ETH: Buy the Dip Into 3310–3290 for a Rebound Toward 3435–3450 Within 24 Hours

Executive Summary

• Regime: Short-term uptrend within a medium-term recovery, still below higher-timeframe supply. Bullish momentum cooled after intraday rejection at 3444–3450.
• Bias (next 24h): Buy-the-dip favored. Expect early dip toward 3310–3290 support, then rebound toward 3400–3435; breakout risk to 3450+. Downside risk extends to pivot 3269 if support fails.
• Plan: Staggered long entry on pullback; primary limit at ~3310 with add near 3290; TP 3435–3450; protective risk below 3250.

1. Market Structure and Trend (Multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure: From the Nov 21 low (2626.9 intraday) ETH has posted higher lows and higher highs: 2766 (Nov 22), 2802 (Nov 23), 2953 (Nov 24), 3028 (Nov 26), 3061 (Dec 7), 3125 (Dec 8), 3321 (Dec 9). Today’s push to 3444 extends that sequence.
• Weekly context (implied from daily series): September–October distribution above 4k resolved into a sharp October–November drawdown to 2.63k. Current bounce has retraced a shallow portion of that selloff; longer-term trend remains neutral-to-down until 3.6–3.8k is reclaimed on a closing basis.
• 4h/1h structure: Since Dec 6, price has been stair-stepping higher. Intraday today formed a higher high (3444) but closed the hour back under 3400, printing a long upper wick—a local sign of supply around 3425–3450.
• Conclusion: Short-term uptrend intact; immediate term shows a momentum pause/reversion after an overextension.

2. Moving Averages and Crossovers

• Daily 20-SMA (approx): ~2992 and rising. Price at 3342 sits well above the 20-SMA, indicating bullish short-term momentum with room for mean reversion if extended.
• Daily 50-SMA (approx): mid- to upper-3.3k–3.6k band (est.). Price is flirting with/just below this MA cluster; expect it to act as dynamic resistance between 3400–3550.
• Daily 100/200-SMA (directional): Likely above price given the extended Sep–Oct highs; these represent higher-timeframe headwinds into 3.6–4.0k.
• 4h EMAs (8/21): Upward slope; recent intraday rejection likely pulled price back toward the 21-EMA zone (~3310–3330), a typical buy-the-dip area in an uptrend.
• Read: Short-term MAs support dips; intermediate MAs overhead create a supply shelf into 3450–3550.

3. Momentum Oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (approx): High 50s to low 60s—bullish but not overbought. Momentum supports continuation after consolidation.
• Hourly RSI: Reached overbought on the run to 3444 and rolled over, likely producing a bearish divergence vs the earlier 3379 high. That favors a near-term dip/reversion before trend continuation.
• Stochastics (1h/4h): Rolling down from overbought, consistent with a retest of 3310–3290 before momentum resets.
• MACD (daily): Bullish histogram build and signal-line cross likely in progress since early December; a shallow pullback would maintain constructive posture.

4. Volatility and Range

• Daily ATR(14) (est.): 170–220. Expect a ±200 range around VWAP/close. With current ~3342, a typical swing spans roughly 3240–3540 within 24h, barring shocks.
• Today’s intraday range: 3291–3444. A retest of mid-range (~3360–3385 VWAP zone) and lower support (3310–3290) is statistically reasonable.

5. Volume, VWAP, and Profile

• Rising volume on advances into Dec 9–10 (notably the 17:00–20:00 UTC hours) signaled genuine interest; however, the heavy supply into 3440–3450 shows profit-taking/liquidity.
• Session VWAP (approx today): ~3380–3390. Current price below VWAP implies late-session sellers in control, often followed by an early retest lower (3310–3290) before a rebound attempt toward VWAP and R1 bands.
• Volume nodes: Acceptance zones around 3320–3340 and 3390–3405; low-volume pocket near 3360 suggests whipsaws.

6. Support/Resistance (HTF + LTF confluence)

• Immediate resistance: 3403–3427 (hourly highs), 3444–3450 (session high/offer wall). Above that: 3500–3520 (psychological/supply), then 3573 (pivot R2 from prior day’s calc).
• Immediate support: 3340–3320 (intraday cluster), 3310 (hourly base), 3291 (today’s session low), 3269–3270 (classic daily pivot P derived from 12/9), 3230–3255 (daily shelf).
• Higher-timeframe supply: 3550–3650 (50SMA/extension zone).

7. Fibonacci Frameworks

• Swing Nov 21 low (2626.9) to Dec 10 high (3444.2):
  • 23.6%: ~3251 (first shallow retrace/support)
  • 38.2%: ~3132
  • 50%: ~3035
  • 61.8%: ~2939 Current ~3342 is above 23.6%—a textbook shallow pullback zone; 3250–3260 is the key higher-low defense.
• Near-term extension (Dec 6 ~3014 to Dec 10 ~3444):
  • 1.272: ~3577
  • 1.618: ~3679 A clean break and hold above 3450 opens path toward 3575–3680 over the next few sessions; within 24h, 3450–3500 is realistic if momentum reignites.

8. Pivot Points (based on Dec 9 H/L/C: 3395.8/3092.9/3321.1)

• Pivot P: ~3269.9
• R1: ~3387.0 (tested/faded today)
• R2: ~3572.9
• S1: ~3144.0 Price pushed above R1 then closed back below it intraday—this failed R1 hold statistically favors a retest of P (3269–3275) before another attempt higher. That aligns with the 23.6% fib and hourly base.

9. Ichimoku (directional approximation)

• Daily Tenkan above Kijun with price above both—bullish TK cross backdrop.
• Price still below the cloud (assumed 3.5–3.7k region), so the setup is early-cycle recovery beneath higher-timeframe resistance.
• 4h cloud: Price likely testing the top of or slightly above cloud earlier; pullback toward the Kijun/Span A around 3310–3330 is consistent with a buyable dip.

10. Pattern Recognition and Candles

• Intraday: Long upper wick at 3444 after a strong advance—shooting-star-like behavior on the hour; often leads to a 1–3 bar pullback before trend resumes.
• Daily: Breakout day yesterday (Dec 9) closed near highs; today’s expansion and retreat resembles a continuation day with profit-taking. No decisive bearish reversal on daily; more like an overextension cooling off.

11. Order Flow/Liquidity Map

• Liquidity likely resting above 3450 (stops/continuation orders) and below 3290 (late longs’ protection).
• Expect stop-hunt risk into 3290–3310 followed by responsive buying; if 3290 breaks impulsively, watch for a sweep to 3269 pivot and swift bounce.

12. Statistical/Behavioral Tendencies

• Post upper-band closes (Bollinger with 20SMA): Tendency for 1–2 sessions of consolidation/mean reversion. Given 20SMA ~2992 is far below, consolidation likely occurs sideways-to-down toward 3310–3269 rather than a full mean reversion in a single day.
• Breakout-fade days often see next-day initial weakness that is bought if bigger trend is up—matching our dip-buy bias.

13. Elliott Wave Sketch (heuristic)

• From Dec 1 (2800) to Dec 3 (3192): wave 1; Dec 4–5 pullback to 3024: wave 2; Dec 6–9 advance to 3321: wave 3; Dec 10 spike to 3444: potential wave 5 or wave 3 extension with micro 4 underway. Either way, a modest wave 4 pullback to 3310–3269 then a push toward 3435–3500 fits the template.

14. Confluence Summary Bullish Factors:

• Higher highs/lows since late Nov; price > 20SMA and > 4h EMAs.
• Daily MACD momentum positive; RSI not overbought on daily.
• Fib 23.6% at ~3251 and daily pivot at ~3269 form a thick support band; multiple intraday bases 3290–3320.

Bearish/Risk Factors:

• Intraday bearish divergence and rejection at 3444–3450; price below session VWAP into the close.
• Overhead higher-timeframe MAs/cloud into 3450–3600.
• If 3290 fails, a run to 3269 (pivot) and possibly 3230–3255 is plausible before buyers step back in.

15. Next 24-Hour Outlook

• Base case (55%): Dip to 3310–3290, then recovery to 3395–3435; potential late-session probe of 3445 if momentum reasserts.
• Range case (30%): Choppy 3290–3405, closes near 3360–3390.
• Bear case (15%): Break 3290 → 3269 pivot test; if pivot fails on volume, extension to 3235–3250 before a reflex bounce.

Trading Plan (execution-oriented)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip.
• Entry: Primary limit 3310 (near intraday base/EMA support). Optional add: 3290 (sweep level).
• Target: 3438 (beneath 3444 supply to improve fill probability); stretch 3450–3460 if momentum is strong.
• Risk: Invalidation below 3250–3255 (under pivot/fib cluster) to preserve 2R+.
• R/R Example: Entry 3310, TP 3438 (+128), stop 3254 (−56) ≈ 2.3R.

Bottom Line Expect a shallow pullback toward 3310–3290 first, followed by a recovery leg targeting 3395–3435 and possibly a retest of 3445. The dip is buyable while 3269–3250 holds.