ETH coils under 3,000: Dip-buy setup targets 3,055–3,084 within 24 hours

Executive Summary

• Direction next 24h: Bullish continuation with potential tests of 3,000, 3,036–3,055, and a stretch to 3,078–3,090.
• Bias: Buy dips toward 2,955–2,965 within the current intraday uptrend.
• Key invalidation: Sustained move back below 2,920 would weaken the setup; below 2,885–2,900 turns it neutral/negative; below 2,830 flips bias bearish.

1. Multi-timeframe Structure and Trend

• Higher time frame (Daily): ETH has been in a broad corrective downtrend since late September highs (~4,6k to 3,0k now). After the November 21 capitulation low (2,626.87 intraday), price rallied to a December 10 high (3,446.62), then retraced into December 17–18 lows (~2,777–2,831). The last two sessions show a rebound, printing a large green day today from ~2,827 to ~2,980 at the time of analysis, indicative of short-covering and bottom-fishing flows.
• Intermediate term: The December 10 peak to December 18 trough retraced roughly 78.6% of the Nov 21–Dec 10 advance and then found strong demand at a multi-touch base (2,802–2,831). That’s a classic deep fib pullback into a prior high-volume node that often precedes a tradable bounce.
• Intraday (hourly): Clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows today. The impulsive push from ~2,812 to ~3,013 around 03:00–15:00 UTC, followed by a shallow consolidation above ~2,945–2,965, shows buyers in control with pullbacks being bought. We are now coiling just below the 3,000 round number.

2. Key Levels and Market Profile Cues

• Support: 2,830 (triple-bottom shelf), 2,885–2,900 (micro shelf), 2,920 (intraday pivot), 2,945–2,965 (current value area support), 2,905–2,920 (gap/micro-balance retest).
• Resistance: 3,000 psychological; 3,013 (today’s intraday high); 3,032–3,055 (cluster of prior closes and the 20-day mean reversion band); 3,083–3,095 (classic pivot R2 area and late-Nov swing supply); 3,125/3,178 (Dec 8 swing); 3,212 (Dec 3 swing); 3,321–3,325 (Dec 9–10 supply).
• Volume/participation: Heavy turnover on the early-UTC impulse (03:00–07:00), confirming initiative buying; subsequent sideways trade on lighter volume = constructive bull flag behavior.

3. Momentum, Mean Reversion, and Volatility

• RSI(14, daily): Directionally rebounding from the mid-30s to low-40s zone after being near oversold. Plenty of headroom before overbought; momentum supports further upside follow-through.
• MACD (daily): Below zero but histogram is contracting (less negative). Early bullish inflection typically precedes a signal-line cross within a few sessions; near-term price can rise even before a full daily MACD cross.
• Stochastics (daily): Recovering from oversold; early-cycle upturn often fuels a 1–3 day bounce.
• 20-day SMA: Approx ~3,054. Price is below but advancing toward it; mean reversion magnet suggests a test of 3,036–3,055 in the next 24h if momentum persists.
• 50-day SMA: Likely above current price (~3,2k–3,3k). The medium-term trend remains corrective, but near-term bounce can travel to the 20-day before reassessing.
• ATR(14, daily) estimate: ~170–200. Today’s progression fits a 2–3% day. A 24h move from ~2,980 toward ~3,080–3,100 is within typical volatility.

4. Fibonacci and Pivot Studies

• Major swing fibs (Nov 21 low 2,626.87 to Dec 10 high 3,446.62):
  • 61.8% retracement: ~2,939 — already reclaimed; that tilts odds toward testing the 50% zone (~3,037) next.
  • 50% retracement: ~3,036.5 — aligns with 20-day SMA magnet; primary target area.
• Intraday fibs (Dec 19 low 2,811.69 to high 3,013.08):
  • 38.2%: ~2,936.95; 50%: ~2,912; 61.8%: ~2,887 — pullbacks thus far have held above 2,945–2,965, showing strong dip buying above the 38.2% level.
• Classic daily Pivots (using Dec 18 data: H 2,994.55, L 2,777.12, C 2,827.07):
  • P: ~2,866.25; R1: ~2,955.38; R2: ~3,083.68; S1: ~2,737.95.
  • Today already cleared R1 decisively; R2 ~3,084 is the natural extension target in trend days.

5. Pattern Recognition and Price Action

• Triple-bottom base: 2,802–2,831 zone was tested multiple times (Dec 17–18), each time attracting demand; today’s strong green candle suggests a potential local bottom.
• Bullish day structure: Expansive range green day opening near the lows and holding gains throughout the session often leads to a second-day continuation into nearby resistance (3,000/3,036–3,055).
• Micro bull flag: Post-break pullback held shallow above ~2,945–2,965, which is constructive.

6. Ichimoku Snapshot (qualitative)

• Price below daily cloud and Kijun likely near low 3,1ks; Tenkan turning up. Early stage recovery; typical path is a test of Kijun/20-day area first. That points to the 3,030–3,100 band.

7. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Mid-band ~20SMA at ~3,054 remains above price; lower band likely in mid-2,6s–2,7s. Reversion toward the mid-band supports a 3,030–3,060 objective.

8. VWAP and Intraday Structure

• Today’s session VWAP is in the 2,95x–2,96x zone. Price holding above VWAP into the close is bullish. Dips to VWAP typically get bought on trend days; ideal dip-buy zone sits ~2,955–2,965.

9. Risk Management and Scenario Planning

• Base case (60%): Buy-the-dip trend continuation. Entry in the 2,955–2,965 band, target 3,055 first, stretch 3,084. Time window: next 24 hours.
• Momentum extension (25%): Clean 3,000/3,013 breakout leads to quick tag of 3,036–3,055 then a push toward 3,078–3,090 (pivot R2 cluster).
• Bearish alternative (15%): Failure to hold 2,920 leads to a fuller retrace into 2,887–2,900 or even 2,830; below 2,830 invalidates the bounce and reopens 2,777–2,800.
• Suggested stop (not a hard requirement here, but prudent): 2,920 (below the intraday pivot shelf). Conservative traders can use 2,905; structural invalidation under 2,885–2,900, with complete thesis failure below 2,830.
• Position sizing: Because daily trend is still below the 50-day and macro is corrective, size moderately and lean on a tight stop; add on confirmed 3,013 breakout if momentum expands.

10. Synthesis and Call

• Confluence: reclaimed 61.8% retrace (2,939), pivot R1 cleared (2,955), intraday higher lows, RSI/MACD inflecting upward, and 20-day SMA/50% retrace magnet near 3,036–3,055. All align for a tactical long toward 3,055–3,084 in the next 24 hours, barring a breakdown back below ~2,920.
• Therefore: Prefer Buy (Long) via a limit on a shallow pullback into 2,955–2,965, targeting a take-profit near the R2/20-day confluence band.

Trade Plan (tactical)

• Entry (limit): 2,965 (within the 2,955–2,965 support band; offers favorable risk/reward vs 2,920 stop reference).
• Take profit: 3,084 (Pivot R2 confluence, just above the 20-day SMA magnet area; leaves room for slippage and front-running).
• Notional risk/reward: Risk ~45 (2,965 to 2,920). Reward ~119 (2,965 to 3,084). R:R ≈ 2.6:1. If entry slips and fills closer to 2,960, R:R improves marginally.
• Alternative trigger: Momentum buy on 3,013 breakout toward 3,055–3,084; use a tighter stop back inside 2,980.

Bottom Line

• Bias is long for the next 24 hours. Expect a test of 3,000 and a move into 3,036–3,055 with potential extension to ~3,084 if momentum persists. Watch 2,920 as the intraday invalidation line.