Tradzar
Ethereum Price Analysis Powered by AI
ETH at a 3100 Pivot: Sell-the-Rally Setup After the 3300 Rejection
Market context (multi-timeframe)
1) Higher-timeframe structure (Daily)
- Major trend since mid-Oct: Clear transition from a distribution/top (peak area ~4200–4300 in Oct) into a sustained downtrend.
- Legs lower:
- Oct highs (~4250) → early Nov breakdown (~3600) → capitulation impulse to ~3060–3300.
- Nov–Dec: volatility contraction and range-building mostly 2800–3050, suggesting base formation, but still under prior breakdown levels.
- Recent swing (early Jan): Rally from ~2967 (Dec 31/Jan 1) to ~3303 (Jan 6 high) followed by a sharp pullback to ~3052 (Jan 8 low).
- This creates a lower high vs. Oct, consistent with a bear-market rally / corrective upswing.
Implication: Daily structure remains bearish-to-neutral, with price currently in a retest zone after failing to hold above ~3200–3300.
2) Intermediate structure (Daily last ~2 weeks)
- Swing high: 3303 (Jan 6)
- Swing low: 3052 (Jan 8)
- Current price: 3106.9
This is a classic pullback after a failed continuation: buyers pushed to 3300, but sellers forced a fast retrace.
Key horizontal levels (from the data)
- Resistance cluster: 3140–3175 (Jan 4 close ~3140; Jan 7 open ~3296 then selloff; Jan 8 high ~3180)
- Major resistance: 3225–3300 (Jan 5–6 highs)
- Pivot / current battle zone: 3100–3120
- Support: 3050–3060 (Jan 8 low ~3052)
- Deeper support: 3000–3025 (multiple Dec/Jan pivots)
Implication: Price is sitting in a decision node (3100–3120). The market has recently proven it can trade to 3050 quickly, so downside risk remains material.
Volatility & range analysis
3) True range / practical ATR inference
- Jan 8 daily range: 3179.9 – 3052.5 ≈ 127.4
- Jan 7 daily range: 3296.4 – 3126.6 ≈ 169.8
Even without a full ATR computation, the last 2 sessions suggest elevated daily volatility (~130–170 pts). For a 24h horizon, a realistic movement band is roughly ±120–160 from the current area.
Implication: Expect intraday swings; entries should be placed at levels (retests) rather than at market.
Momentum / oscillator-style read (price-action proxies)
4) Sequence of closes (daily)
- Jan 6 close: 3295.9
- Jan 7 close: 3166.8 (strong down day)
- Jan 8 close: 3104.4 (follow-through down)
- Jan 9 (partial) close/current: 3106.9 (stabilizing, but not reversing)
This is bearish short-term momentum: lower close sequence after a local top.
5) Hourly microstructure (last ~24h shown)
- Hourly action oscillates tightly around ~3105–3120, with repeated failures to extend above ~3130–3136.
- Notable spike: 01:00 hour high ~3136 and low ~3082 (wide wick), indicating liquidity sweep / rejection rather than clean breakout.
Implication: Short-term tape shows absorption/supply overhead near 3125–3136.
Trend tools (conceptual EMA/MA + market regime)
6) Moving-average regime (inferred)
- Given the decline from ~4200 to ~3100 and the choppy base near ~2900–3050, the 50D MA is likely above price and still sloping down or flattening.
- The early Jan push to 3300 likely tagged into a declining MA zone and rejected.
Implication: Environment favors selling rallies until price reclaims and holds above ~3200–3300.
Pattern & structure techniques
7) Fibonacci retracement (from Jan 6 high to Jan 8 low)
Using swing: High 3303 → Low 3052 (range 251)
- 38.2% retrace: 3052 + 0.382*251 ≈ 3148
- 50% retrace: 3052 + 0.5*251 ≈ 3177
- 61.8% retrace: 3052 + 0.618*251 ≈ 3207
Current price (~3107) is below 38.2%, meaning the bounce is weak so far.
Implication: A typical bearish continuation setup is to sell into 3148–3177 if price retests there and shows rejection.
8) Support/Resistance + “role reversal”
- The 3140–3180 area acted as support during parts of early Jan; after the breakdown it now behaves as resistance.
Implication: Favors short entries on a retest.
Volume (contextual)
- Daily volume in early Jan is elevated (20B+). Jan 7–8 remain high, consistent with a distribution / liquidation leg after the Jan 6 peak.
Implication: High-volume selloff after a local high often leads to either (a) continuation lower, or (b) a dead-cat bounce capped at resistance.
24-hour forecast (probabilistic)
Base case (higher probability): bearish drift / range-to-down
- Likely path: retest 3125–3150, rejection, then revisit 3050–3060.
- If 3050 breaks with momentum, next magnet becomes 3000–3025.
Alternate scenario (lower probability): bullish reclaim
- If ETH holds above 3100 and breaks/holds above 3175, the market could rotate toward 3205–3225.
- However, given the recent impulse down from 3300 and weak bounce, this appears less likely within 24h.
My bias for next 24h: Down / sell-the-rally, with choppy consolidation possible before continuation.
Trade plan (decision, entry, target)
Decision: Sell (Short Position)
Rationale: short-term momentum bearish after Jan 6 rejection; hourly shows repeated failure above 3130–3136; key fib/resistance zone 3148–3177 overhead.
Optimal open price (limit entry)
- Open (Sell) Price: 3155
- This sits near the 38.2% retracement (~3148) and inside the known resistance band (3140–3175), improving R:R vs shorting at 3107.
Take-profit / close price
- Close (Take Profit) Price: 3055
- Just above the recent swing low ~3052, where bounce buyers may defend.
(If price never retraces to 3155 and instead breaks below ~3090 then ~3050, the setup becomes “missed”—I would avoid chasing at market because the edge is on the retest.)