Fade the 61.8% Bounce: Short ETH Near 2,861 Into Pivot Resistance, Target 2,732

ETH snapshot and context

• Symbol: ETH/USD
• Current price: 2801.03
• Session character: Heavy selloff from the prior 2990–3050 consolidation with an intraday flush to 2725, followed by a reactive bounce toward 2810 into the close.
• Time horizons: I analyze daily and 1-hour data (provided), then fuse cross-timeframe signals.

Trend and market structure

• Higher time frame (Daily, Sep → Dec): A persistent sequence of lower highs and lower lows from the September highs (~4.7k) to November’s capitulation band (2.63–2.70k). The late-November rebound to ~3.10k failed and rolled over; the dominant trend remains down.
• Intermediate structure: From Nov 21 low (2626.9) to Nov 28 high (3095.0), ETH rallied ~18% but then stalled below 3.1k and faded back under 3k. Today’s failure from 2.99k and break to 2.73k confirms sellers still control lower-timeframe swings.
• Short-term (1H today): Sideways morning near 2.84k, sharp liquidation to 2.72–2.73k, then responsive buying back to ~2.80k. Profile resembles a b-shape (long-liquidation) day: often leads to a near-term bounce but is typically bearish continuation in the bigger trend.

Key levels (derived from recent highs/lows, pivots, and Fibonacci)

• Intraday low support: 2724–2727 (today’s low). Below it: 2704 (Nov 22 low) and 2627 (Nov 21 swing low).
• Immediate resistance: 2839 (tomorrow’s daily pivot), 2861 (50% retrace of 2627→3095), 2916 (38.2% retrace). Stronger supply: 2990–3050 and 3095.
• Psychological: 2800 (currently straddled) and 3000 (major supply).

Fibonacci mapping (Nov 21 low 2627 → Nov 28 high 3095, range = 468)

• 38.2%: 2916
• 50.0%: 2861
• 61.8%: 2806 (today’s close ~2801 is slightly below; we’re oscillating around this golden-ratio zone)
• 78.6%: 2727 (today’s low ~2725 effectively tagged it) Interpretation: Price tagged 78.6% intraday and closed near 61.8%. This often enables a countertrend bounce toward 50% (2861) or 38.2% (2916) before sellers reassert.

Daily pivots for next session (calculated from today: H=2991.95, L=2725.17, C=2801.03)

• Pivot (P): 2839.38
• R1: 2953.60
• S1: 2686.82
• R2: 3106.16
• S2: 2572.60 Interpretation: Sub-pivot opens the door to S1 (2687) if the bounce fails. First overhead roadblock is P ~2839, then the 50% fib cluster ~2861.

Moving averages (approximations from provided series)

• 20D SMA ~3006: Price is ~6.8% below. Bearish.
• 50D SMA: Likely well above current (mid-to-high 3k) given October–early Nov levels. Bearish slope.
• 200D SMA: Much higher (upper 3k/low 4k). Bearish regime. Interpretation: The MA stack and slopes confirm a bearish higher-timeframe trend; rallies are sellable until clear reclaim of the 20D/50D and structure shift.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (est.): High-30s to low-40s after the pullback from ~3.1k. That’s weak but not deeply oversold; room exists on both sides.
• 1H RSI: Oversold during the 16:00–17:00 UTC flush; recovered toward neutral (~45–50) into the close. That favors a near-term bounce toward resistance before momentum fades again.
• Stochastics (1H): Likely rising from oversold; should enter resistance between 60–80 on a push into 2860–2890, a common fade zone in downtrends.

MACD

• Daily: Below zero with a negative histogram (downtrend intact). No confirmed bullish cross.
• 1H: Bullish crossover post-liquidation; histogram expanding, supporting a bounce into the 2839–2861 resistance band.

Bollinger Bands

• Daily: Price is below the 20D mid-band (~3006). Not pinned to the lower band, so not an extreme stretch; room to revert but the band center caps rallies.
• 1H: The drop rode the lower band; subsequent mean reversion pushed price back toward the mid-band/upper band. Expect upper-band touches around 2850–2870 to attract supply in a downtrend.

Ichimoku (qualitative read)

• Daily: Price below cloud; Tenkan and Kijun overhead (likely 3.0–3.2k region). Bearish bias.
• 1H: Price rebounding toward/into the cloud base; first contact usually offers resistance in bear phases. A rejection near 2850–2865 aligns with fib/pivot confluence.

Volume and market profile

• Daily volume today elevated relative to the prior weekend, consistent with a distribution/long-liquidation day.
• 1H volume spiked into 19:00–21:00 UTC on the rebound, suggesting responsive buyers absorbed the panic. However, heavy turnover near 2.75–2.80k can also form a supply shelf on subsequent retests higher.
• Profile: b-shape (long-liquidation) structure typically produces a bounce into value, then a continuation lower unless value migrates higher decisively.

VWAP and intraday mean-reversion

• Approx intraday VWAP (12/01) clusters around 2765–2780 given high-volume rebounds late session. Current price ~2801 is slightly above this, implying there’s room to squeeze toward the daily pivot (2839) and 50% fib (2861) before supply re-engages.

Volatility and ranges

• Recent true ranges frequently 100–270 points; 14D ATR estimated ~170–200. A 24h move of 150–200 points is plausible.
• Expected 24h envelope from 2800: roughly 2650–2950 (wide), but base case skew is capped bounce into mid-2.8s then fade.

Candlestick/price action signals

• Daily: Shaven head open (open=high) with a lower tail; not a bullish reversal pattern. Bears in control intraday; late-day dip-buying limited the damage.
• 1H: Sequence shows capitulation wick then constructive but corrective rebound, typical of a bear-flag or corrective rally phase.

Confluence summary

• Bearish higher-timeframe structure (MAs, daily MACD, under-20D SMA) argues to sell rallies.
• Short-term (1H) momentum (RSI/MACD) and VWAP posture favor a relief bounce first.
• Strong confluence for resistance: 2839 (pivot) + 2861 (50% fib) + 1H upper Bollinger/Ichimoku base + prior intraday supply. This is an attractive area to fade.
• Downside magnets on rejection: 2765–2780 (VWAP zone), 2727–2725 (78.6% fib/intraday low), with risk of an extension toward S1 2687 if liquidity sweeps recur.

24-hour price path projection

• Primary scenario (55%): Squeeze to 2855–2875, stall below 2916, then roll over toward 2765–2735 by end of window.
• Secondary scenario (30%): Immediate rejection below/near 2839 pivot and grind lower to re-test 2725; a marginal undercut to 2700–2687 possible on momentum.
• Less likely (15%): Stronger squeeze reclaims 2916 (38.2% fib) and pushes toward 2950–2955 (R1 vicinity); would require persistent bid and broader crypto risk-on—still a sell area within the prevailing downtrend.

Trade rationale: Short into resistance

• Edge components: Bearish daily trend, failed 3k breakout, sub-20D SMA regime; confluence resistance at 2839–2861; 1H bounce likely provides better entry; ample ATR to reach 2730s within 24h.
• Invalidations: A decisive reclaim and hold above 2916 (38.2% fib) would weaken the short thesis; above ~2955 (R1) materially challenges it.

Execution plan (price levels)

• Entry (Sell/Short): 2861 (50% fib, centered inside the 2839–2861 resistance band). A limit order there aims to fade the relief rally.
• Take profit (Close): 2732, just above the 2727/2725 support cluster to capture the move without demanding a perfect re-test.
• Note: While not requested, a prudent stop for risk control would sit above 2918–2925 (above the 38.2% fib and local supply), preserving a favorable R:R.

Bottom line

• Direction next 24h: Rally into resistance first, then fade. The path of least resistance remains down until ETH reclaims and holds above the 20D SMA and the 2.9–3.0k supply. Best tactical edge is to sell a bounce into the 2855–2865 zone and look for a move back into the 2730s.