ETH poised for a spring: buy the 3.05k dip for a snapback toward 3.16k within 24 hours

Executive summary

• ETH closed around 3082 after a 4-day pullback from the 3446 swing high on Dec 10. Price now sits in a high-confluence demand cluster around 3080–3050 that aligns with a 0.5 retracement of the Nov 21 to Dec 10 upleg, the daily value area, and near-term pivot supports. Intraday action shows a slow grind lower with waning momentum and the first signs of bullish divergence on the hourly. Base case for the next 24 hours is a stabilization to mild bounce into 3140–3170, with risk of a liquidity sweep into 3055–3035 before reversing.

Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Higher-timeframe (daily): From the Nov 21 low ~2627 to the Dec 10 high ~3447, structure is higher highs and higher lows; the current drawdown is a corrective leg within that uptrend. The impulsive rally leg retraced to the 0.5–0.382 Fibonacci zone (3037–3133), which is a typical buy-the-dip area if the uptrend is intact. The uptrend only structurally breaks below ~2990–2950 (0.618 retracement ~2939).
• Medium-term: ETH remains below the declining 50-day moving average (approximation), so medium-term trend is not fully confirmed; however, the 20-day and 21-EMA are flattening and close to price, signaling potential basing.
• Short-term (hourly): Since Dec 10, price has been moving in a descending channel with lower highs and lower lows, but the slope has moderated today. A falling wedge look is emerging as ranges compress around 3080–3100.

Key levels (composite)

• Support: 3133 (0.382 of 2627→3447), 3118 (Ichimoku Kijun estimate), 3086 (daily S1 pivot from Dec 13), 3056 (daily S2), 3037 (0.5 retracement), 3000 psychological, 2990–2950 (structure/0.618 = 2939).
• Resistance: 3141 (R1 pivot), 3165–3168 (R2 pivot / fib confluence), 3190–3200 (prior acceptance and 12/03 close), 3235, 3325, 3390–3446 (swing high region).

Moving averages and momentum

• Daily MA/EMA: Price is near/just below the 20-SMA/21-EMA cluster around 3080–3100. Sustained closes back above ~3120 would reassert short-term bullish control; sub-3035 closes risk deeper retracement to 2990–2950.
• MACD (daily): Bearish crossover after Dec 10, histogram negative but contracting the last sessions; suggests sell momentum is fading. On hourly, MACD is basing and close to crossing up if price stabilizes above 3080.
• RSI: Daily estimated mid-40s; no oversold yet, consistent with a pullback in uptrend. Hourly RSI showed a higher low when price printed 3069–3070 versus the earlier 3059 low (bullish divergence), supportive of a bounce attempt.
• Stochastics: Hourly stoch near oversold and curling; daily stoch falling from overbought but not broken—typical corrective action.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily estimated ~150–180. Expected 1-day envelope from 3080 is roughly 2920–3240.
• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): Mid-band near ~3085; price is oscillating around the mid-band after tagging the upper band earlier in the week. On hourly, bands have tightened, indicating a volatility contraction/squeeze; resolution within the next sessions is likely.

Ichimoku

• Tenkan-sen (9) approximated ~3215–3220; Kijun-sen (26) near ~3118; price below Tenkan and slightly below Kijun indicates near-term corrective phase. A reclaim of Kijun then Tenkan would confirm momentum shift back to bulls. Cloud context likely still above or near price—neutral to slightly bearish near-term until reclaimed.

Fibonacci mapping

• Primary swing Nov 21 low 2627 to Dec 10 high 3447:
  • 38.2% = ~3133 (just above current), 50% = ~3037, 61.8% = ~2939. Price is between 38.2 and 50%—a typical buy zone. A spike toward 3035–3055 would test the 50% area and daily S2, a high-probability reaction zone.
• Secondary swing Dec 3 low ~2988 to Dec 10 high ~3447:
  • 61.8% = ~3163–3165 (now resistance), 78.6% ~3070 (recent intraday reaction). Acceptance above 3165 would strengthen the bull case.

Volume, VWAP, and profile

• Weekend volumes are muted, but relative spikes appeared into 18:00–20:00 UTC on minor sell pressure that failed to extend below 3069. That failure could denote supply absorption at 3070–3080.
• Volume profile over the last two weeks shows a prominent node around 3100 and a secondary node around 2990–3000. Price is currently rotating in the value area; moves away from 3100 tend to mean-revert unless a catalyst pushes through low-volume pockets toward 3165 or 3035.
• Session VWAP drifted around 3095–3100; price slightly below suggests mild bearish bias intraday, but repeated inability to break 3060–3070 argues for a potential VWAP recapture to kick off a bounce.

Pivots and intraday map (based on Dec 13 H/L/C = 3134.85/3080.08/3116.70)

• Pivot P ~ 3110.54, S1 ~ 3086.23, S2 ~ 3055.77, S3 ~ 2994.30, R1 ~ 3141.00, R2 ~ 3165.31, R3 ~ 3226.78. Current price is oscillating just under S1 and above S2, a classic mean-reversion pocket. A sweep into S2 (3056) followed by a recovery above S1 would be a textbook long trigger toward R1–R2.

Pattern diagnostics

• Falling wedge on the hourly with compressing ranges; break of the wedge top near 3115–3125 would target 3140 then 3165. A brief stop run under 3060 into 3050–3035 would complete a spring pattern in a Wyckoff sense before markup.
• Candlesticks: Today’s daily candle is shaping as a small real body after a lower wick early in the session, signaling indecision and potential basing if the close holds above 3075–3080.

Divergences and breadth

• Hourly bullish divergence (price lower low at ~3069 vs earlier ~3059 while RSI/ MACD hist higher). On balance volume has flattened rather than breaking down, consistent with distribution slowing.

Regression and channels

• Linear regression channel from Nov 21 low to Dec 10 high shows price now near the lower bound; mean reversion suggests a push back toward the midline ~3160–3180 over the next 24–48 hours absent new downside catalyst.

Risk scenarios and probabilities (next 24h)

• Base case ~60%: Liquidity sweep toward 3055–3035, quick reclaim of 3086 S1, grind to 3141, extension toward 3165–3170 if hourly breaks out.
• Range case ~25%: Value rotation between 3060 and 3125 with VWAP pin; modest close near 3110–3130 without decisive trend.
• Bear case ~15%: Clean break and acceptance below 3035 opens 2990–2950 (0.618 retracement) test; would negate the long setup for the day.

Trade plan and levels

• Bias: Buy the dip (long) into 3055–3035 with a limit order and tight invalidation below 2990. Rationale: confluence of Fibonacci 0.5 (3037), daily S2 (3056), profile support, and early bullish divergence.
• Entry: Optimal limit around 3056 (just above S2 to improve fill odds).
• Target: 3166 (R2 area and fib confluence) within 24 hours if the bounce engages. Partial scaling at 3141 (R1) is prudent operationally; full target listed below per requirement.
• Invalidation/stop (for risk management, not part of the output fields): Below 2990 (structure break and 0.618 proximity), or if the hourly accepts below 3030 for >2 hours with rising volume.

Catalyst and timing notes

• Asia open through early Europe often sets the initial direction on Mondays; a stop run in the first hours is common. Watch for a quick probe below 3060 followed by immediate absorption and reclaim of 3086; that is the trigger for the bounce toward 3140–3165.

Conclusion

• Technicals favor a tactical long: higher-timeframe uptrend intact, price at 0.5–0.382 retracement support, hourly bullish divergence, pivot confluence, and regression-channel lower bound. Expect a stabilization and push toward 3140–3165 over the next 24 hours, with downside limited by 3035–2990 support zone. Decision: Buy. Open near 3056; target 3166.