ETH: Dip-Buy Setup Into 3000–3050 After Inverse H&S Breakout

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish after a strong intraday impulse, expecting a pullback into 2895–2930 followed by a second leg toward 3000–3050.
• Preferred tactic: Buy the dip near pivot/38.2% retrace confluence, ride a continuation into the R1 zone around 3040.
• Key levels: Support 2899–2928 (confluence), 2874/2850 (deeper retrace). Resistance 2981–3000, 3025–3050.

1. Multi-timeframe price action and structure

• Daily context (Aug–Nov 2025):
  • Large swing down from early Sept highs (~4700–4800) to Nov 21 low (2626.9). Trend remains bearish on higher timeframes, but the last 3 sessions show basing and a relief bounce.
  • Sequence around the low: 11/21 printed the capitulation low with heavy volume, 11/22 doji-like stabilization, 11/23 higher close, 11/24 strong impulsive advance to 2981.8. This is characteristic of a post-capitulation A-wave recovery inside a broader downtrend.
• 4H/1H structure (last 48h):
  • 1H shows a clean inverse head-and-shoulders:
    • Left shoulder ~2790 (around 01:00–05:00 UTC), head ~2788–2790 (09:00), right shoulder ~2816–2820 (14:00).
    • Neckline ~2863–2867. Breakout at 17:00 ignited a trend leg to 2956–2982, then consolidation 2955–2975.
  • Today’s rally changed microstructure to bullish: higher highs/higher lows, breakout above multiple intraday swing highs (2867, 2890, 2925).

2. Volatility and range framework

• Daily ATR (visual estimate) expanded materially during the mid-Nov selloff; current effective daily range ~200–300+. Today’s H–L = ~213, consistent with a still-elevated vol regime.
• Expectation next 24h: 180–260 range. Probable path: mean reversion into 2895–2930 (38.2–Pivot) followed by continuation push into 3000–3050.

3. Volume and VSA reads

• Intraday volume surged on the breakout candles (17:00–20:00 UTC), indicating genuine demand, not a low-liquidity drift. Subsequent consolidation saw balanced volume, no aggressive selling tail—bullish absorption.
• The 11/21–11/24 sequence: rising closes on diminishing downside volume—classic early-stage accumulation after capitulation.

4. Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily: Price still below the declining 50D/100D MAs (implied ≳3500), so the primary trend is down; any longs are countertrend at the daily scale.
• 4H/1H EMAs: 8/21/55 EMA ribbon on 1H turned positive post-breakout; price acceptance above the ribbon suggests buy-the-dip into the ribbon/mid-band is favored. Estimated 1H 20EMA cluster ~2915–2935.

5. Momentum oscillators

• 1H RSI: Pushed into the 70s on the breakout; now decelerating to low/mid-60s during consolidation—typical bull-flag momentum reset.
• Daily RSI: Recovering from oversold (mid-20s/low-30s) toward mid-30s/low-40s; room to extend upward before hitting overbought.
• MACD:
  • Daily: Negative but histogram contracting, pointing to waning bearish momentum and potential bullish cross if follow-through continues.
  • 1H: Positive MACD with a shallow pullback—signals momentum pause rather than reversal.
• Stochastics (1H): Likely cycling down from overbought; an upturn from 40–50 would align with dip-buy trigger timing.

6. Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels

• 1H BB: Price rode the upper band to 2980; now coiling toward the mid-band near 2925–2940. A tag of mid-band that holds would be a textbook continuation setup.
• BB–KC relationship: Prior squeeze released upward; no immediate re-squeeze yet, supporting a two-leg advance structure.

7. Ichimoku (1H focus)

• Price above the Kumo; Tenkan > Kijun; future cloud turning up. Kijun likely around 2910–2925. A pullback toward Kijun with hold is a high-probability continuation pattern.

8. Fibonacci and measured moves

• Swing ref: 11/21 low 2766 (close basis 2767.6 area) to 11/24 high 2981.8.
  • 23.6%: ~2935; 38.2%: ~2899; 50%: ~2875; 61.8%: ~2849.
  • Ideal buy zone: 2899–2935 (confluence with pivots, EMA, Kijun, BB mid).
• Inverse H&S measured move:
  • Neckline ~2865, head ~2788; height ~77. First target ~2942 (achieved). 1.618 extension ~2989 (nearly tagged). A secondary extension move often aims toward round-number/supply clusters—3000–3050.
• Fib extensions from the post-breakout flag: A 1:1 leg from ~2925 projects ~2985–2995; 1.272–1.618 extension: 3020–3050.

9. Market profile/value area (heuristic)

• Today’s value migrated higher from sub-2850 to ~2920–2960. Acceptance above 2940 during US hours suggests buyers in control. A rotation to 2905–2925 would be a fair-value test; sustained bids there likely propel a value shift toward 2980–3010.

10. Pivot points (classic)

• Using 11/24 H/L/C (2981.85/2768.78/2963.44):
  • Pivot P ≈ 2904.69
  • R1 ≈ 3040.60
  • R2 ≈ 3117.76
  • S1 ≈ 2827.53
• Price currently above Pivot and below R1; typical bullish play is buy near P with target near R1.

11. Trendlines and wedges

• Daily: Price still below the dominant bearish trendline from mid-Oct; however, intraday a micro falling channel broke topside this session—a positive micro-signal. A daily falling wedge from late Oct into 11/21 may be in the process of resolving up; confirmation requires a daily close above ~3025–3050.

12. Elliott wave sketch (tactical)

• Larger count: 5-wave decline into 11/21 appears plausible. Current move likely corrective A-B-C up.
  • A completed near 2980; B pullback projected 2895–2925; C extension targets 3005–3050.

13. Liquidity and stop zones

• Resting liquidity pockets:
  • Below: 2935/2925 (neckline retest), 2905 (pivot), 2899 (38.2%), 2874 (50%).
  • Above: 2981 swing high, 3000 psych, 3025 prior micro supply, 3040 pivot R1.
• Expect a stop-hunt probe sub-2940 to fill bids before the next leg.

14. Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (60%): Pullback to 2895–2930, hold >2890, then push through 2981 to 3000–3040; day ends near 2990–3020.
• Bearish alt (25%): Deeper retrace to 2874–2850 (50–61.8%), bounce fails at ~2950; range closes 2880–2940.
• Bull squeeze (15%): Minimal dip; immediate break over 2982 leads to fast run to 3025–3050, then late-day consolidation ~3000.

15. Risk management notes

• Invalidation for the long idea: sustained acceptance below 2845–2850 (61.8%/prior swing base) negates the immediate continuation structure.
• Optional protective stop (not part of the required fields): 2842–2849. Reward-to-risk to 3040 is attractive if entry is ~2905–2925.

16. Synthesis of indicators

• Bullish: Inverse H&S completion, price > 1H cloud/EMA ribbon, RSI recovery, MACD histogram improving, BB mid-band test pending, pivot confluence at ~2905, impulsive up-volume.
• Bearish constraints: Higher-timeframe downtrend still intact; 3000–3050 is a heavy supply shelf and daily R1 cluster; volatility remains elevated.
• Net: Tactical long favored on pullback with targets into 3000–3050. Expect chop but higher lows to hold if the base is real.

Actionable plan

• Decision: Buy the dip (Long) into 2899–2930 with target around 3040–3050 within 24h, aligning with R1 and prior supply.
• Open (limit) near 2910 (pivot/38.2%/EMA/Kijun confluence) to maximize risk-adjusted return.
• Target: 3040–3050 (take profit in front of R1; choose 3042 for precision).
• If price does not retrace and breaks 2982 first: conservative traders can wait for a 2975–2980 breakout and use a momentum entry with tighter targets; however, the optimal price per this plan remains the pullback.

24h price path projection

• Expected range: 2885–3050.
• Likely close: 2990–3020, with multiple tests of 2981–3000 intraday.