ETH: From Capitulation to Compression — Position for a Relief Pop Above 2.85k

Executive summary

• Regime: Daily downtrend since early October with accelerating selloffs into mid–November; short-term (intra-day to 1–3 days) momentum has flipped positive after a capitulation low on Nov 21.
• Current: $2,836.39. Price is basing above the 2,765–2,790 demand zone and compressing under 2,856 resistance. Hourly trend is gently rising; volatility has contracted, favoring a coil-and-break move within the next 24 hours.
• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish with a dip-to-buy profile. Base case: retest 2,810–2,820, then attempt a push toward 2,885–2,925 if 2,856 breaks on volume.

Data digestion and context

• Daily tape: From the Sept highs (4,763) ETH rolled into a sequence of lower highs/lows. Large gap-down/selloff legs: 9/25, 10/10, 11/4, 11/20–21. Nov 21 printed a wide-range day (open 2,829, high 2,881, low 2,627, close 2,766) with a long lower wick and heavy volume, typical of capitulation/spring behavior. Subsequent sessions: inside/basing (Nov 22) and a constructive green close so far today.
• Intraday (hourly) 11/23: Range 2,777–2,856 with multiple higher lows: 2,771 → 2,807 → 2,788 → 2,806 → 2,821. Price is compressing between 2,820 support and 2,855 resistance with rising participation during US afternoon hours.

Market structure and levels

• Major resistance stack overhead: 2,856 (today’s hourly high), 2,880–2,900 (round-number supply and 11/21 high), 2,950–3,000 (psych + prior breakdown shelf), 3,130 (Fib 23.6% of 4,763 → 2,627 leg), 3,440 (Fib 38.2%).
• Support: 2,820–2,830 (hourly POC-like zone), 2,790 (11/20 swing low vicinity), 2,765–2,770 (11/21 close and Nov 22 settlement), 2,720, 2,627 (capitulation low; pivotal).

Moving averages (MA/EMA)

• Daily 20/50/200 SMA/EMA (estimated from provided series): Price is well below the 50D and 200D, both sloping down—confirming a primary downtrend. The 20D is also above current price but flattening as the last three sessions stabilized; that often precedes mean-reversion bounces toward the 20D.
• Hourly EMAs: The 20EMA has crossed above the 50EMA, and both are curling up; price trades above the 20/50 EMAs and near/above the 200EMA, indicating a short-term bullish bias while above ~2,810–2,820. A loss of the 200EMA on the hour would negate the intraday up-bias.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (inferred): Rebounded from oversold sub-30 readings into the mid-30s/low-40s. Bullish momentum divergence likely formed between Nov 20 (low 2,791) and Nov 21 (lower low 2,627) with higher RSI, typically preceding relief rallies.
• Hourly RSI: Oscillating 45–60 through the session—constructive but not overbought; leaves room to extend toward high-60s on a breakout through 2,856.
• MACD: Daily MACD line below signal but histogram has been contracting (less negative) for several sessions—early sign of downside exhaustion. Hourly MACD is modestly positive and flat-to-rising, consistent with consolidation before an expansion.

Volatility and bands

• Daily ATR(14) (approx): ~220–260 points (~7–9%). With current price at ~2,836, a typical 24h range could span ~2,730–2,960 if realized. This contextualizes feasible targets.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Price rode the lower band into Nov 21 and is now curling inward; early mean reversion toward the mid-band (which likely sits above 3,000) remains possible over several days, but near-term the band pinch favors a bounce-and-test.
• Hourly Bollinger: Bands narrowed through midday, then started to open modestly; a squeeze-and-release setup favors a directional move. Given the intraday higher-lows, odds tilt to an upside expansion if 2,856 breaks on volume.

Volume/flow analysis

• Daily: Capitulation-like volume spikes on large down days (10/10, 11/4, 11/21). Post-capitulation, volume receded while price held gains—typical of absorption. This suggests supply fatigue at/under 2,700–2,800.
• Intraday: Notable prints around 2,810–2,835 during US hours, implying a developing point of control (POC) near 2,820–2,830. Demand showed at every dip into high-2,70x/low-2,80x.
• OBV (qualitative): Flattening after a prolonged decline; supports basing hypothesis.

Fibonacci analysis (swing 4,763 high → 2,627 low)

• 23.6%: ~3,130 – first meaningful recovery target if a larger relief rally takes hold (beyond 24h horizon).
• 38.2%: ~3,444 – heavier resistance cluster aligning with prior congestion (multi-week).
• Near-term context: Current price remains below the 23.6% retracement, underscoring that any bounce inside 24h is a countertrend move within a larger downtrend.

Ichimoku (contextual, qualitative)

• Daily: Price below Kumo; Tenkan below Kijun; Span A < Span B—bearish regime. Distance to Kijun suggests potential for snapback rallies when selling pressure abates.
• Hourly: Price above Tenkan and near/above Kijun with a thin forward cloud; cloud twist approaching suggests a possible bullish transition if 2,856–2,880 clears.

Pattern recognition

• Daily falling wedge/descending channel from Oct to Nov appears to be flattening at the base with a possible terminal thrust (the Nov 21 spring). Confirmation would be a sequence of higher highs above 2,900 → 3,000 → 3,130.
• Candlesticks: Nov 21 long lower shadow (spring/capitulation) followed by stabilization—bullish short-term. No bearish reversal candle has printed since.
• Hourly: Ascending channel/flag from 2,771 to 2,856; repeated support tags holding; micro double-top risk at 2,856, but underlying higher-lows favor an eventual breach.

Wyckoff perspective

• Phase C spring at 2,627 followed by a Sign of Strength (SOS) to 2,856, now testing Last Point of Support (LPS) near 2,810–2,830. If LPS holds, markup toward 2,900–2,925 is the next logical step. Failure of LPS targets a shakeout back to 2,770–2,790.

Mean reversion and VWAP (intraday)

• Session VWAP proxy sits in the 2,820s. Price oscillating around/above VWAP indicates steady accumulation rather than distribution. Buy-the-dip toward VWAP remains the higher expectancy tactic while structure holds.

Risk factors and intermarket

• Weekend liquidity and Asia open gaps can exaggerate moves. BTC correlation can amplify direction; a BTC push through its intraday highs would likely pull ETH through 2,856 quickly. Conversely, a BTC fade could test 2,790 again.

Scenario analysis (24h)

• Bullish base case (55%): Hold 2,810–2,820 on dips; break 2,856; extend to 2,885–2,925. Stretch target on momentum: 2,950. Preferred path: Dip to ~2,818 → breakout push → stall below 2,925.
• Range/neutral (25%): 2,790–2,856 ping-pong; end near 2,830–2,845 as compression persists.
• Bearish (20%): Lose 2,790; accelerate to 2,765; tail risk probe 2,720. Only a decisive hourly close below ~2,765 would re-open the path to 2,627, which is a lower-probability tail inside 24h.

Trade plan (tactical, 24h horizon)

• Bias: Buy dips within the 2,810–2,830 demand band while intraday structure and EMAs hold.
• Entry (optimal): 2,818 buy limit (pullback toward VWAP/POC and 1H EMAs). Alternate momentum trigger: add on confirmed break/hold above 2,856 if not filled.
• Target (TP): 2,920 initial; scale-out zone 2,885–2,925. Stretch: 2,950 if momentum accelerates.
• Invalidation (risk control, not part of output fields): Hourly close below 2,765 or fast break <2,750 suggests standing aside; that would negate the LPS thesis and risk a revisit of 2,720/2,627.

Why Buy, not Sell

• Confluence of short-term higher-lows, post-capitulation basing, hourly EMA alignment, bullish momentum divergences, and a nearby, clearly defined invalidation level provide asymmetry. Shorting into 2,820–2,830 risks being trapped if 2,856 breaks; better short entries lie higher (2,900–3,000) or on a confirmed breakdown below 2,765.

24-hour forecast

• Expected path: Early pullback into 2,812–2,822, stabilization, then an attempt to break 2,856. If volume confirms, extension toward 2,900–2,925 by the US session tomorrow. Expected realized range: 2,780–2,925, with upside skew.