ETH at the 3K Pivot: Coiled for a Mean-Reversion Push Toward 3.09K

Executive summary and 24h bias

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish with range expansion likely after multi-day volatility compression. Expected range 2940–3090, with a tilt to test 3020/3070 supply.
• Primary driver: Post-capitulation mean reversion off 11/21 low, price coiling just under the 3k psychological pivot and the 20‑day basis line.
• Strategy: Stalk a buy-the-dip limit near 2960–2975 into demand, targeting a push toward 3070–3090. If 2950 fails on a closing basis, look for 2880–2920 quickly.

1. Price action and market structure

• Trend context (daily): From early September highs near 4.7–4.8k, ETH trended lower in a persistent series of lower highs/lows. October saw an acceleration of downside (10/10–10/21) with a large liquidation event. November extended the drawdown into a capitulation cluster 11/20–11/22 (lows 2627–2705), followed by a reflex bounce into 11/28 (high 3095), then a shallow pullback to 2995 on 11/29.
• Current structure: Higher low sequence after the 11/21 low: 2766 (11/21 close) → 2768 (11/22) → 2802 (11/23) → 2953 (11/24) → 2958 (11/25) → 3015–3032 (11/27–28) → 2995 (11/29). This is a constructive pullback within a short-term upswing.
• Key levels • Supports: 3000 (psychological pivot), 2970–2960 (intraday demand/dip zone), 2950 (control), 2920 (minor shelf), 2889, 2858, 2800, 2765–2705 (strong base), 2627 (capitulation extreme). • Resistances: 3020–3035 (recent closes/fib 38.2%), 3070–3095 (swing high supply), 3120–3145 (Kijun/50% fib), 3168, 3200–3235, 3290–3315.
• Pattern read: Descending channel from September likely broke into a reflexive bounce; current pullback resembles a bull flag above reclaimed supports (2950–2970). Weekend liquidity suggests wicks through 3k are probable.

2. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: ~41 (computed), recovering from oversold, consistent with a nascent mean-reversion upswing. Room exists to push toward 50–55 without overbought conditions.
• MACD daily: Below zero (bear regime) but histogram has been improving since the 11/21 low; minor pullback on 11/29 likely flattens the histogram without negating the turn. A continuation to 3070–3090 would likely print a higher histogram bar.
• Stochastic RSI (qualitative): Off lows and mid-range; supports further upside push before a momentum reset.

3. Moving averages

• SMA20: ~3065.5 (computed from last 20 closes). Price at 2995 is below the mid-band but within striking distance. Mean reversion suggests a test of the 20‑day around 3065 in the next session.
• SMA50/SMA100: Well above price, reflecting the broader downtrend. The slope remains negative; any bounce remains countertrend until 50‑day is reclaimed.
• Takeaway: Near-term reversion to the SMA20 is the clean path; broader MA stack remains bearish, capping rallies.

4. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Bollinger Bands(20): Basis ~3065. Bands expanded into the 11/21 capitulation then started to contract through 11/27–11/29. Current price sits between the lower band and the basis. With compression underway, a reversion to the basis is statistically favored; a breakout day could stretch price to the upper half of the envelope (3050–3100) without excessive sigma extension.
• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~200–220. A ±1 ATR day from 2995 implies 2790–3210 bounds; realistic realized range next 24h likely narrower (circa 150–180) given volume decay.

5. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing used: 11/10 high 3656 → 11/21 low 2627. • 38.2% = ~3020 (already tested/hovering beneath) • 50% = ~3141–3145 (aligns with Kijun and supply) • 61.8% = ~3263 (unlikely in 24h absent catalyst)
• Interpretation: Price is consolidating right below 38.2%, typical behavior after a reflex rally. Acceptance above 3020–3035 opens path to 3140. Failure under 2950 risks a deeper retest of 2880–2920.

6. Ichimoku (daily, approximate)

• Tenkan-sen (9): ~2861
• Kijun-sen (26): ~3142
• Price vs. lines: Above Tenkan, below Kijun; classic early recovery phase inside a broader bear cloud. The Kijun coincides with the 50% fib, forming a hard cap at ~3140 on first attempt.
• Cloud: Likely overhead and bearish-sloped; first resistance is the Kijun/flat areas near 3120–3145.

7. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Volume: Sharp surge into 11/20–11/21, then steady decay into 11/27–11/29. This is constructive for a coiled breakout; lower participation over the holiday/weekend can exaggerate wicks around the 3k pivot.
• OBV (qualitative read): Stabilizing since 11/21; no distributional divergence yet on the small pullback 11/29.

8. Market profile, liquidity, and order flow concepts

• High-volume node: 2950–3010 has acted as a sticky value area since 11/24. Expect back-and-fill here; responsive buyers likely defend 2960–2975 on first touch.
• Liquidity pools: Resting stops likely cluster below 2950 and 2920; topside liquidity around 3035 (recent local highs/closes) and 3090–3120 (swing high/rounds). A sweep below 2950 that reclaims 2970 would be a strong long trigger.

9. Pattern frameworks

• Wyckoff lens: 11/21 = selling climax (SC), 11/22–11/24 automatic rally (AR) toward 3k, 11/29 shallow ST back into support. That points to early Phase B; a push to 3070–3090 would fit a secondary test of resistance.
• Elliott wave lens (simplified): A: 2627 → 3095; B: 3095 → ~2995; C: targets 3120–3140 if B holds above 2950. For the next 24h, the initial leg of C can reasonably tag 3070–3090.

10. Confluence map for next 24h

• Bull case (≈60%): Hold 2960–2975 → reclaim/hold above 3k → test 3020–3035 → extension to 3070–3095. This aligns with mean reversion to SMA20 and BB basis.
• Base-range case (≈30%): Chop 2950–3035, closing near 3k with wicks both sides, awaiting weekday liquidity.
• Bear tail (≈10%): Loss of 2950 on momentum → 2920–2880 sweep before responsive buying. Requires a liquidity event or risk-off headline.

11. Risk management and execution plan

• Preferred entry: Limit buy 2960–2975 (where demand has been responsive and below the 3k magnet). If missed, momentum add-above 3035 with tight risk to ride a push into 3070–3090.
• Invalidation for the long idea: A daily close <2920 or impulsive rejection after reclaiming 3035 coupled with rising sell volume.
• Profit-taking: First scale near 3020–3035, main TP 3070–3090 (coincident with 20‑day basis and 11/28 supply). Stretch TP only on strong breadth to 3120–3145 (Kijun/50% fib), but that’s an upper-tail outcome for 24h.

Conclusion

• The confluence of post-capitulation structure, RSI recovery, proximity to the 20‑day mean, and volume contraction favors a modest upside resolution in the next 24h. The optimal risk-adjusted approach is to buy a controlled dip into 2960–2975 and target the 3070–3090 supply zone, while respecting 2920–2950 as the bull/bear toggles.