ETH ignites above 3.3k: double‑bottom breakout sets sights on 3.45k in the next 24h

Executive summary

• Bias next 24 hours: Bullish continuation with buy-the-dip preference.
• Forecast range: 3250–3460 with a tilt toward testing 3435–3460.
• Plan: Enter on a shallow pullback near 3290–3300, target 3435–3455.

1. Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe) Daily trend

• From mid‑Sep high ~4760, ETH trended down into a capitulation low on Nov 21 (~2627), followed by a basing phase through late Nov.
• Structure since Nov 21: higher low on Dec 1 (~2800), higher high on Dec 3 (~3192), pullback to ~3024–3061 (Dec 5–7), and a new higher high today on the spike to ~3396. That is a textbook bullish transition from downtrend to early uptrend (HH/HL sequence).
• Double bottom: Nov 21 (~2627) and Dec 1 (~2800) form a W with a neckline in the 3025–3050 zone. Breakout above the neckline on Dec 3, successful backtest Dec 5–7, and an upside continuation today. This confirms the reversal pattern.

Hourly trend

• Range compression around 3090–3140 during Asia/London, impulsive breakout at 15:00–17:00 UTC to 3396 with heavy volume, followed by an orderly retrace to 3288–3330 and stabilization around 3300–3310. This is classic breakout–flag behavior rather than a blow‑off reversal.

Wyckoff lens

• Accumulation from Nov 21 to Dec 8: spring at ~2800 (Dec 1), sign of strength rally to ~3190 (Dec 3), backup/LPS in ~3025–3065, and today’s SOS rally toward ~3390. We are likely in Phase D advancing toward Phase E (markup), favoring long setups on shallow retracements.

2. Moving averages and trend filters Daily MAs (approx)

• 20‑DMA ≈ 3050–3100: price 3305 is above the 20‑DMA, showing regained short‑term uptrend.
• 50‑DMA ≈ 3400–3500: price is approaching from below; the area 3400–3500 is a natural first upside magnet and potential friction zone.
• 200‑DMA ≈ upper 3500s–low 3600s: still above, but reachable on continuation legs. Interpretation: Bullish short‑term regime, with the next technical test around the 50‑DMA band near 3435–3500.

Hourly MAs

• EMA ribbon bullishly stacked (8 > 21 > 55) post‑breakout; price is comfortably above the 200‑hour MA (likely ~3180–3200). Momentum pullbacks into the 21–55 EMA zone typically find dip demand in bullish phases.

3. Momentum indicators RSI

• Daily RSI rising out of a prior bear range; likely mid‑50s to low‑60s. Room exists before traditional overbought (>70) on the daily, consistent with more upside potential.
• Hourly RSI spiked into the 70–80 zone on the breakout and cooled on the pullback toward 3300. That resets intraday froth and sets the stage for another push higher.

MACD

• Daily MACD crossed positive in early December; histogram expanding again post backtest. This supports a fresh impulse leg.
• Hourly MACD turned up with strong positive histogram during the breakout; the pullback reduced but did not negate momentum, suggesting consolidation within an up‑impulse.

Stochastic

• Daily stochastic cycling up, consistent with an early to mid‑upswing. Hourly stochastic reset on the dip into 3300, creating room for a re‑acceleration.

4. Volatility and bands Bollinger Bands (daily)

• 20‑day basis ~3050–3100; upper band likely mid‑3400s. Price is in the upper half but not pinned; a continuation push toward or slightly beyond the upper band (3435–3500) is plausible within 24h. ATR
• 14‑day ATR roughly 170–220. Today’s intraday range (~303 points high‑to‑low) already expanded, but after a cooling period, another 100–150 point move is feasible within 24h, consistent with a 3435–3460 test.

5. Price action and patterns

• Breakout flag: Pole from ~3120 to ~3370 (≈250 pts), followed by a tight flag 3360–3300. A measured move from a 3360 break projects ~3610; that is more of a 48–72h objective. Near‑term, a retest of 3435–3450 (prior pivot confluence, 50‑DMA area) is the first objective.
• Support ladder: 3330–3340 (intraday shelf), 3290–3305 (post‑breakout value area and round‑number shelf), 3250–3265 (session pivot zone), then 3210–3225 and 3180–3200 (200‑hour vicinity). While 3290–3305 is the preferred buy zone, deeper dips toward 3265–3280 would be opportunities unless 3210 breaks.

6. Fibonacci mapping Swings

• Major swing up: 2627 (Nov 21) to 3396 (Dec 9) = 769 pts. 38.2% retrace sits near 3396 − 0.382×769 ≈ 3099; price respected 3090–3140 repeatedly, validating the level. 23.6% near 3215 was shallowly probed and bought.
• Intermediate motiff: 2800 (Dec 1) to 3192 (Dec 3) = 392; pullback to 3024–3061 (~38–50% retrace) and extension targets from the 3024 pivot: 1.0 = 3416, 1.272 ≈ 3515, 1.618 ≈ 3656. Today reached 3390s, just shy of the 1.0 extension; next magnets are 3415 then 3515. Implication: 3415–3435 is a near‑term target. A stretch to 3515 is the next extension if momentum persists beyond 24h.

7. Ichimoku view (daily)

• Tenkan‑sen (9‑period mid) ≈ 3050–3060; Kijun‑sen (26‑period mid) ≈ ~3000–3020. Price (3305) is above both, signaling bullish control.
• Span A likely rising above Span B; price is above the cloud, or at least above turning and base lines, consistent with an emerging bullish phase.

8. Volume, VWAP, and flows

• Breakout candles at 15:00–17:00 UTC showed marked volume expansion vs prior hours, confirming participation.
• Post‑breakout consolidation volume tapered, typical of a healthy flag. No immediate distribution signature.
• Intraday VWAP post‑spike sits in the mid‑3330s initially, then drifted lower with consolidation; price hovering just beneath/around VWAP often precedes a VWAP reclaim push. A clean reclaim of VWAP and hold above 3335–3340 would signal continuation toward 3400+.

9. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 2627 → 3192 (≈565)
• Wave 2: retrace to 3024–3061
• Wave 3 underway: equal length projects 3024 + 565 ≈ 3589; conservative sub‑targets align with 3415–3450 first, then 3515–3590. Within 24h, the 3415–3450 pocket is realistic; 3515+ is possible if momentum reignites strongly.

10. Classical and floor pivots

• Using today’s provisional H/L/C (3396/3093/3305): Pivot P ≈ 3264.7, R1 ≈ 3436.6, R2 ≈ 3567.7, S1 ≈ 3133.6. Interpretation: Price is presently above P and targeting R1; an initial upside test of 3435–3440 is the base case. R2 likely requires a secondary impulse or broader market tailwind.

11. Confluence map for the next 24 hours Upside confluences

• 3415–3450: Fibonacci 1.0 extension from 3024, daily upper Bollinger vicinity, daily 50‑DMA band, and R1 cluster.
• 3500–3520: round number, 1.272 fib extension (~3515), prior structural shelf from October. Downside supports
• 3290–3305: breakout retest zone and round‑number shelf; preferred entry region.
• 3255–3265: session pivot neighborhood; secondary buy zone if volatility expands.
• 3210–3225: prior demand and 200‑hour MA proximity; break below would threaten the immediate bullish thesis.

12. Risk management and invalidation

• Invalidation for the 24h long idea: sustained acceptance below 3210–3225 (hourly close) or a decisive loss of 3180 (200‑hour) turns the setup into a range or failed breakout; would defer longs.
• Expected pullback depth: 0.236–0.382 of today’s impulse implies 3285–3320 is the most probable dip‑buy window.

13. Probability and path

• Base case (≈60–65%): Hold 3290–3330, reclaim VWAP, push to 3415–3450, stall near R1/50‑DMA.
• Bullish extension (≈20–25%): Quick punch through 3450, running stops into 3490–3520, then consolidate.
• Bearish alt (≈10–15%): Fail to reclaim VWAP, drift to 3250–3265; only below 3210 does the breakout thesis materially weaken.

Trade plan (24h tactical)

• Direction: Long only, buy the dip.
• Entry: Limit near 3290–3300 where breakout support, intraday shelf, and shallow fib overlap. This aims for positive skew with tight risk below 3250–3265 if you employ a stop.
• Profit target: 3435–3455 cluster; take partials into R1 and daily 50‑DMA friction.
• Optional stop (not required but prudent): 3245–3250 (below pivot S1 path and under the intraday shelf).

Conclusion The weight of evidence across structure, momentum, volume, fib confluences, and pivots supports a buy‑the‑dip strategy. The most probable path in the next 24 hours is a VWAP reclaim and continuation toward 3435–3450, with scope to overshoot if momentum reignites. I prefer a limit long around 3296 with targets in the mid‑3400s.