ETH at the Golden Pocket—Fade 2,950 Into 2,900 as Volatility Reawakens

Step 1 — Market regime and multi-timeframe trend

• Daily trend (Sep 30 → Dec 28): ETH topped near 4,755 (Oct 7) and has since carved a persistent series of lower highs and lower lows. The mid‑Nov liquidation break (Nov 4–21) set a major pivot low zone at 2,626–2,777, followed by a December recovery that stalled at 3,446 (Dec 10) and rolled over. Price now sits at 2,934.7, below key moving averages, signaling an intact medium‑term downtrend with a stabilization attempt in the 2,900–3,050 range.
• 4H/1H structure (latest intraday feed): The last 24 hours show a tight range compression with repeated rejections in 2,950–2,956 and absorption around 2,928–2,933. Notably, supply appeared on 18:00–19:00 with heavier prints pushing to 2,929 and quick rebounds that failed to reclaim 2,951. Micro-structure remains distributive under 2,955.

Step 2 — Key levels (support/resistance) from the dataset

• Immediate support: 2,928–2,933 (intraday shelf), then 2,900–2,910 (multi-touch shelf: Dec 25 low 2,891, Dec 26 low 2,894), then 2,830–2,835 (Dec 17 close 2,831, Dec 18 close 2,827). Deep support: 2,765–2,780 (Nov 21 close 2,766; Dec 18 low 2,777).
• Immediate resistance: 2,950–2,956 (intraday supply and repeated rejection), then 2,995–3,015 (psychological 3,000 + 20D mean area), then 3,030–3,075 (Dec 22 high 3,073; Dec 23 high 3,033). Higher resistance: 3,190–3,240 (Dec 3–11 zone), 3,325–3,446 (Dec 9–10 highs).

Step 3 — Moving averages and the mean

• 20D SMA ≈ 3,016 (approx., from the last 20 closes). Current price at 2,935 is below the 20D mean by ~81, so price is trading in the lower half of its recent distribution. With 50D/100D (implied) above price given the fall from 3,8xx → 2,9xx, the slope stack favors bears.
• Interpretation: Sub-mean trading with downward MA stack implies rallies into the mean are sell opportunities unless reclaimed with volume.

Step 4 — Bollinger Bands, volatility, ATR

• 20D middle band ≈ 3,016. Given recent high/low dispersion (3,446 → 2,777), the 20D BBs are relatively wide; price is camped below the mid-band, typical of bear-control regimes. The last several sessions show intraday volatility compression (hourly range mostly 2,928–2,956), a prelude to expansion. In regimes where price is below the BB mid-band and MAs slope down, breakouts skew lower.
• ATR(14) daily (approx.): ~120–160 based on recent daily ranges. A 24h move of +/-100–160 is likely; with the current micro-range compressed, a release to the 2,890s or a push to the 2,990s is within statistical expectation.

Step 5 — Momentum (RSI/MACD/Stoch)

• RSI(14) daily (qualitative): After a mid-Dec selloff to ~2,827–2,831, RSI likely recovered from sub-40 into the mid-40s. That’s below neutral 50, consistent with weak trend/momentum and favoring downside follow-through on failed bounces.
• MACD daily (qualitative): Below zero with a flattening histogram through late Dec as price goes sideways under the 20D mean. This is a classic bear consolidation setup—momentum negative, volatility compressing under resistance.
• Stochastic (qualitative): Oscillating in mid-zone; no decisive cross above momentum thresholds. Without a shift above 2,975–3,015, oscillators tend to roll over quickly.

Step 6 — Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below the Kijun (est. ~3,030) and beneath the cloud. Tenkan likely near 2,940–2,960. Trading below Kijun with a flat-to-falling Kumo forward bias keeps the tactical bias short unless price closes above Kijun with expanding volume.

Step 7 — Fibonacci context

• From Dec 10 high (3,446) to Dec 18 low (2,777): 38.2% retrace = ~3,033; 50% = ~3,112; 61.8% = ~3,190. Price failed repeatedly under 3,033–3,075, confirming the 38.2% retrace as a ceiling—weak rebound characteristics.
• From Nov 21 swing low (2,627) to Dec 10 high (3,446): 61.8% retrace ≈ 2,939. Price is oscillating directly at this “golden pocket” support. This explains the stickiness near 2,930–2,950: it’s a decision zone. A clean intraday rejection at 2,950–2,956 next usually precedes a drift to 2,900–2,910, with risk of 2,830 if 2,890 breaks.

Step 8 — Market structure and pattern read

• Lower-highs sequence since Dec 10: 3,446 → 3,325 → 3,175/3,125 → 3,073/3,033 → ~3,009/3,001 → 2,948. The descending trendline caps today near 2,960–2,970.
• Horizontal structure: A visible range forms between 2,890 and 3,015. The Point of Control (qualitatively) is gravitating to 2,940–2,960 given the clustering of closes and intraday churn. Breaks from such value nodes tend to test the nearest shelf: 2,900 below; 3,000 above.
• Candles: Small-bodied, low-vol sessions the last 3–4 days around 2,90x–3,00x without a decisive thrust. Sellers defend spikes; buyers hold shelves. In a broader downtrend, that usually resolves lower unless buyers reclaim the 3,000/3,015 pivot.

Step 9 — Intraday order flow tells (from hourly feed)

• Rejections: 14:00–16:00 printed 2,951–2,956 highs with immediate fade. Subsequent hours failed to retest with strength, and the largest sell pressure showed up on 18:00–19:00, punching to 2,928–2,931.
• Micro supports: 2,928–2,933 repeatedly held, but rebounds are shallow. This is classic for a support under pressure—each bounce makes lower local highs.

Step 10 — Probabilistic path for the next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Range fade lower. Early/Asia hours re-tag 2,948–2,955, fail, then rotate down to 2,905–2,915. If 2,905 breaks on real flow, extension to 2,890–2,898 prints where responsive buyers sit.
• Bull case (30%): Squeeze through 2,956–2,965, pressing into 2,990–3,005. Without a daily close above ~3,015 (20D mean), odds favor another fade. Only strong acceptance above 3,030–3,075 would alter medium-term bias.
• Bear extension (15%): One-way pressure slices through 2,900 quickly, runs stops to 2,860–2,835, possibly 2,830 test. This tail risk grows if U.S. liquidity opens weak and BTC leads down.

Step 11 — Strategy synthesis

• Trend/momentum: Bearish below the 20D mean and below Kijun; MACD negative. Sell-the-rip is favored.
• Location: Price at the 61.8% retrace of the Nov→Dec rally (~2,939). Support is there, but supply overhead (2,950–2,956, then 2,995–3,015) keeps R:R better to fade bounces with tight risk.
• Volatility: Compressed; expansion likely. With the mean above and resistance nearby, downside expansion is the higher probability resolution unless 2,965–2,975 is reclaimed with force.

Trade plan (next 24h)

• Bias: Sell (Short) on a controlled bounce into resistance rather than chase breakdowns into the 2,920s.
• Entry (optimal): 2,948 (sell limit into the intraday supply band 2,950–2,956, aligning with repeated rejections). This exploits overhead liquidity and keeps stops tight.
• Take profit (24h target): 2,898 (first shelf above the 2,890–2,910 support cluster). If momentum is strong, trail for 2,875–2,865, but base plan books at 2,898 within the 24h window.
• Invalidation/stop (for risk control; not part of order schema but critical): 2,974–2,978 (above the day’s supply and just under the descending trendline continuation). That yields an initial R:R ~ 50:26 ≈ 1.9:1.
• Flip condition: If price accepts above 2,975 and especially above 3,015 on strong volume, the short thesis weakens; consider reversing to a tactical long towards 3,033–3,075.

Bottom line

• The confluence of: (i) sub‑mean trading, (ii) failed 38.2% retrace reclaim, (iii) MACD below zero, (iv) repeated intraday rejections at 2,95x, and (v) volatility compression under resistance, supports a short-on-bounce approach. Expect a 24h rotation to 2,90x; a decisive break of 2,900 could see 2,88x–2,86x. Reclaiming and holding above 2,975–3,015 would neutralize and potentially flip the bias.