ETH: Bear-Flag Coil Under Pivot—Sell the Rip into 2758 for a Drive Toward 2668

Step-by-step multi-timeframe technical review and 24h outlook

1. Price context and structure

• Macro context (daily): ETH has cascaded from the 4.7k–4.9k area (late Aug) into a persistent sequence of lower highs and lower lows, accelerating from early Nov. A decisive breakdown on Nov 4–14, followed by further weakness to a new swing low on Nov 21 (2626.87), puts price firmly in a bearish regime.
• Current spot: 2742.20, sitting in a tight intraday coil (2705–2779 range on Nov 22). This is a pause within a broader downtrend; structure is a potential bear flag/rectangle under key broken supports.
• Nearby levels: Support cluster 2705/2685, then 2635 (pivot S1) and 2627 (swing low). Overhead supply 2753–2760 (pivot zone and 50% retrace of 2627→2881), 2783–2785 (0.382 retrace), then 2880–2888 (prior day high / R1).

2. Trend diagnostics (MAs and slope)

• Daily trend: Price is well below likely 20/50/100/200-day SMAs after the sharp November drawdown. Even without exact prints, the moving average stack will be above price and downward sloping. That is classic bearish alignment.
• 4H/1H trend: Short-term moving averages have flattened within today’s range but remain beneath higher timeframe MAs, indicating only a local balance inside a larger downtrend.
• Takeaway: The path of least resistance is still down; rallies into resistance are more likely to be sold.

3. Momentum (RSI/MACD/structure)

• Daily RSI: Likely in the lower band (oversold/weak, ~30–35) after printing a new low yesterday. This supports either a) short-lived mean reversion pops, or b) continued grind with bearish momentum. It does not yet signal a robust reversal.
• 1H RSI: Likely neutral-midrange given today’s 2705–2779 chop, i.e., no strong intraday momentum leadership.
• MACD (daily): Deeply negative after the breakdown; histogram may be moderating marginally due to today’s pause but is still below zero. A daily momentum turn needs time; near-term bias remains bearish.
• Divergences: No reliable multi-touch bullish divergence is evident across daily closes; the new low on Nov 21 undercut prior lows.

4. Volatility and compression (ATR/Bollinger)

• Daily ATR has expanded substantially this month, but Nov 22 has compressed intraday (tight 75-ish range). Post-crash compressions often precede a directional break, with the prevailing trend (down) favored unless bulls reclaim key pivots.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Price hugged/penetrated the lower band into Nov 21; today sits near/just above the lower band area. That positioning favors either: a) mean reversion to the mid-band on multi-day horizons, or b) an immediate continuation lower after this pause. Within 24h, the balance of probabilities is a test lower unless bulls regain the pivot.

5. Volume and participation

• Nov 21 showed heavy volume on the selloff (capitulation-like energy). Today’s weekend tape is notably lighter; rebounds lacking strong volume confirmation tend to fade. Volume profile likely shows a high-volume node building ~2720–2760; losing it would open a vacuum toward 2680/2635.

6. Fibonacci mapping and confluence

• From Nov 21 low 2626.9 to the Nov 21 high 2880.6:
  • 0.382 retrace ≈ 2783.5
  • 0.5 retrace ≈ 2753.8
  • 0.618 retrace ≈ 2723.5
• Today’s action trades between 0.5 and 0.618, clustering with the daily pivot. Rejection at 2754–2760 (0.5 + pivot) is bearish; a push through 2783/2785 would be the first signal of a squeeze toward 2830–2880.
• From the larger swing 4250 (Oct 27) to 2627 (Nov 21): price remains below the 0.236 retrace (~3010), underscoring that bigger-picture rallies are still corrective.

7. Pivot points (classic) using Nov 21 H/L/C

• P ≈ 2757.7; R1 ≈ 2888.6; S1 ≈ 2634.8; R2 ≈ 3011.5; S2 ≈ 2504.0
• Price is oscillating just under P; failure to sustain above P tilts odds toward S1 (2635) in the next 24h. Acceptance above P and 2783 would target the mid 28xx then R1.

8. Market profile / VWAP (intraday)

• With light, uneven weekend volumes, the effective VWAP proxy hovers around the mid-range 2745–2750. Current price 2742 is slightly below, indicating mild intraday overhead supply. Rejections at VWAP/pivot are good short triggers in downtrends.

9. Ichimoku (directional regime)

• Daily: Price below cloud, Tenkan below Kijun, Span A < Span B, and lagging span trapped under price. This is a fully bearish configuration; any bounce below the cloud is typically corrective.
• 1H/4H: Price likely inside/below a thin cloud; until conversion/base lines recapture and hold above 2785–2800, signals remain non-bullish.

10. Candles and patterns

• Nov 21: Large tail through 2627 then close at 2766 suggests short-covering intraday. However, today’s narrow candles (doji-like) under the pivot indicate indecision rather than impulsive buying.
• Intraday: A rectangle/coil between 2705 and 2779. In context of the downtrend, that’s a bear flag risk.

11. Scenario framework (next 24 hours)

• Bear continuation (base case ~60%): Rejection in 2754–2765 zone leads to a push below 2723 → 2705; if 2705 breaks on rising momentum, quick extension to 2685 and 2660–2635 (S1). Liquidity gap could accelerate a wick toward 2627.
• Range retention (neutral ~25%): Continued chop 2710–2765 into the weekend close, with no decisive break until Monday’s liquidity returns.
• Bull squeeze (contrarian ~15%): A clean reclaim and hold above 2758–2765 plus a 1H close above 2783 opens 2810/2830 and possibly a test toward 2880 (R1). Would require volume expansion and breadth—less likely over weekend but possible via thin order books.

12. Risk management and invalidation

• For shorts: Invalidation on sustained reclaim above 2785–2795 (over 0.382 fib and the pivot cluster with acceptance), as that invites a squeeze to 2830–2880.
• For longs: Invalidation below 2700/2690; losing 2685 increases risk of a rapid 2635/2627 test.

13. Synthesis and trade bias

• Multi-timeframe trend is down; momentum is negative; intraday sits just under the daily pivot and 0.5 retrace with weak weekend participation. The most consistent play is to sell strength into 2755–2765 with tight risk, aiming for a range break toward 2685–2660 and potentially 2635 if momentum expands.

14. Execution plan (24h)

• Entry (short): Prefer a limit sell at 2758 near the pivot/0.5 fib, where risk is tight and order flow often rejects. If price fails to reach 2758, a breakdown entry is acceptable on a 1H close below 2723, but the optimal R:R is the sell-the-rip into 2755–2765.
• Target: Primary TP 2668 (front-runs 2660/2635 cluster); secondary extension (discretionary) 2638–2640 if momentum is strong. Since the prompt requests a single close price, set 2668.
• Stop (for planning, not recorded field): 2792 (above 2785–2788 supply shelf). Risk ≈ 34; Reward ≈ 90 → R:R ≈ 2.6:1.

Bottom line

• Bias: Sell the bounce. Expect a test of 2700/2685 and a run toward 2668 within 24 hours unless bulls reclaim and hold above 2785.