ETH: Hammered But Springing — Double Bottom Sets Up a 24h Relief Rally

Timeframe and data context

• Instrument: Ethereum (ETH), currency USD
• Data window: 2025-08-22 to 2025-11-19 (daily candles); current spot: 2025-11-20 22:15 UTC at 3187.77
• Market regime: Medium-term downtrend with high volatility since early October; short-term oversold with a bounce underway today

1. Price action and market structure

• August rally peak near 4954 (8/24) gave way to lower highs and lower lows from mid-September onward
• Major breakdowns: 10/10 (intraday low 3460, capitulative volume), follow-through weakness into early November
• November sequence: 11/03 close 3602 → 11/04 capitulation low 3063, close 3293 → range-bound rebound to 3568 (11/10) → renewed selloff to 3024 (11/17 close) and a marginal lower close 3023 (11/19)
• Notable 11/19 candle: narrow high (equal to open) and deep low 2871, closing back at 3023—a long lower wick/hammer-type structure indicating demand below 3000
• Today’s spot (3188) is reclaiming above yesterday’s close, confirming a short-term bounce attempt
• Short-term structure: potential double bottom at ~3020–3025 (11/17 and 11/19 closes), with a liquidity sweep to 2871 on 11/19

2. Key levels (support/resistance)

• Supports: 3120–3160 (minor intraday shelf), 3090 (pre-bounce retest), 3020–3030 (double-bottom closes), 2957 (11/17 intraday low), 2871 (11/19 spike low)
• Resistances: 3230–3250 (11/13 close 3233 / pivot R2 zone), 3290–3315 (11/04 close 3293, 11/06 close 3312), 3400–3435 (round number + 11/07 close 3435), 3565–3585 (11/09–11/10 cluster), 3656 (11/10 swing high)
• Classic daily pivot levels from 11/19 (H=3122.65, L=2871.23, C=3023.07): P=3005.65, R1=3140.07, R2=3257.07, R3=3391.49, S1=2888.65, S2=2754.23 • Today’s price has reclaimed R1; next pivot magnet is R2 ≈ 3257, then R3 ≈ 3391

3. Trend and moving averages

• 20D SMA (approx): ~3392 based on last 20 closes—price is below, indicating bearish intermediate trend
• 9D SMA (approx): ~3177—price is slightly above, supportive of a short-term bullish mean-reversion move
• 50D/200D: Not computed exactly, but clearly above current price (given the long slide from ~4500+), confirming the dominant bearish regime

4. Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) qualitative read: After persistent declines, RSI has been in/near bearish territory. The 11/19 hammer with today’s bounce suggests RSI curling up from oversold. Expect RSI to push toward the mid-40s on a continuation to 3250–3330
• Stochastic oscillator (qualitative): Likely crossed up from oversold, favoring a 1–2 day relief rally unless rejected sharply at first resistance
• MACD (daily): Deeply negative, but histogram contraction likely begins if price prints consecutive green bars; a bullish cross is premature but a positive momentum inflection is plausible near-term
• Divergences: Potential bullish momentum divergence—price made a marginal lower close on 11/19 vs 11/17, but the long lower wick and improving intraday momentum suggest weakening downside pressure

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) qualitative: Elevated post-crash; daily ranges 200–500+ have been common. A 24h move of ±150–300 is plausible
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ~3392; lower band likely near ~2990–3020 given recent volatility. 11/19 effectively tagged the lower band and reversed—a typical setup for a mean-reversion pop toward the mid/upper band region (initially ~3250–3330 before the center line)

6. Volume and flow

• Highest recent volumes occurred on breakdown days (10/10, 11/04), marking capitulative flows
• 11/19 saw heavy range with a deep wick—suggesting absorption below 3000
• As price bounces today, a modest uptick in volume would corroborate short-covering and opportunistic dip buying; OBV trend remains down but may tick up if today closes strong

7. Ichimoku lens (daily)

• Price is well below the Kumo; trend bias remains bearish
• Tenkan likely near 3170–3200; Kijun higher (likely mid-3300s to mid-3500s). Reclaiming and holding above Tenkan is step one (happening intraday). A test of Kijun typically aligns with 0.5–0.618 retracement (3335–3415)—aggressive target for a 24–48h bounce, though 24h may cap near 3330–3350

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing: 11/10 high 3656 → 11/19 close/low region 3023 • 0.382 = 3265, 0.5 = 3339, 0.618 = 3414 • Probable 24h resistance cluster: 3265–3340 (confluence with pivot R2 and prior closes)
• Alternate swing: 11/04 low 3063 → 11/10 high 3656 • Price currently below the 61.8% of this up leg, consistent with a corrective grind but allows for a counter-trend rally to retest 0.5–0.618 zones near 3335–3415

9. Pattern recognition

• Bullish: Double-bottom attempt near 3020 (closes) with a deep undercut (2871) and immediate reclaim—a classic spring/undercut-and-rally pattern
• Candle: 11/19 hammer-like reversal; today green follow-through validates near-term reversal bias
• Channel: A descending channel from mid-September; the upper channel boundary for the next session likely intersects in the low- to mid-3300s

10. Wyckoff/Elliott context

• Wyckoff: 11/19 looks like a selling climax/automatic rally initiation (Phase A). Expect an initial AR toward 3250–3330, then a secondary test later. This fits a 24–48h relief rally scenario
• Elliott: The move from 11/10 to 11/19 resembles a 5-wave decline; a corrective A-B-C bounce toward 0.382–0.5 retrace (3265–3340) is typical

11. Pivot and mean-reversion confluence

• Classic pivots: With R1 reclaimed (3140), the path of least resistance intraday is toward R2 (3257). Above that, momentum could carry to the 0.5 Fib/3300–3340 band before supply reappears
• 20D SMA at ~3392 sits near R3 (3391), a strong ceiling for the immediate 24h

12. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Relief rally extends to 3260–3335, stalling at first heavy supply cluster; intraday dips likely get bought above 3120–3160
• Bear case (25%): Rejection beneath 3230–3250 leads to a fade back to 3090–3120, potential retest of 3020 if macro pressure returns
• Bull extension (15%): Squeeze continues through 3335 toward 3385–3415 (0.618), less likely within 24h but possible on strong short covering

13. Trade plan (tactical, 24h horizon)

• Bias: Counter-trend long for a relief move into layered resistance
• Optimal entry (limit): 3158 on a minor pullback toward reclaimed short-term averages/support (between R1 3140 and intraday support ~3160)
• Initial target (TP): 3328 (confluence near 0.5 retrace 3339 zone; front-run at 3328 to increase fill probability)
• Risk management (not part of order fields but essential): • Protective stop: 3078 (below intraday shelf and above the double-bottom line, minimizing the chance of a wick-out while respecting risk) • Alternative tighter stop: 3098 for higher R multiples but greater stop-out risk • If the 3158 limit does not fill and price breaks above 3235–3250 with momentum, a secondary breakout entry could be used—but the primary plan aims to buy the dip
• Expected R:R (using 3158→3328 TP and 3158→3078 SL): Reward ~+170, Risk ~−80, R:R ≈ 2.1:1

14. Confirmation and invalidation triggers

• Confirmation: Hold above 3160–3180 post-entry, and reclaim 3230–3250 region with rising intraday volume
• Invalidation: Loss of 3120 and especially a close back under 3090 warns of another sweep into 3020–3000, negating the relief rally setup

15. Summary and 24h prediction

• Multiple tools (hammer reversal, double-bottom attempt, Bollinger lower-band tap, RSI/Stoch curling up, pivot reclaim, Fib confluence) indicate a high-probability 1-day relief bounce toward 3260–3330
• Medium-term trend remains bearish; the trade is tactical. Expect consolidation or rejection near 3330–3350 if reached within the window
• Projected 24h range: 3090–3335, with a central tendency to test 3257–3330