ETH: Sell the Rip Into 3,004–3,015 — Bearish Rejection Zone Eyes a Slide Back to 2,912

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish to range-bound, favoring sell-the-rip.
• Expected range next 24h: $2,890 – $3,020 with downside skew toward $2,905–$2,915; tail risk stretch to $2,860 if momentum accelerates. Upside risk cap $3,035–$3,065.
• Optimal tactic: Short into strength near $3,004–$3,015 (confluence of intraday Fib 78.6%, daily pivot P, micro supply), target a fade back toward $2,912 (near S2/S1 cluster and today’s responsive bid zone). Invalidation on sustained reclaim >$3,040–$3,065.

Step-by-step analysis

1. Price structure and trend context (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: Lower highs since the Dec 10 peak (intraday high ~3,446; close ~3,325). Sequence: 3,237 (Dec 11) → 3,125–3,134 (Dec 8/Dec 4) → 3,084 (Dec 12) → 3,006 (Dec 22). Lows stair-stepping: 2,964 (Dec 15/16) → 2,827 (Dec 18) → bounce to 3,006 (Dec 22) → today ~2,909–3,030 range. Net: Downtrend intact with a weak bounce failing below key moving averages.
• 4H/1H structure (today): Wide intraday range 2,909–3,030. After a sharp AM dip to 2,909, price has carved higher intraday lows (2,918 → 2,931 → 2,960), but each approach into 2,983–3,015 is offered. This is classic bear-market intraday grind-up into supply.
• Channeling: Since Dec 10, price oscillates within a descending channel; today’s recovery sits into the mid-line, with upper channel supply aligning near 3,015–3,035.

2. Moving averages and momentum ribbon

• 5D SMA ≈ 2,958 (calc from last 5 closes). 10D SMA ≈ 2,973. 20D SMA ≈ 3,064. Relationship: 5D < 10D < 20D and price ≈ 2,962 below 10D/20D → bearish alignment.
• 50D SMA (est) ≈ 3,250–3,300 based on Nov/early Dec closes → well above. The MA stack slopes downward across short/medium frames. Conclusion: Rallies into 3,000–3,100 likely sold until a base forms above the 20D SMA.

3. RSI family, Stochastics, and momentum gauges

• Daily RSI(14) (est): low-40s (recent declines from 3,325 to 2,827, mild bounce to ~3,006). This is weak-bearish; not deeply oversold, leaving room for another leg down.
• 1H RSI has mean-reverted from sub-30 at the 2,909 low to mid-50s near 2,970–2,980, consistent with a relief pop approaching resistance. Stoch RSI on 1H/30m is rotating high, implying fading upside momentum as price nears 3,000.
• DMI/ADX (daily, est): ADX ~20–22 with -DI > +DI: trend present but not explosive; rallies into resistance are statistically more likely to stall than break.

4. MACD / signal

• Daily MACD remains below zero with a recent weak bull cross during the 2,827 → 3,006 bounce now stalling. On 1H, MACD is flattening near zero after a small positive phase; risk of crossing down if 2,995–3,015 fails.
• Implication: The impulse power favors a fade of strength rather than chasing upside.

5. Volatility and ranges (ATR/Keltner/Bollinger)

• Daily ATR(14) (est): ~140–160. Implies a typical session swing of 4.5–5.5%. From ~2,962, that maps to 2,820–3,100 as a plausible envelope; our narrower expectation accounts for holiday liquidity decay but keeps downside tail risk open.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Middle band ~SMA20 ≈ 3,064; lower band est ~2,840–2,860. Price trades in lower third, consistent with controlled bearishness without acute oversold stress.
• Keltner Channels: Price back inside the lower/mid band after the 2,827 flush; rallies toward the midline typically cap into 3,000–3,070 while downtrend persists.

6. Fibonacci and confluence zones

• Daily swing (Dec 10 high 3,446 to Dec 18 low 2,827): range 619. Key retraces from 2,827: 38.2% ≈ 3,064; 50% ≈ 3,136; 61.8% ≈ 3,209. The bounce never held above 3,064 (38.2%), a weak sign; failure under 3,064 keeps bears in control.
• Intraday (today) high-low 3,030 – 2,909 = 121. Retraces off the low: 61.8% ≈ 2,984; 78.6% ≈ 3,004. Price tagged 2,984 and 2,983–3,004 zone has repeatedly capped. This 3,004–3,015 pocket aligns with daily pivot resistance and prior supply → high-quality short entry area.

7. Pivot points (classic) using 12/22 H/L/C (H 3,073.35, L 2,965.18, C 3,006.07)

• P ≈ 3,014.87; R1 ≈ 3,064.56; S1 ≈ 2,956.39; R2 ≈ 3,123.04; S2 ≈ 2,906.70.
• Today’s price respected S2 (low 2,906–2,909), is orbiting under P (3,015) and far from R1 (3,065). This confirms the working intraday framework: sell below P, buy near S2 for scalps. For the next 24h, P ~3,015 is key tactical sell zone.

8. Volume, OBV, and market profile

• Daily volumes: Broadly heavier on down legs (Nov 3–Nov 21 cascade, Dec 10–Dec 18 slide) versus lighter on bounces. OBV trend (qualitative) has not reclaimed prior highs → distribution.
• Intraday today: Heavier prints on the morning sell to 2,909 and moderate participation on the recovery → responsive buyers, not impulsive trend buyers. The point of control for the last several sessions clusters around 2,995–3,005, implying heavy prior inventory there, now acting as supply.

9. VWAPs and anchored VWAPs

• Session VWAP (approx) sits near 2,960–2,965. Price is oscillating slightly above/below, indicating balance but no sustained initiative buying.
• Anchored VWAP from the Dec 18 low (~2,827) likely tracks ~2,975–2,985 given the bounce profile; rejection above that zone today aligns with mean reversion underperforming into supply.

10. Ichimoku (daily and 1H)

• Daily: Price below cloud; Tenkan (9) ~3,020–3,030, Kijun (26) ~3,100–3,120 (est). Chikou under price/cloud. This is a bearish state; rallies into Tenkan tend to fail while below Kijun/Cloud. Today’s 3,004–3,015 is exactly that Tenkan retest area.
• 1H: Cloud base ~2,965–2,980; span turns flat to slightly descending; price struggling to maintain above. A slip back below the cloud suggests rotation lower to 2,930–2,915.

11. Candlestick/price action tells

• Hourly: The 14:00 hammer off 2,909 triggered a reflex, but subsequent small-bodied candles into 2,983–3,004 with upper wicks signal supply absorption overhead. 21:00–22:00 candles showed hesitation below 2,980–2,990.
• Daily: After the bounce to 3,006 (Dec 22), today’s candle is a small-body doji-ish just under 3,000, implying indecision at lower highs, typically a continuation set-up lower in existing downtrends.

12. Elliott Wave mapping (tactical)

• From the Dec 10 high, a plausible 5-wave down: Wave 1 → 3,084; Wave 2 → ~3,117; Wave 3 → 2,827; Wave 4 → 3,006 (Dec 22 close); Wave 5 now under construction with today’s lower high under the Wave 4 peak. A typical Wave 5 objective retests the prior low zone (2,840–2,880) with possible truncation; for the next 24h, a first target near 2,912 is realistic with extension risk to ~2,880.

13. Donchian/KAMA/CCI/MFI checks

• Donchian 20D: High ~3,446, low ~2,827; price sits in the lower third → bearish bias until mid-band reclaim.
• CCI(20) daily likely in negative territory (est -50 to -100) → weak momentum regime.
• MFI(14) daily likely ~40–45 given volumes/prices → not oversold; additional downside room exists.

14. Wyckoff read

• The last week resembles a distributional bounce: automatic rally off 2,827 into prior resistance (3,000–3,065), followed by supply reasserting. Today’s failure below P and under Tenkan resembles an upthrust after distribution on intraday scales.

15. S/R map and actionable levels

• Supports: 2,956 (S1), 2,930, 2,912–2,906 (S2/low cluster), 2,860–2,845 (BB lower/prev demand), 2,827 (swing low). 2,906–2,915 is the first magnet if 3,000 sellers win.
• Resistances: 2,984–3,004 (Fib 61.8–78.6 intraday), 3,015 (daily P/Tenkan), 3,030–3,035 (hourly supply cap), 3,065 (R1/20D mid-band vicinity), 3,110–3,140 (50% retrace of the bigger downswing).

16. Probability-weighted outlook (next 24 hours)

• Base case (~55%): Chop below pivot with lower-highs, fade to 2,912–2,930. This corresponds to ongoing downtrend and intraday momentum rollover from overbought stoch.
• Bear extension (~25%): Momentum re-accelerates post NY afternoon/Asia open, drives 2,890–2,880, potential probe to 2,860 on stop runs.
• Bull surprise (~20%): Reclaim and hold above 3,015; squeeze toward 3,035–3,065 (R1). Sustained closes >3,065 would challenge our short bias and open 3,110–3,140, but odds are lower absent new catalysts.

17. Trade plan synthesis

• Edge: Short rallies into 3,004–3,015 where multiple frameworks align (intraday 78.6% Fib, daily pivot P, Ichimoku Tenkan, prior volume POC).
• Entry: Sell limit around $3,004.
• Take profit: $2,912 (near S2/S1 overlap and today’s responsive bid zone, just above 2,906 low cluster to increase fill probability).
• Invalidation/stop (not an order here, but risk guide): Above $3,040–$3,065 (hourly supply and R1). A hard stop at ~$3,066 keeps R:R acceptable (~1:1.7 from 3,004→2,912 vs. 3,004→3,066).
• Alternative: If price fails to bounce to entry and breaks <2,930 first, aggressive momentum sellers can use a break/retest to target 2,906–2,890; however, the better expectancy is still to sell strength, not weakness, in this tape.

Conclusion

• The dominant daily downtrend, sub-20D SMA positioning, repeated intraday rejections at the 61.8–78.6% retrace and at the daily pivot, and lack of impulsive buy volume favor a tactically bearish stance for the next 24 hours. The highest-probability opportunity is to short into 3,004–3,015 with a target near 2,912, acknowledging a squeeze risk toward 3,035–3,065 if 3,015 is reclaimed and held.

Risk notes

• Crypto trades 24/7; liquidity can thin around holidays, increasing wick risk. Use limit entries and respect invalidation. The above is a tactical 24h view; reassess if BTC leads a broad risk-on impulse or if ETH-specific catalysts appear.