ETH poised for an S1-to-pivot rotation: Buy the 2,989 dip toward 3,050

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish (buy-the-dip) while 2,987–2,975 support holds; upside magnet 3,041–3,086 with interim friction around 3,020–3,050.
• Path of least resistance: Early dip into S1 zone, then rebound toward pivot and possibly R1 if momentum upticks.
• Failure level: A decisive break and 4h close below ~2,987/2,975 opens 2,942–2,920 (S2/Fair Value) and invalidates the long for the next 24h.

1. Market structure and trend context

• Higher time frame: Still below the 50D/200D MAs (est. 50D ≈ high-3ks; 200D ≈ mid/high-3ks), confirming broader downtrend from Sep highs (~4.7k) through the November capitulation (~2.63k on 11/21).
• Intermediate swing: Since the 11/21 low (2,626.9), ETH carved a sequence of higher lows (2,767 → ~2,802 → ~2,953 → 2,988 zone) and stalled beneath 3,095 (11/28 high). That is classic early-stage recovery inside a larger downtrend.
• Short-term tape (last 5–7 sessions): Rally off 2,76x–2,80x into 3,03x–3,09x on contracting volume; today (11/29) a pullback to 2,994 (-) that is testing the prior support shelf around 2,987–2,995.
• Conclusion: Short-term uptrend within broader bearish context; today’s dip is a test of the breakout retest zone.

2. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: Likely mid-40s to high-40s (recovered from oversold ~11/21). Neutral-bullish; room both directions, but not overbought.
• Stochastic (full): Came off overbought; near a downward cross into mid-range—typical for shallow pullbacks within recovery phases.
• MACD daily: Histogram recently flipped positive on the bounce; now compressing. As long as price holds above the short EMA cluster (~2,98x–3,01x), risk of a full bear re-cross stays limited.
• ADX/DMI: Trend strength easing from November’s strong down leg; short-term up-leg not yet powerful, consistent with range-to-grind behavior.
• Read-through: Momentum favors mean-reversion bounces from support rather than trend-chasing until a clean 3,095+ breakout.

3. Moving averages and mean reversion

• 10/20 EMAs (approx.): Converging around 2,99x–3,05x. Current price is probing the fast-EMA band. Holding this band often leads to another test of recent highs.
• 20SMA (BB basis) estimate ~3,09x–3,10x: Price sits just below, acting as an upside magnet on bounces.
• Implication: Buy-the-dip into the EMA cluster tends to target the 20SMA/basis (3,04x–3,10x) on the next rotation.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) compressed from panic (~200–260) toward ~120–150 in recent sessions; last two ranges ~80–110. Expect 24h range ≈ 90–120.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price is in the lower-middle of the envelope; no squeeze yet. Room to travel to basis ~3,09x but near-term friction at 3,02x–3,05x.
• Donchian(20): High ~3,656 (11/10), low 2,627 (11/21). Current mid-channel positioning supports a mean-reversion tilt rather than trend explosion.

5. Support/resistance, Fibonacci, and levels that matter

• Key support cluster: 2,987 (daily pivot S1 for 11/29), 2,975 (round/structure), 2,953 (11/24 close), 2,942 (S2), then 2,920–2,900 (gap-ish demand/anchored VWAP zone).
• Overhead resistance: 3,020–3,050 (micro-shelf and prior intraday high 3,048.7), 3,041 (pivot), 3,086 (R1), 3,095 (11/28 high), then 3,120–3,168 (next swing supply).
• Fibonacci of 11/10 high (3,656) → 11/21 low (2,627):
  • 38.2% ≈ 3,020 (current headwind)
  • 50% ≈ 3,142
  • 61.8% ≈ 3,263 Price currently oscillates just below 38.2%, typical first resistance on a countertrend bounce.

6. Ichimoku framework (daily)

• Price: Below Kumo (bearish regime) but above Tenkan-sen (≈ 2,93x). Kijun (26) much higher (3.3k–3.4k), confirming broader resistance above.
• Tenkan support + structure at ~2,93x–2,99x suggests dip-buy area with tight invalidation.

7. Volume, breadth, and money flow

• Post-panic rally on diminishing volume → constructive but not conviction trend. OBV likely basing; CMF modestly negative to neutral.
• Read: Demand shows up on dips; chases are thin. Reinforces the strategy to enter near support rather than breakout chasing.

8. Pivot mapping (derived from 11/28 H/L/C = 3095.03/2995.77/3032.30)

• P ≈ 3,041.03
• R1 ≈ 3,086.29, R2 ≈ 3,140.29
• S1 ≈ 2,987.03, S2 ≈ 2,941.77
• Today’s price (2,994.65) is sitting near S1. Typical 24h behavior is a rotation from S1 toward P if S1 holds.

9. Scenario planning (24h)

• Base case (55%): Hold 2,987–2,975; rotate to 3,02x–3,05x (P/basis magnet), stretch to 3,08x if momentum improves. Range ≈ 2,980–3,080.
• Bull extension (25%): Quick reclaim of 3,041 leads to 3,086–3,095 test; with strong tape, wick to 3,12x. Range ≈ 2,990–3,120.
• Bear break (20%): Lose 2,987 decisively → 2,942 (S2) tag; weak bounce thereafter. Range ≈ 2,930–3,010.

10. Strategy synthesis and trade design

• Edge: Mean-reversion bounce off S1 with confluence from Tenkan support, anchored VWAP from 11/21, and 38.2% fib just overhead (first test often rejects, second test more likely to pass). Target the pivot/basis zone on a 24h horizon.
• Entry: Prefer a buy-limit slightly above S1 to get filled on a liquidity sweep: 2,989 ± a few dollars.
• Take-profit: First objective at 3,041–3,050 (pivot/overhead shelf). Given ATR and weekend liquidity, an ambitious but still probable tag is 3,050–3,060; R1 (3,086) is possible but not base expectation in 24h.
• Invalidation (stop conceptually): Below 2,942 (S2) or tighter under 2,970 depending on risk; a firm H4 close below 2,975 negates the setup and shifts bias to 2,94x.

11. Risk notes

• Weekend liquidity increases whipsaw probability near round numbers (3,000). Use limit entries; avoid chasing breakouts into 3,040–3,050 without momentum confirmation.
• If 3,020 rejects hard again, expect a brief retest of 2,987 before any sustained push.

Bottom line

• While the higher-timeframe trend is still bearish, the short-term structure and location against S1 favor a tactical long for a 24h rotation to the pivot/basis area. A tight invalidation below the S1 shelf keeps the skew attractive.