ETH coils above 3.2k: buy-the-dip into 3,235 for a push toward 3,348

Summary snapshot

• Instrument: ETH/USD
• Current price: 3,252.66
• Session range (1h data, last 24h): 3,149 – 3,271
• Recent daily path: Major drawdown Sep→Nov, base around 2,765–2,800 late Nov, impulsive rally to 3,446 (Dec 10), pullback to 3,150–3,200 zone, rebound into 3,250.

Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Higher time frame (Daily): Downtrend from September highs (~4,700+) decisively broken in momentum terms post-Nov low; price now carving a series of higher lows (2,766 on Nov 21 → 2,800 on Dec 1 → 3,024 on Dec 5 → 3,061 on Dec 7 → intraday 3,158 on Dec 11) and higher highs (3,212 on Dec 3 → 3,446 on Dec 10). Short-term trend up inside a still-below-long-term averages context.
• Medium term: Price has reclaimed the 3,000–3,150 demand band and is oscillating between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the Nov downswing (details below), indicating a tactical bullish bias while accepting overhead resistance near 3,330–3,450.
• Intraday (1h): After a morning slide to 3,149–3,166, ETH printed higher lows and a strong 21:00 UTC impulse to 3,250; structure tilted bullish into the New York afternoon/close with value migrating higher.

Key levels (confluence map)

• Resistance:
  • 3,327–3,350: 61.8% retrace of Nov swing + prior daily closes (Dec 9–10) and intraday supply. First upside objective.
  • 3,396–3,447: Prior daily highs (Dec 9–10) and upper Bollinger envelope region; major lid.
  • 3,500: Psychological and measured move extension of current upswing; stretch target.
• Support:
  • 3,220–3,230: Fibonacci 50% retracement (≈3,222) + hourly VWAP/value cluster; ideal buy-the-dip zone.
  • 3,160–3,180: Intraday swing lows and rising short-term trendline test; today’s defended area (3,158–3,166).
  • 3,120–3,140: Daily pivot area (Dec 4–8 closes); below here momentum weakens.
  • 2,990–3,030: Round-number shelf and late-Nov acceptance; failure here would negate the short-term uptrend.

Indicator suite and what each says

1. Moving Averages (Daily)

• 10D SMA ≈ 3,147 (computed) – price above; short-term trend supportive.
• 20D SMA ≈ 3,060–3,100 (estimated) – price above; momentum has turned positive vs the monthly mean.
• 50D SMA ≈ 3,600–3,800 (estimated, given Sep–Oct data) – price below; longer-term trend still down, capping rallies. Takeaway: Bullish short-term above 10/20D, but still below the 50D regime; rallies likely to meet supply into 3.40–3.60k until the 50D flattens/rolls.

2. Exponential MAs (Daily/1h)

• Daily 8/21 EMA likely crossed up during the first week of Dec; slope positive.
• Hourly 20/50 EMA: 20 EMA reclaimed and flattening up; 50 EMA around 3,200–3,210 and rising; supportive of a buy-the-dip approach into 3,22x–3,23x.

3. RSI

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 61–62 (approx calc): Bullish momentum but not overbought; room to extend toward mid/high-60s if price pushes 3,33x–3,40x.
• Hourly RSI: Reset from mid-30s to 50s–60s after the 21:00 thrust; constructive for continuation if pullbacks hold >40–45 RSI.

4. MACD (Daily/1h)

• Daily MACD turned positive after Dec 3–5 surge; histogram likely compressing after Dec 10 pullback; bias still up but needs fresh impulse above ~3,30x to re-expand.
• Hourly MACD crossed up on the 18:00–21:00 sequence; intraday momentum supports a test of 3,27x–3,30x with dips being bought.

5. Bollinger Bands (Daily)

• 20D mid-band around 3,10x; upper band around 3,40x–3,45x. Price tapped the upper band (Dec 10 high 3,446) and mean-reverted; now in the upper half of the envelope. Statistical room to revisit 3,33x–3,40x if buyers defend the mid-to-upper band drift.

6. Ichimoku (Daily/1h)

• Daily: Price above Tenkan (~3,21x) and Kijun (~3,03x) but likely still below the long-term cloud top (Span B estimated high ~3,6–3,7k) and under cloud resistance in the 3,40–3,50k zone. Short-term bullish while longer-term headwinds persist.
• Hourly: Price hovering at/above the Kijun; Tenkan rising; price recently cleared a thin intraday cloud. Supports a continuation attempt, conditional on holding 3,22x–3,24x.

7. Fibonacci (from Nov 11 swing high ~3,645 to Dec 1 swing low ~2,800)

• 38.2%: ≈ 3,117
• 50%: ≈ 3,222
• 61.8%: ≈ 3,327 Price rejected in front of 61.8% (Dec 10: 3,446 spike then fade) and is oscillating between 50% and 61.8%. Holding above the 50% (3,22x) favors another try at 3,33x–3,35x.

8. Elliott Wave (tactical count)

• Wave 1: 2,800 → ~3,190 (Dec 3)
• Wave 2: ~3,190 → ~3,024/3,040 (Dec 4–6)
• Wave 3: ~3,040 → 3,446 (Dec 10)
• Wave 4: 3,446 → 3,15x–3,25x (Dec 10–11)
• Potential Wave 5: Challenge 3,38x–3,50x over next 1–3 days. For the next 24h, a modest 5th wave probe to 3,33x–3,36x is plausible if 3,22x holds.

9. Candlestick diagnostics

• Daily: Dec 9 large white candle; Dec 10 long upper wick/shooting-star-like near resistance; today’s red-to-neutral body around 3,25x sets up a potential evening-star variant—but confirmation would require a decisive close below ~3,22x. Intraday defense of 3,16x–3,18x weakens that bearish setup.
• Hourly: Strong green candle at 21:00 reclaimed 3,25x; sequence suggests short-term buyers in control above 3,22x.

10. Volume, OBV, and market profile

• Daily volumes rose into the rally; pullback volumes moderate compared with recent surge—classic bullish consolidation signature.
• OBV (qualitatively) trending higher since Dec 1; no decisive distribution print on the pullback.
• Intraday value: Heavy rotation/prints around 3,19x–3,22x; today’s POC likely in the 3,20x area. Acceptance above that node typically allows tests of 3,27x–3,30x.

11. VWAPs (qualitative)

• Intraday session VWAP clustered near 3,22x–3,23x; price above into the close, supportive of longs while above VWAP on dips.

12. Volatility/ATR

• Daily ATR(14) estimated around 170–220; implies typical session swings of ±150–200. Expect a 24h envelope roughly 3,150–3,450 absent catalyst.
• Hourly ATR compressed midday then expanded on the 21:00 thrust; short-term breakouts may carry 30–50 points with follow-through.

13. Divergences

• Minor daily bearish divergence risk between Dec 9 and Dec 10 (price higher, momentum not expanding commensurately). This explains the pullback and argues for step-wise upside rather than a straight-line breakout.
• Intraday bullish divergence: 14:00–16:00 lows vs RSI troughs showed improvement, then price impulsed higher—supports buy-the-dip bias.

Synthesis

• The short-term uptrend remains intact above 3,22x with constructive intraday structure and multiple confluences (50% Fib, VWAP, hourly Kijun, 20/50 EMA cradle). Overhead supply thickens near 3,33x–3,35x and again at 3,40x–3,45x.
• The most probable next-24h path: consolidation-to-upward drift, probing 3,30x → 3,33x–3,35x if 3,22x holds. A break below 3,22x would likely retest 3,16x–3,14x before attempting another bounce; loss of 3,12x risks a deeper mean reversion toward 3,06x–3,03x.

Scenario matrix (next 24h)

• Base case (60%): Hold 3,22x → grind to 3,30x–3,35x; intraday spikes possible to 3,37x.
• Pullback/bounce (30%): Sweep 3,18x–3,16x liquidity → reversal to 3,30x.
• Bear break (10%): Clean break <3,12x → accelerate to 3,06x–3,02x.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Buy the dip into 3,23x with stops below today’s liquidity sweep; target first resistance band.
• Entry (limit): 3,235 (near 50% Fib and session VWAP/POC cluster), accepting current 3,25x may backfill.
• Invalidation/stop (not part of output fields, but critical): 3,152 (below today’s 3,158 low and the rising intraday trendline). Conservative traders may use 3,128 below daily pivot.
• Take-profit 1: 3,348 (prior resistance/61.8% band underside). Take-profit 2 (runner): 3,385–3,400 if momentum expands.
• Risk/Reward (TP1): +113 vs -83 ≈ 1.36:1; improves to ~1.8:1 at 3,385.

Risk notes

• Overhead supply from the still-declining 50D SMA and the Dec 10 rejection suggests choppy advances; scale out into strength.
• A daily close below 3,120 would negate the bullish setup and shift bias to range back toward 3,060–3,000.

24-hour price prediction

• Expected range: 3,160–3,360, with excursion risk to 3,385 if momentum accelerates.
• Directional bias: Mildly bullish; buy dips above 3,22x.

Decision

• Given the confluence of the 50% retracement, intraday VWAP/POC, hourly MA/Ichimoku supports and improving momentum, the preferred action is Buy on a pullback toward 3,235, targeting 3,348 in the next session, with a protective stop under 3,152.