ETH’s W-Bottom Breakout: Eyeing 3,260 as Bulls Reclaim the 3.14k Pivot

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for ETH/USD (last: 3,158.51)

Timeframes used

• Daily: Sep 5 – Dec 3 (primary trend and key levels)
• 4H/1H (proxy from provided hourly series on Dec 3): intraday structure, momentum, and entry timing

Market structure and price action

• Larger context: After topping near 4,763 (Sep 13), ETH entered a sustained downtrend with volatility spikes (notably Oct 10 and early Nov). Capitulation-like behavior into Nov 20–21 produced a major swing low (~2,626 intraday), followed by basing and a constructive higher-low at 2,720 on Dec 1.
• Short-term trend: Since Dec 1, price has rallied from 2,800 → 2,998 (Dec 2 close) → 3,158 (current), printing higher highs and higher lows on intraday bars. This is a classic early uptrend transition.
• Breakout: Today’s advance cleared successive swing highs at 3,032–3,095 and 3,123, confirming a W-bottom breakout above the prior 3,000–3,050 consolidation.

Key supports and resistances (daily)

• Immediate supports: 3,095 (11/28 high / now-turned support), 3,060–3,070 (intraday pivot band), 2,998 (12/2 close), 2,952–2,957 (11/24–25 closes)
• Immediate resistances: 3,175–3,186 (today’s intraday high and R2 pivot cluster), 3,218 (11/17 swing high), 3,260–3,265 (Fib 61.8% retrace of 11/10→11/21 downswing), 3,292 (11/4 close), 3,435–3,480 (Nov 7–8 zone)

Classical pivots (derived from 12/2 daily H/L/C = 3032.76/2784.39/2997.94)

• P = 2,938.36
• R1 = 3,092.33 (cleared and holding as support)
• R2 = 3,186.73 (next immediate upside test; intraday high ~3,174)
• R3 = 3,340.70 (stretch target, unlikely within next 24h without a fresh catalyst)

Fibonacci analysis

• 11/10 high 3,656 → 11/21 low 2,627 retracement levels:
  • 38.2% = ~3,019 (already reclaimed)
  • 50% = ~3,141 (we’re testing/holding just above)
  • 61.8% = ~3,262 (key magnet; aligns with measured W-bottom target)
• Measured move from W-bottom: 3,030 neckline over 2,800 base ≈ 230; breakout target ≈ 3,260, confluence with 61.8%.

Moving averages (approximate daily)

• 20D SMA ≈ 3,000: price has reclaimed and is riding above; Bollinger basis support.
• 50D SMA likely > 3,300 (still above price), implying broader downtrend not fully reversed yet; expect resistance in 3,260–3,350.
• Fast EMAs (5–10D) have likely crossed above 20D, signaling short-term momentum turn.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: transitioning from neutral to bullish (~58–62 estimated after today’s gain). Not overbought; room to run toward mid-60s.
• MACD (12,26,9) daily: histogram turning positive; MACD line curling up toward signal → early bullish crossover conditions.
• Stochastics: On hourly, likely overbought (>80), consistent with a momentum push; favors buying pullbacks rather than chasing at intraday highs.

Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily

• Basis ~3,000; upper band estimated ~3,300. Price advancing along the upper half of the envelope without band-closing extremes. Momentum continuation to the upper band (3,28–3,32k) is plausible.

Ichimoku

• Daily: Price above Tenkan, approaching/near Kijun estimated around 3,250–3,300. First bullish objective is a Kijun test; cloud likely still above price, so 3,30–3,45k remains heavier resistance.
• 4H/1H: Bullish TK cross and price above cloud (implied by intraday structure). Chikou clearing recent price—supportive of continuation after shallow dips.

ATR/volatility and expected range

• Daily ATR(14) estimated 170–220. From 3,158, a typical 24h envelope suggests 3,000–3,330 as a 1x ATR band. A push to 3,260 (upper-Fib) falls within 1 ATR.

Volume/OBV

• Capitulation volumes mid/late Nov followed by recovery on constructive, not euphoric, buy volume. Today’s intraday climb held gains with modest pullbacks—OBV trend likely ticking up, confirming accumulation.

Heikin Ashi/candlesticks

• Dec 2 printed a strong bullish candle near highs (rising window into today). Today’s session shows small upper wicks on hours near 3,170s—healthy but indicating first resistance test near R2.

Elliott Wave framing (tactical)

• Off the Dec 1 low (2,720): Wave 1 to ~3,000, Wave 2 shallow/counter, Wave 3 extension toward 3,170s, now a probable Wave 4 pullback (to ~3,140–3,150), then Wave 5 objective 3,218–3,265. This dovetails with Fib and pivot confluence.

Regression channel (Nov 21 → present)

• Price currently tracking near the upper half of an ascending channel. Mean-reversion pullback into 3,130–3,150 before another leg higher would be typical within this slope.

Market profile/VWAP (intraday)

• Session acceptance built around 3,060–3,100 earlier; new acceptance migrating upward into 3,120–3,150. Price holds above session VWAP—momentum intact unless price knifes back below ~3,115–3,125.

Confluence map (why 3,140–3,150 matters)

• 50% Fib of 11/10→11/21 downswing ≈ 3,141
• Intraday pullback zone and hourly demand re-tests
• Just above daily pivot R1 flip ~3,092, maintaining bullish structure

Scenarios for next 24 hours

• Base case (60%): Shallow pullback to 3,140–3,150, then continuation toward 3,218 (swing high) with extensions into 3,260 (Fib 61.8%).
• Bull case (25%): Momentum breaks R2 (3,187) without a deep pullback, quick run to 3,218 and squeeze into 3,290.
• Bear case (15%): Failure to hold 3,120–3,140 intraday, slide toward 3,095 and 3,060. Loss of 3,060 would defer upside and re-open 2,998–3,015 retest.

Risk management considerations

• Best R:R appears on a buy-the-dip into 3,140–3,150 with a protective stop below 3,092 (pivot R1 flip) or conservative below 3,060 (hourly demand). Targets 3,218 first, 3,260 second. R:R ~1.5–2.0 depending on stop.
• Avoid chasing above 3,175 unless using a breakout trigger >3,187 (R2) with tighter risk.

Synthesis and bias

• Multiple independent tools align: W-bottom breakout target (3,260), 50%→61.8% Fib path (3,141→3,262), pivot stack (R1 held; R2 near-term), improving momentum (RSI/MACD), and higher-low structure. Overhead 3,260–3,300 is likely the near-term magnet/resistance cluster.
• Net: Bullish for the next 24 hours with preference to enter on a controlled pullback to the 3,140–3,150 zone.

Actionable plan

• Primary: Buy-the-dip limit around 3,145 (±5). Tactical target 3,260 within 24h, aligning with Fib 61.8% and measured W-breakout. If not filled and price accelerates, a secondary momentum plan would be a breakout buy >3,188 with a slightly higher target (3,290), but the limit dip entry offers superior R:R.