ETH poised for a neckline test: shallow fib retest sets up a 2,980–3,000 squeeze

Timeframes assessed: Daily (primary), 4H/1H (tactical), last 24h microstructure.

1. Market structure and trend context

• Higher timeframe regime: ETH remains in a broader downtrend from the September peak (~4,700–4,800) with a sequence of lower highs/lows into the November washout (11/4 low ~3,063 intraday; 11/21 low close cluster ~2,766 with an absolute low ~2,627). Current price 2,924 is far below prior distribution zones (3,400–3,900), confirming a bearish higher-timeframe regime but a short-term rebound environment.
• Recent pivot evolution (daily closes): 11/20: 2,832 → 11/21: 2,766 (LL) → 11/22–23: 2,768/2,802 (base) → 11/24: 2,953 (impulsive up day). Price is attempting a short-term trend reversal via a higher low above the 11/21 sweep.

2. Key support/resistance mapping (confluence driven)

• Supports:
  • 2,850–2,865: intraday defended area; 11/25 low 2,858; 38.2% retrace zone of 2,626→2,983 leg (calc below).
  • 2,800–2,805: 50% retrace of the same leg; prior micro shelf.
  • 2,765–2,770: recent close base (11/21–22), near prior capitulation shelf.
• Resistances:
  • 2,950–2,960: intraday supply; repeated hourly rejections; proximity to VWAP/POC.
  • 2,980–3,000: psychological round + 11/24 high 2,983; neckline of a potential inverse H&S/falling-wedge breakout.
  • 3,100–3,120: prior daily pivot (11/18 close 3,123) and congestion.
  • 3,160–3,200: 20-day mean reversion area (see SMA20 estimate below) + prior breakdown shelf.

3. Momentum and mean reversion indicators (daily)

• 20-day SMA: Estimated ~3,172 from the last 20 closes; price (2,924) trades below the mid-band, typical of bear regime yet with mean-reversion pull potential toward 3,100–3,200 if the bounce persists.
• RSI(14): Approx ~30 (calc from 11/11–11/24 changes; gains ~349, losses ~811 → RS ~0.43 → RSI ~30). Borderline oversold and curling up, favoring a relief bounce rather than fresh breakdown in the next 24h absent new catalysts.
• MACD: Likely negative but histogram improving after three up-days into 11/24; suggests bearish momentum is waning and a short-term bullish cross on lower timeframes is feeding into daily.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price recently probed the lower band (11/21) and reverted toward the mid-band; trading below the middle still, with room to tag 3,100–3,200 if momentum continues.
• ATR (daily): Elevated from recent volatility; practical implication: 24h swings of ~4–6% are plausible, mapping to ~±120–180 around spot.

4. Ichimoku (daily, heuristic)

• Price below Cloud (bearish HTF), but Tenkan (9-period mid) ≈ (HH_9 + LL_9)/2 ≈ (3,245 + 2,627)/2 ≈ 2,936. Spot (2,924) sits just under Tenkan. A sustained reclaim above ~2,935–2,940 often leads to an attempt at Kijun (higher, ~3,1xx–3,2xx by eye), aligning with the mean-reversion thesis.

5. Fibonacci scaffolding

• Swing used: 11/21 low 2,626 → 11/24 high 2,983 (Δ = 357).
  • 23.6%: 2,983 − 0.236×357 ≈ 2,898.
  • 38.2%: ≈ 2,847.
  • 50%: ≈ 2,805.
  • 61.8%: ≈ 2,763.
• Today’s low ~2,858 respected the 38.2% zone, a constructive shallow retracement consistent with bullish continuation to retest 2,980–3,000.
• Extensions: 1.272 ≈ 3,079; 1.618 ≈ 3,189. These align with daily mean-reversion and prior pivots.

6. Hourly microstructure and VWAP/Bands

• Structure: After the 08:00 UTC selloff to 2,872 and a later dip to 2,858 at 14:00, price printed a higher high 2,949 (17:00) and then 2,956 (18:00), followed by higher lows ~2,891–2,923. Post-18:00 pullback held above 2,903–2,913 repeatedly, indicating buyers absorbing dips.
• VWAP (session heuristic): Weighted activity concentrated near 2,930–2,940 on heavy 20:00–21:00 volumes; price hovering just below/in that band. Reclaims above 2,940 tend to run stops into 2,950–2,960, opening 2,980–3,000.
• Hourly Bollinger: Compression around the mid-band near 2,925–2,935; post-compression expansion bias is mildly up given higher highs post-14:00.

7. Pattern recognition

• Falling wedge (daily) from early Nov appears to have broken topside on 11/24. Today’s dip looks like a throwback/retest into 38.2–50% fib. Wedge break targets typically include the origin of the last impulsive drop and the 20-day mean (~3,150+).
• Inverse H&S (developing on 4H/1H): Head at ~2,627, left shoulder ~2,766, right shoulder carving above ~2,800–2,860; neckline ~2,980. A clean hourly/daily close over 2,980 sets a measured move toward ~3,150–3,200.
• Wyckoff lens: 11/21 looks like a Spring/terminal shakeout; 11/24 as SOS; today acting as BU/LPS retest. That typically precedes markup attempts.

8. Volume and liquidity cues

• Heavy prints around 2,930–2,940 and 2,950–2,960 suggest supply but also absorption. Sweeps below 2,900 repeatedly found bids. Liquidity likely stacked above 2,956/2,983 (buy-side stops, momentum triggers) and below 2,858/2,850 (sell-side stops). Expect stop-driven volatility if either side breaks.

9. Risk factors and invalidation

• Invalidation for the immediate bull setup sits below 2,850 (loss of 38.2%) and especially below 2,805 (50% fib) which would invite 2,763/2,770 retest. As long as 2,850–2,865 holds on closing basis (hourly/4H), upside tests remain favored.

10. Next 24h price path projection

• Base case (≈60%): Initial fade to 2,905–2,915 or a brief liquidity dip toward 2,890–2,900, then reclaim 2,935–2,945 → press 2,950–2,960 → momentum run at 2,980–3,000. If neckline breaks (2,983–3,000), extension toward 3,050–3,080 with a late-session pullback to ~3,000.
• Bear/alt (≈40%): Failure to hold 2,900–2,905 → 2,858 retest. A decisive hourly close below 2,850 opens 2,805, possibly a fast flush toward 2,770 before buyers step in again.
• Expected range: 2,875–3,020 with upside skew; tail risk to 2,805 on failed hold.

11. Tool-by-tool takeaway

• Moving averages (SMA20/50): Price below 20/50 confirms HTF bear; but distance to SMA20 supports a mean-reversion bounce target ~3,150.
• RSI/Stoch: RSI near 30 supports bounce potential; stoch (implied) likely crossing up from oversold on 1H/4H.
• MACD: Negative but improving; short-term bullish momentum on lower TFs feeding into daily.
• Bollinger Bands: Post-lower-band tag, reversion toward the mid-band likely; hourly band squeeze hints at impending move, bias up due to HH/HL.
• Ichimoku: Tenkan reclaim near 2,936 is a tactical trigger; Kijun/Cloud remain overhead but reachable if neckline breaks.
• Fibonacci: Shallow 38.2% retrace held; targets 1.272/1.618 extensions at 3,079/3,189 if 2,983 clears.
• Market structure (HH/HL): Intraday bullish shift since 14:00 UTC; supports buy-the-dip strategy.
• Wyckoff: Spring → SOS → BU/LPS sequence suggests accumulation and pending markup.
• Liquidity/Order flow: Stop zones identified above 2,956/2,983 and below 2,858/2,850; expect acceleration upon breach.
• Risk management: Define invalidation under 2,850 (aggressive) / 2,805 (conservative) for long bias.

Conclusion and trading plan

• Bias: Buy-the-dip continuation play into 2,980–3,000 over the next 24 hours. Optimal entry is on a shallow pullback into prior support (2,905–2,915) or a liquidity sweep toward 2,890–2,900; we’ll set a limit slightly above the deeper liquidity pocket to increase fill probability while controlling risk.
• Open (limit): 2,910.
• Take profit (base): 3,005 (first major magnet at round number + just above the 11/24 high/neckline), with potential to trail if 3,000 breaks and momentum expands toward 3,050–3,080.
• Not a guarantee; if 2,850 breaks on an hourly close, the setup is compromised and caution/hedge advised.