ETH coils below 3.1k: bull-flag set-up for a tactical pop

ETH multi-timeframe read (daily to hourly) and 24h trading plan

1. Market context and structure

• Higher-timeframe trend (3 months): Strong markdown from early Sep highs ($4.7k) to a capitulation low on Nov 21 ($2,766). Lower highs/lows dominate the medium-term, so the primary trend remains down.
• Short-term trend (last 7–10 sessions): A constructive rebound from $2,766 to the current $3,036 with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Since Nov 24, highs progressed ~2,983 → 3,044 → 3,071 → 3,092; pullbacks have been shallow and bought.
• Intraday (last 24h): Today printed a push to $3,092.5 around 14:00 UTC, then a controlled pullback to $3,027 and a tight range into the close, stabilizing ~3,036. This is classic bull-flag consolidation after a morning impulse.

2. Key levels (confluence of S/R, pivots, Fibonacci)

• Immediate resistance: 3,058–3,063 (R1 and intraday supply), 3,072–3,089 (lower-high shelf), 3,092–3,095 (session high and near 20-D SMA), 3,118–3,125 (prior daily pivot cluster).
• Immediate support: 3,027 (hourly swing low), 3,010–3,015 (hourly congestion), 2,995–3,000 (psych, 38.2% retrace of today’s pop), 2,952–2,958 (Nov 24 close/high flip).
• Classical daily pivot set from 11/27 (H=3070.7, L=2987.2, C=3014.5): P≈3024.2; R1≈3061.1; R2≈3107.7; S1≈2977.6; S2≈2940.6. Today respected these well: price oscillated above P, tagged R1 zone, failed just shy of R2, then coiled slightly above P → mildly bullish into next session.
• Fibonacci (swing 11/21 low 2,766 to today’s 3,092 high): 23.6%≈3,014, 38.2%≈2,980, 50%≈2,929, 61.8%≈2,878. Price bounced from 3,027–3,036, sitting near the 23.6%/pivot confluence (3,014–3,024), consistent with a healthy flag.
• Larger Fibonacci (Oct 7 swing high ~4,755 to Nov 21 low 2,766): 23.6%≈3,235, 38.2%≈3,526, 50%≈3,760. The recovery hasn’t broken 23.6% yet, underscoring that the bigger-picture trend is still down; 3,235 is a medium-term magnet if this bounce strengthens beyond 3.1k.

3. Trend and moving averages

• 5D/10D momentum: 5D SMA ~2,998; 10D SMA ~2,980-ish. Price above both, indicating short-term uptrend continuation.
• 20D SMA: ~3,095 (approx from last 20 closes). Price just below it. A daily close >3,095 would signal strengthening momentum and open 3,120–3,165.
• 50D/200D: well above current price (mid 3ks to 4k), confirming the intermediate trend remains down; rallies face overhead supply on the way to 3,235/3,526.
• EMA stack on hours: Fast EMAs (8/21) are flat-to-up and nearly pinched; a small push above 3,058–3,063 likely re-expands the stack bullishly.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Estimated mid-50s after climbing from sub-30 on 11/20. That’s neutral-bullish, with room to push toward 60 without overbought conditions.
• Hourly RSI(14): Ranged 45–60 through the afternoon; mild bull divergence vs the 16:00 dip (price retested lows while RSI held higher). Supports chop-then-lift scenario.
• Stochastics (H1): Reset during the flag while price held above 3,027, constructive for another try higher.
• MACD (Daily): Histogram has been improving since 11/24; signal line cross up is near or underway. On H1, the histogram compressed during the coil; a fresh positive turn on a 3,060+ break would confirm momentum.

5. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR(14) estimate: contracting into ~150–220 after a prior spike. Current day range ~96 (2,996–3,092) fits a calming regime, which is favorable for continuation patterns to resolve directionally.
• Bollinger Bands (Daily, 20,2): Mid-band ≈ 3,095; lower ≈ 2,795; upper ≈ 3,395 (approx). Price is below the mid-band, but pressing upward; a reclaim of the mid-band often adds follow-through toward the upper band over several sessions.
• Keltner Channel (Daily, 20,1.5ATR): Price mid-channel; BB width likely below KC width intraday → light squeeze; range compression supports an imminent expansion.

6. Volume, VWAP, and flow

• Daily volumes: Elevated on the down-move into Nov 21, then moderating during the rebound. That’s typical of a bear market rally; however, the intraday upswings had stronger prints (08:00–10:00, 13:00–15:00 UTC), while pullback volumes were lighter → bullish skew in the last 24h microstructure.
• Intraday VWAP (session): Estimated ~3,050. Price is marginally below into the close (~3,036). A quick reclaim of VWAP in early hours would often precede an R1 retest (3,061) and possibly the prior high (3,092).
• OBV proxy (qualitative): Up-legs showed more participation than down-legs today; suggests accumulation on dips around 3,020–3,040.

7. Pattern recognition

• Bull flag on H1: Impulse from ~3,001 to 3,092 followed by a downward-sloping/sideways consolidation between ~3,027–3,060. A measured move targets 3,145–3,160 (flagpole ≈ 90 points added to breakout zone ≈ 3,055–3,065), with nearer-term resistance at 3,092/3,107.
• Candlesticks (Daily): Small real body with upper shadow but no decisive rejection (since price held mid-range and above pivots). Reads as indecision after advance, not a reversal candle.
• Elliott wave (micro): Plausible 5-wave intraday/short-swing count off 11/21 low: (1) 2,766→2,953; (2) pullback 2,889; (3) push 3,071; (4) pullback 3,027; (5) pending toward 3,110–3,160. Invalidation on a decisive break below wave (4) base (~3,027) that extends to ~2,995.
• Wyckoff lens: Nov 21 looks like a Selling Climax, with an Automatic Rally (to ~2,953), Secondary Test (~2,889), followed by Phase B building higher lows. Today’s action resembles a minor Sign of Strength on intraday, with a Last Point of Support near 3,027–3,036.

8. Ichimoku (directional bias, estimated)

• Daily: Price likely below or near the lower edge of the cloud with Kijun above spot. A close over ~3,095–3,130 would attack the cloud underside later. Tenkan is curling up; a Tenkan>Kijun cross on daily would require further upside days.
• Hourly: Price hovering around/just below the cloud top (≈3,055). A break and hold above 3,060–3,065 would flip the intraday tone more decisively bullish and invite a run toward 3,092 and 3,108–3,125.

9. Probabilistic path over next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Early dip-buying 3,028–3,038, reclaim of VWAP ~3,050, then a push to R1 3,061, testing 3,072–3,089. Break of 3,092 opens 3,105–3,112 (R2 vicinity) with potential extension 3,135–3,160 if momentum expands and weekend liquidity helps.
• Bearish alt (30%): Failure to reclaim VWAP; loss of 3,027 leads to 3,010, quick test of 2,995–3,000. Below 2,995, a slide to 2,980 (38.2% retrace of the swing) and possibly 2,952.
• Tail risk (15%): Sharp liquidity pocket run, either stop-squeeze above 3,120 toward 3,160 or downside air pocket to 2,940–2,930 if the 3,000 shelf gives way during thin hours.

10. Synthesis across tools

• Short-term momentum (RSI/MACD), structure (HH/HL), and pattern (hourly flag) favor another attempt higher, especially if ETH quickly reclaims/holds above VWAP and R1 (3,061). The 20D SMA at ~3,095 aligns with the prior intraday high (3,092–3,095) → strong near-term objective/decision point.
• Medium-term trend is still down; rallies face supply into 3,120–3,235. Thus, longs should be tactical; target the underside of those resistance zones rather than stretch targets.

11. Trade plan (24h tactical swing)

• Bias: Buy dips within the 3,028–3,038 zone or on strength through 3,063 if dip doesn’t materialize. For this output, we set a single optimal entry price near the dip: ~3,032.
• Target: 3,094 (below the 3,092–3,095 resistance cluster and just under R2 3,107) to improve fill probability while capturing the expected push.
• Invalidation context (not enforced by schema but operationally critical): A decisive hourly close below 3,010 would warn of a swing back to 2,995/2,980; under 2,980 the long idea degrades and should be reassessed.

12. Bottom line

• Expect a modest bullish continuation over the next 24 hours, with a path that likely includes a flush into 3,03x followed by a grind higher toward 3,09x–3,11x. Tactical long has a favorable skew if entered on a dip and exited under the first heavy resistance band.