ETH: Pivot Reclaim Setup — 38.2% Fib Holds, Targeting a Push to 3275 in the Next 24 Hours

ETH multi-timeframe technical scan and 24h trading plan (step-by-step)

1. Market structure and context

• Higher time frame (Daily): After a prolonged downtrend from mid-September highs (~4760) into the November capitulation trough (Nov 21 intraday low ~2627), ETH has transitioned into a reactive rebound. The last two weeks produced a sequence of higher lows and a breakout day on Dec 3 (close ~3192) followed by a controlled pullback on Dec 4. Price is currently 3147, above the 20-day moving average but well below the 50/200-day MAs, signaling a countertrend rally within a larger bearish regime.
• Intermediate (4H/1H): From the Dec 1 low (~2720), ETH impulsed to 3236, then retraced to 3073 today, and is stabilizing near 3140–3150. The intraday structure features higher highs and higher lows since Dec 1 on 4H, with a clean liquidity sweep to 3073 today and subsequent absorption.
• Regime take: Short-term bullish momentum within a still-bearish higher-timeframe trend; near-term continuation likely if 3035–3050 zone holds.

2. Key horizontal levels (derived from recent extremes and volume behavior)

• Resistance: 3210–3236 (intraday swing high and hourly neckline), 3270–3280 (R1 pivot and prior supply), 3350–3355 (daily R2 / measured move), 3400 (round number and prior breakdown shelf), 3480–3520 (late Oct shelf).
• Support: 3130–3145 (today’s pivot area), 3090–3105 (hourly demand), 3060–3075 (today’s sweep low cluster), 3035–3050 (38.2% retrace + daily S1 from yesterday), 2990–3005 (psychological and multi-Fib confluence), 2950–2978 (50% retrace of the Dec impulse), 2915–2920 (61.8% retrace).

3. Pivot points (Classic, computed from Dec 3 H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ 3130.8; S1 ≈ 3049.0; R1 ≈ 3273.4; S2 ≈ 2906.3; R2 ≈ 3355.2.
• Today’s session traded around P, respected a bounce above S1 (intraday low 3073 > S1 3049), and failed to reach R1 yet. This favors mean-reversion long from P/S1 toward R1 in the next 24h if support holds.

4. Fibonacci context

• Swing A: Nov 21 low 2626.9 → Dec 4 high 3236.2; 38.2% = ~3003; 50% = ~2931; 61.8% = ~2860. ETH remains comfortably above 38.2% => bullish continuation bias for the bounce regime.
• Swing B (tactical): Dec 1 low 2720.4 → Dec 4 high 3236.2; 38.2% = ~3039; 50% = ~2978; 61.8% = ~2917. Today’s pullback bottomed at 3073, staying above the 38.2% level, a classic wave-4 style shallow retracement that often precedes one more leg up.

5. Moving averages

• Daily 20SMA (approx) ~3000–3020: Price above it, signaling short-term momentum positive.
• Daily 50SMA well higher (~3600–3900 est) and 200SMA even higher: Long-term trend still down; overhead supply pockets remain.
• 1H EMAs: Price dipped below intraday 20/50 EMAs during the sell-off to 3073, then reclaimed the mid-3100s. Reclaiming and holding the 1H 20/50 EMA band (approx 3165–3185) would strengthen the case for a push to 3210–3230.

6. RSI (momentum)

• Daily RSI estimated near 50–55, up from oversold in mid-November, showing improving momentum but not overbought. This supports more upside before daily exhaustion.
• 1H RSI likely produced a bullish divergence: price made a lower low at 3073 vs 3146 earlier while momentum loss was less pronounced. Divergences after a liquidity sweep often precede rebounds toward VWAP/EMAs and the prior high.

7. MACD

• Daily MACD has recently curled higher with histogram trending positive/less negative since late November, consistent with an early-cycle momentum turn. A signal-line cross-up either occurred or is imminent.
• 1H MACD shows a negative to neutral transition post-dip; a bullish cross on 1H as price pushes back through ~3170–3185 would confirm the thrust toward 3210–3230.

8. Bollinger Bands

• Daily BB: Price is above the middle band (20SMA), riding the band post-breakout, then mean-reverting closer to the middle band during today’s pullback. Band width remains elevated after November’s volatility but has begun to normalize; this environment supports trend-follow-with-pullback entries.
• 1H BB: Post sell-off expansion, price re-entered bands and is stabilizing near the mid-band. A push back to the upper band aligns with a move toward 3210–3230.

9. ATR/Volatility

• Recent daily ranges: 224–276 pts; ATR(14) estimated ~200–230. From 3147, a 1×ATR move projects 2920–3360 over 24h. A conservative target in the 3270s lies well within expected volatility.

10. VWAP and intraday mean reversion

• Today’s VWAP is likely around the high 3160s to low 3180s. Price is marginally below VWAP into the close; a reclaim tends to attract systematic mean-reversion and trend-following flows. Expect responsive sellers near 3210–3230 and again near 3270–3280.

11. Volume and order flow read

• Selling pressure and volume spiked during the 18:00–21:00 UTC drive lower to 3073, but the candle closed well off lows (absorption). Subsequent hours held 3120–3145 with constructive stabilization. That pattern often signals local capitulation and sets a platform for the next leg up.

12. Ichimoku (directional filter)

• Daily: Price is below the cloud but has crossed above Tenkan and near/above Kijun, indicative of a rebound within a bear regime. Bullish if Tenkan > Kijun and price remains above both; however, the cloud overhead (likely mid-3300s+) represents resistance.
• 1H/4H: Price oscillating near/inside cloud; a clean push and hold above the cloud base around 3180–3195 would be a strong intraday continuation signal.

13. Donchian/Breakout channels

• 20-session Donchian high recently expanded to 3236; a breakout above 3236 would target the 3300–3355 band. Current trade idea does not require a breakout; it anchors on pullback-to-support continuation.

14. Regression channels

• 1H linear regression from Dec 1 shows an upward sloping channel; the dip to 3073 tagged the lower bound. Current price near midline suggests a probabilistic drift toward the upper bound (3210–3230) next.

15. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 2720 → 3050/3100; Wave 2: pullback into 2990s; Wave 3: 2990 → 3236; Wave 4: intraday to 3073 (shallow, above 38.2%); Wave 5 projection: 1.0–1.272 extension points toward 3270–3330 before a larger corrective phase. This aligns with R1 and R2 pivots.

16. Pattern recognition

• Possible intraday inverse head-and-shoulders: Left shoulder near 3145 (14:00), head at 3073 (19:00), right shoulder 3120–3135 (21:00); neckline ~3210–3215. A break and hold above 3215 projects a measured move of ~+135 points → 3345–3350 (in line with R2). Even without neckline breakout, the pattern argues for a return test of 3205–3215.

17. Liquidity and sweep dynamics

• The flush to 3073 took out prior intraday stops beneath 3136–3140 and found aggressive buyers. Typical path after such a sweep is a retrace into the breakdown zone (3180–3205) and, if accepted, a continuation to take out the session highs (~3230+).

18. Seasonality/flow considerations

• Not relying on macro or external catalysts here; the setup is purely technical. However, post-capitulation bounces commonly persist for several sessions before encountering higher-timeframe supply.

19. Confluence synthesis for the next 24 hours Bullish factors:

• Held above 38.2% Fib (Dec swing) and above daily 20SMA.
• Intraday bullish divergence and absorption at 3073.
• Classic pivot reaction: bounce above S1; trading near P with upside toward R1.
• Potential inverse H&S and breakout toward 3215/3236, with measured move to 3345.
• Short-term channel support respected; MACD/RSI support continuation. Bearish/risks:
• Larger trend still down; heavy supply overhead around 3270–3350.
• Failure to reclaim 3180–3195 quickly could invite a retest of 3090–3075 and, if broken, 3040–3050 and 2990–3005.

Base path (most likely, 60%):

• Reclaim VWAP/EMAs 3165–3185, push to 3205–3230, probe 3270–3280 (R1 area). Consolidate between 3210–3275 into the next session. Alternate path (25%):
• Early dip toward 3125–3130 or even 3095–3075, buyers defend, then late-session push to 3200–3220. Low-probability tail (15%):
• Clean breakout above 3236/3215 neckline acceptance, accelerated move to 3330–3355 (R2) before mean reversion.

20. Risk management framing (for context)

• Invalidation for the long thesis sits below 3035–3050 (Fib 38.2% and S1 cluster). A tactical stop would generally live under 3020–3030. Expected reward from 3130–3140 to 3270–3280 is ~130–150 pts, comparable to downside of ~100–120 pts, yielding a favorable but not extreme R:R that improves if entry is closer to 3130.

Conclusion and 24h prediction

• Probability-weighted expectation favors a grind higher back into 3205–3230 with an extension attempt into 3270–3280. Given confluence of Fib holds, pivot structure, intraday absorption, and early trend reversal signals, the tactical bias is Buy on a controlled pullback into 3130–3140 or on strength through 3185 with momentum confirmation. Profit-taking is optimal near 3275 where R1 and supply converge.

Trade plan

• Position: Long (Buy).
• Optimal entry: 3132 (limit buy near pivot P and just above the 3120–3130 micro-demand). Alternative momentum entry (not used for the single-number requirement): on a 1H close above 3188–3195.
• Take profit (24h): 3275 (R1 confluence and measured move waypoint).
• Protective stop (context only): 3020–3030 area beneath the 38.2% retrace, to avoid deeper pullback risk toward 2990.

This plan aligns with the 24h volatility envelope and balances confirmation with value entry. Expect choppy path dependency early, then directional follow-through toward 3210–3230 and a test of 3275 if buyers reclaim VWAP/EMAs.