ETH at the Cliff: Rejected at 3K, Eyeing a Sweep of the 2.76K Shelf — Short the Bounce

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Bearish-to-sideways. Expect a range 2,775–2,895 with risk of a downside extension toward 2,720 if 2,775 breaks on momentum; upside likely capped into 2,960–3,000 on rallies.
• Optimal plan: Short into a relief bounce (sell the rip) rather than chase at support. Best risk-adjusted entry sits just under reclaimed intraday supply around 2,898–2,915.
• Primary target: 2,765–2,780 support shelf; stretch target if momentum accelerates: 2,720.

1. Multi-timeframe market structure and context

• Higher timeframe (Daily): Since early Oct highs (4,700–4,750), ETH has been in a broad downtrend with a series of lower highs and lower lows. After the Nov 3–4 breakdown to the 3,060–3,300 area and a late-Nov retest of 2,627 (Nov 21 low), price rebounded into Dec 9–10 highs (3,321–3,326) and then rolled over again. The decisive loss of 3,000–3,040 (Dec 11–12) flipped that zone into supply and re-established the downtrend. Current price 2,833 is back at the late-Nov demand shelf (2,760–2,835), a critical area where buyers previously defended but where repeated tests increase failure risk.
• Intermediate structure: The most recent swing is a fast drop from 3,325 (Dec 10) to 2,779 (Dec 18 intraday), followed by a sharp but faded bounce. The bounce topped almost precisely at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (~2,988) of that downswing, then was rejected hard—textbook bearish continuation behavior.
• Intraday (Hourly): Today printed a classic liquidity run: a vertical push 13:00–15:00 UTC to 2,971–2,993 was sold aggressively, leading to a swift markdown to 2,779 by 19:00. Subsequent rebounce to ~2,828–2,860 has lacked follow-through, with lower highs forming and supply visible 2,895–2,915 and again 2,945–2,995.

2. Key levels (confluence)

• Resistance/supply: 2,895–2,915 (hourly supply formed post-dump); 2,945–2,995 (rounded to 3,000 psych, also 38.2% retrace from 3,325→2,779 at ~2,988); 3,025–3,040 (former support turned supply); 3,120–3,160 (daily breakdown area/MA cluster).
• Support/demand: 2,830–2,835 (closing shelf: Nov 20 and Dec 17/18 closes ~2,831–2,833); 2,775–2,790 (intraday pivot and breadth of late-Nov base); 2,704–2,720 (Nov 22/15 lows); 2,627 (Nov 21 capitulation low).

3. Moving averages (trend filters)

• 20D SMA (est.): ~3,055. Price is ~7.3% below, riding the lower half of its 20D Bollinger channel—bearish.
• 50D SMA (approx.): mid-3,300s. Price is well below—bear trend intact.
• 200D SMA (approx.): high-3,700s to low-3,800s. Deeply sub-200D—macro still risk-off.
• Slope/stack: 20D < 50D < 200D and all sloping down. Any pop into 2,990–3,050 runs into stacked dynamic resistance—favors selling rallies.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (est.): ~39. Bearish but not oversold (<30). Leaves room for further downside before a reflexive mean-reversion becomes statistically likely.
• Hourly RSI: Dipped oversold on the 2,779 print, bounced to mid-40s/low-50s on the rebound—no bullish divergence of note between the 19:00 low and subsequent lows; momentum remains fragile.
• Stochastics (intraday): Reset from oversold to neutral on the bounce, but rolling under midline—consistent with a weak bounce inside a downtrend.

5. MACD

• Daily MACD: Below zero with a widening negative histogram post-Dec 10 rollover—bearish momentum regime. No bullish cross evident.
• Hourly MACD: The bounce created a small histogram uptick that is already flattening; signal line remains beneath zero—rallies are suspect.

6. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Daily: Price has migrated along the lower band since Dec 11–12. Lower band (est.) near 2,750–2,780; mid-band ~3,055. Today’s intraday rejection near the lower half of the channel indicates sellers in control; proximity to the lower band does imply bounce risk, but repeated tags in a downtrend often precede band walks rather than clean reversions.

7. Ichimoku (Daily)

• Price below cloud; Kumo ahead is thick and descending (3,100–3,300).
• Tenkan < Kijun, price below both—bearish.
• Chikou span below price and below cloud—trend confirmation. Any rallies into the Kijun/Tenkan cluster (~3,000–3,100) face heavy headwinds.

8. Fibonacci mapping (precision)

• Swing 3,325 (Dec 10 high) → 2,779 (Dec 18 low):
  • 38.2% = 2,988 (intraday high 2,993—perfect hit and rejection).
  • 50% = 3,052 (aligns with 20D SMA ~3,055 and prior pivot).
  • 61.8% = 3,117 (within Ichimoku cloud/MA resistance). Confluence argues for selling rallies into 2,988–3,052.
• From the broader Nov 21 low 2,627 → Dec 10 high 3,325:
  • 61.8% retrace = ~2,900. This level broke and is acting as resistance now—bearish shift in control.

9. Volume, VWAP, and profile

• Distribution tells: The large-volume spikes align with down candles (Oct 10, Nov 3–4, today’s selloff), characteristic of supply dominance.
• Today’s session VWAP (intraday): Price is trading below session VWAP post-dump, with rallies stalling beneath—a common bearish intraday setup.
• Volume profile (recent weeks): High-volume node around 3,000–3,050 (now overhead resistance); a thinner pocket 2,885–2,915 where price can move quickly but fails to hold; another node 2,760–2,820 (support magnet). Expect mean reversion inside 2,760–2,915 until a decisive break.

10. Volatility and risk parameters

• Daily ATR (est.): ~180–220. A 1x ATR move from 2,900 targets ~2,700–2,720; from 2,830 targets ~2,650–2,660. Within 24h, a 0.5–1.0x ATR extension is plausible given recent ranges.
• Implication: Position sizing and stops must respect ~$200 swings; placing stops just above 3,000 (psych + 38.2% fib) offers a clean invalidation for shorts while capturing a favorable R:R toward 2,760–2,720.

11. Candlesticks and intraday tape

• The 13:00–15:00 UTC impulse up left long upper wicks into 2,971–2,993 and was followed by a wide-range bearish candle to 2,779—classic upthrust/UTAD behavior (Wyckoff) at the 38.2% fib. Subsequent small-bodied candles under prior supply reflect absorption by sellers rather than aggressive dip-buying.

12. Wyckoff/Market structure lens

• Distribution at ~3,000: The upthrust above the intraday consolidation then swift rejection suggests a completed distribution on lower timeframe. The markdown phase is likely not finished; current action looks like a “secondary test” of broken support from below.

13. Regression/mean reversion

• Price Z-score vs 20D SMA is roughly -1.5 to -1.7—stretched but not extreme. In downtrends, such readings often see shallow bounces that fail under the mid-band, then further downside. Expect bounces to be sold until price can reclaim and hold above ~3,040.

14. Liquidity and sweep dynamics

• Liquidity was taken above intraday highs near ~2,970–2,990, then below ~2,800. With resting liquidity likely clustered at 2,760–2,775 and again near 2,720, the path of least resistance after a weak bounce is a sweep of 2,760s.

15. Synthesis

• Multiple tools align bearish: price below declining MAs and Ichimoku cloud, MACD negative, RSI sub-50, rejection at 38.2% retracement, and intraday VWAP rejections.
• Confluence resistance: 2,895–2,915 (hourly supply) and 2,988–3,052 (fib + MA + profile HVN).
• Support magnet: 2,775–2,790. Repeated tests usually weaken supports; a decisive hourly close below 2,775 opens 2,720 quickly.

16. Trade plan and risk management (for context)

• Strategy: Sell the bounce into 2,898–2,915 with a limit order; invalidation above 3,005–3,015 (above psych 3,000 and 38.2% fib rejection zone).
• Targeting: First take-profit 2,765–2,780; stretch 2,720 if momentum continues.
• R:R illustration (not part of the output fields): Entry 2,898, stop 3,008 (−110), TP 2,768 (+130) → R:R ~1.18; better if entry tags 2,910–2,915 or if TP2 at 2,720 is reached (R:R ~1.62+).

17. 24-hour path expectation

• Base case (60%): Range-bound drift under 2,900 followed by a fade to 2,780; risk-off close near the lower third of the daily range.
• Bear extension (25%): Early bounce to ~2,905–2,930 fails fast; breakdown through 2,775 leads to a 2,720 print.
• Bull surprise (15%): Strong reclaim of 2,915 and an hourly close above 2,965 squeezes toward 2,995–3,040; daily still likely rejects near 3,040 absent new catalysts.

Conclusion

• The weight of evidence supports selling strength into 2,895–2,915 with targets back to the 2,760s. Trend, momentum, and overhead confluence argue that rallies are opportunities to position short with invalidation above 3,000–3,015.