ETH: Sell the Bounce — Short into 2,95k Resistance, Target 2,79k Within 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24 hours: Bearish with a sell-the-bounce setup. Expect a minor relief rally into 2,93k–2,96k followed by continuation lower toward 2,80k–2,78k.
• Optimal plan: Short into the 61.8% intraday retracement/supply confluence near ~2,952 and target the first daily pivot support around ~2,789–2,790.
• Invalidation (short-term): Sustained reclaim above 2,979–3,025 would weaken the short and open a squeeze toward ~3,096.

1. Price action and market structure

• Higher-timeframe context (Daily):
  • ETH topped near 3,446 on Dec 10, then printed a sequence of lower highs: 3,265 (Dec 12), ~3,175 (Dec 15), and ~3,024 (intraday today). Lower lows are developing; this is classic bearish market structure.
  • Current price 2,860 is below the probable 20D SMA (low 3,0xx) and well below the 50D SMA (mid–high 3k), confirming momentum is down. The Nov 21 swing low zone 2,767–2,705 (and ultimate 2,627) is the next high-probability demand cluster.
  • Key daily support/resistance map:
    • Resistance: 3,025 (today’s failure), 2,979–3,000 (pivot R1 cluster), 2,933–2,960 (61.8% retrace intraday + hourly EMA confluence), 3,125–3,150, 3,325–3,446.
    • Support: 2,860 (spot), 2,835 (today’s low), 2,801 (78.6% of Nov21→Dec10 leg), 2,789 (Daily S1), 2,767, 2,705, 2,627.
• Intraday (Hourly):
  • Strong rejection wick: A stop-run to 3,024 was slammed down to 2,903 in the 15:00 hour on elevated volume, then extended to 2,835. This is a bearish engulfing impulse on H1.
  • Current bounce attempts are shallow; rallies are sold, consistent with a descending channel from Dec 10 highs.
  • Micro-structure suggests a likely mean-reversion bounce into the 2,93x–2,95x supply before sellers reassert.

2. Candlestick and pattern read

• Today’s session is shaping as a shooting-star/upper-wick failure near 3,0k on heavy hour volume—typical of distributive supply at round-number resistance.
• Since Dec 10, price respects a descending channel; we’re near the lower rail. Shorts are higher quality on rallies toward the mid/upper rail rather than at the very lows.

3. Moving averages (trend/momentum)

• Daily: Price < 20D SMA and < 50D SMA, with a negative 9/21 EMA crossover since Dec 12—downtrend confirmation.
• Hourly: 9/21/50 EMAs are stacked bearishly; rallies tend to stall around the 21/50 EMA band currently near the low–mid 2,9ks.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (daily) is sliding toward low 30s, not yet extreme but bearish; room for a brief bounce exists before further downside.
• RSI (hourly) showed a momentum flush at 2,835 and has only marginally recovered—typical of bear-market rallies that fade under the 50–55 RSI zone.
• Stochastics (H1/H4) near oversold indicate bounce risk, but in downtrends oversold can persist; best used to time entries into resistance rather than bottom-picking.

5. MACD

• Daily MACD has rolled negative post-Dec 10, with widening histogram—bearish impulse likely has not fully exhausted.
• Hourly MACD attempted a cross up but below the zero line; often a bull trap in a larger downtrend, favoring fades into resistance.

6. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Daily ATR ~170–200 points. Today’s high-to-low swing (~190) sits within ATR, so a further 150–200 point extension lower within 24h is plausible.
• Price is riding the lower Bollinger Band on Daily. That can produce snap-backs, but until the mid-band (~20D SMA) is reclaimed, rallies are opportunities to sell.

7. Volume/flow read

• Large sell volume on the 15:00 hour during the 3,024 rejection signals aggressive supply overhead. Subsequent hours show diminished buy effort with weak result—distributional.

8. Fibonacci analysis

• Primary swing (Nov 21 low 2,627 → Dec 10 high 3,446; range 819):
  • 38.2%: ~3,133, 50%: ~3,033, 61.8%: ~2,933, 78.6%: ~2,801.
  • Price is now below the 61.8% (2,933), heading toward the 78.6% (2,801)—bearish control.
• Intraday swing (today’s H 3,024.7 → L 2,835.2; range ~189.5):
  • 50%: ~2,929.5, 61.8%: ~2,951.8, 78.6%: ~2,983.6.
  • The 61.8% at ~2,952 aligns with hourly EMA resistance and prior breakdown zone—prime short entry.

9. Classic floor pivots (computed from today’s H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ 2,906.97
• R1 ≈ 2,978.70; R2 ≈ 3,096.46
• S1 ≈ 2,789.20; S2 ≈ 2,717.47
• Confluence: R1 near 2,979 (round 3k cap) and S1 near 2,789 align well with the sell-the-bounce idea and the profit target.

10. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud overhead. Lagging span under price and cloud—trend bearish.

11. Anchored VWAP (qualitative)

• From the Dec 10 pivot high, an anchored VWAP would sit above current price (low 3k area). Being below AVWAP signals bears in control; rejections at AVWAP pullbacks are common.

12. Elliott Wave perspective (heuristic)

• Nov 21 → Dec 10 impulsive advance likely completed a counter-trend leg. The decline since Dec 10 counts as an ABC where current leg looks like C’s acceleration (or 3 of C). That favors downside continuation after a corrective bounce.

13. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Bounce to 2,93x–2,96x, reject, trend resumes to 2,80x → tags 2,789–2,801 support. Close around 2,79x–2,82x.
• Bear extension (25%): Shallow bounce stalls sub-2,93, drives straight to 2,767–2,745, possible flush to 2,705 if liquidity thins.
• Bull surprise (15%): Strong reclaim above 2,979–3,000 and hold >3,025 triggers squeeze toward 3,070–3,100 (R2). Trend assessment would need updating if that holds.

14. Trade thesis and execution plan

• Edge: Confluence short at resistance (intraday 61.8% retrace ~2,952 + hourly EMA band + prior breakdown shelf), with a logical target at S1 (~2,789) and broader daily supports (2,801/2,767). This aligns with prevailing downtrend and negative momentum, while also using a bounce entry to improve reward-to-risk.
• Timing: Wait for price to rally into 2,948–2,956; enter short near 2,952. If price overshoots, 2,978–2,985 (R1/78.6% intraday) is the secondary add zone, but a sustained hold above 3,025 invalidates the short idea.
• Target: First target 2,789 (Daily S1) aligns with 78.6% retrace of the larger swing cluster (2,801 area). Expect bids to appear between 2,80x and 2,78x.

15. 24-hour path prediction

• Initial Asian/early EU session relief rally into 2,93x–2,95x, fade by NY session, expansion lower toward 2,80x with spikes to 2,78x possible before stabilization.

Decision: Sell (Short). Enter on a bounce, not at the lows.