversal, now trading above 11/18 high (3168) and approaching 11/17 high (3218).
• Short-term structure: From the 2957 low, ETH is making a tentative higher low/higher high sequence intraday; first notable resistance 3211–3220, then 3299–3325.

2. Support and resistance (confluence map)

• Immediate supports: 3180–3170 (intraday pullback zone), 3155–3120 (11/18 close and 23.6% Fib from 3656->2957 at ~3122), 3090–3050, 3020–3000 (round number, lower band cluster), 2957 (swing low/invalidation for the bounce).
• Near resistances: 3211–3220 (pivot R1 from 11/18 and prior swing high), 3250–3260 (prior micro pivot), 3299–3305 (pivot R2), 3320–3325 (38.2% Fib from 3912->2957 at ~3322), 3400–3435 (heavy supply: 20D SMA ~3430 and 50% Fib 3912->2957 at 3435), 3490–3550 (61.8% 3912->2957 at ~3547 and prior swing supply).
• Takeaway: Strong confluence exists around 3299–3325 (R2 + 38.2% retrace) and again around 3400–3435 (SMA20 + 50% retrace and historical supply). The first is the realistic 24h magnet; the second is unlikely in 24h barring a squeeze.

3. Trend and moving averages

• 20D SMA ≈ 3430 (estimated from last 20 closes). Price is ~7% below this mean; reversion tendency favors an upswing toward the 3300s first.
• 50D SMA (approx) higher, reflecting the persistent downtrend since September–October; still downward sloping. Medium-term trend remains bearish—this is a countertrend bounce setup.
• Short EMAs (8/13): Price reclaiming the 8EMA region (est. low 3200s). A firm 8EMA recapture often precedes a test of the 21EMA/20SMA.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: Likely lifted from oversold ≈28–32 on Nov 17 to mid-30s/low-40s now. Price printed a lower low (2957) while RSI likely held a higher low vs prior major downswing—classic bullish divergence. This supports a 1–3 day mean-reversion bounce.
• Stochastics: Turning up from oversold with a bullish cross—supports further upside over the next sessions.
• MACD: Still negative but histogram contracting; a shallow bullish cross on faster settings is plausible if price sustains above 3180–3200, adding fuel toward 3299–3325.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily: Elevated (roughly 200–260). A 24h swing of 120–180 points is well within typical range.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ~3430. Lower band tagged in the 3000–3050 area; price is bouncing from the lower band back toward the midline. In BB context, the 3320s is a sensible first target within 24h as part of mean reversion.
• Keltner Channels (EMA20 ± ATR): Price has reclaimed from outside-lower to inside the channel; a move toward the centerline (low 3300s) is consistent with ATR statistics.

6. Volume and flow

• Heavy sell volume on Nov 3–4 and again Nov 13–14, typical of capitulation legs.
• Nov 18 up-day volume (41.6B) is sizeable for a bounce, indicative of short-covering and dip demand.
• The reversal candle’s higher close on meaningful volume improves the odds of follow-through into overhead liquidity pockets (3210s first, then near 3300–3325).

7. Fibonacci frameworks (multiple anchors)

• Swing Nov 3 high 3912 to Nov 17 low 2957: 23.6% = 3182 (now tested), 38.2% = 3322, 50% = 3435, 61.8% = 3547. Price sitting at 23.6%; next magnet 3322 is a classic countertrend target.
• Swing Nov 10 high 3656 to Nov 17 low 2957: 23.6% ≈ 3122 (tagged), 38.2% ≈ 3225, 50% ≈ 3306, 61.8% ≈ 3389. Clustered resistance 3225/3306 aligns with pivot R1/R2 and the 3322 level from the larger swing—strong confluence 3299–3325.
• Macro Aug 22 high 4884 to Nov 17 low 2957: 23.6% ≈ 3412, 38.2% ≈ 3693. This underscores the heavier supply around 3.40k+—unlikely to be reached in 24h absent a large squeeze; it frames 3320s as a prudent near-term target.

8. Pattern recognition

• Candles: Nov 17 likely hammer-type (long lower shadow, close off the lows), confirmed by Nov 18 bullish engulfing of the prior real body. Today’s price trading above 11/18 high adds confirmation.
• Channel: A descending channel from Sep highs; current bounce is off/near the lower channel boundary (~3.0k area). Typical path is mean reversion toward the channel midline (~3.25–3.35k short-term).
• No clear topping pattern on the immediate bounce; rather, a corrective A-B-C up structure is probable, with A to ~3180s, B pullback toward ~3170/3150, C extension toward 3299–3325.

9. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price well below cloud; Kijun/Tenkan above price. This confirms the broader bearish regime, but Tenkan recapture in the low 3200s often precedes a test of Kijun/high-3200s to 3300s. Expect resistance to mount near 3300–3350.

10. Pivots (derived from 11/18 OHLC)

• Pivot P ≈ 3079.7; R1 ≈ 3211.4; R2 ≈ 3299.7; R3 ≈ 3431.4.
• Current price 3188 sits between P and R1 (just below R1). A typical intraday sequence: probe R1 (3211), brief pullback, extend to R2 (3300). R3 unlikely without a squeeze.

11. Probabilistic path for the next 24 hours

• Base case (≈60%): Continuation of the mean-reversion bounce. Price defends 3150–3180 on dips, breaks/holds above 3211–3220, then pushes into 3299–3325. Intraday consolidation is likely near 3215 and 3295.
• Range case (≈30%): Chop between 3140–3220 if buyers fail to hold above 3211 on first attempt; eventual late-session revisit of 3200–3250, but without decisive R2 tag.
• Bearish tail (≈10%): A swift risk-off move breaks 3120, retesting 3050–3020, with an outside chance of a spike to the 3000–2960 demand. This would invalidate the immediate bounce thesis.

12. Risk, invalidation, and calibration

• Invalidation for the long idea: A daily slip back below 3120 and sustained trade under 3090 would suggest bounce failure and open 3020–3000 retest. True invalidation of the reversal is a new low below 2957.
• Skew: Reward-to-risk for a tactical long from ~3170–3180 toward 3320s is favorable within 24h, given ATR and multi-tool confluence.

13. Synthesis and decision

• Multiple independent tools (candles, RSI/MACD, Bollinger/Keltner, Fib clusters, pivots, and channel analysis) align on a short-term mean reversion toward 3299–3325. Broader trend is still down, so this is a countertrend trade with modest target and tight invalidation.
• Therefore, bias for the next 24 hours: Buy the dip for a push into 3.30–3.33k.

Execution plan

• Entry: Buy on a modest pullback into 3170–3180 (near intraday support and just under current price for favorable R:R). If no pullback, a momentum add-on above 3215 on a retest works, but the optimal single print for this plan is 3178.
• Take profit: 3322 (aligns with 38.2% retrace of 3912->2957 and near pivot R2 extension zone 3299–3305).
• Note: This is a tactical countertrend trade; maintain discipline. Not financial advice; crypto is volatile.