Ethereum Price Analysis Powered by AI

ETH Breakdown Below 2,95x Balance: Expect a Retest Bounce, Then Another Leg Down

Current price: 2,884.61
Last daily candle (so far, 2026-01-25): O 2,948.65 / H 2,954.17 / L 2,884.61 / C 2,884.61
Intraday impulse: sharp sell-off from the 2,950 area into the 2,880–2,890 area.

From early Jan highs (~3,39x on 01-14) ETH rolled over into a clear downswing:
- Lower high: 3,397 → 3,382 (approx) → failure to reclaim 3,3xx
- Lower low: 3,166 → 2,925 (01-20 low)
The last ~5 daily closes before today were consolidative around 2,95x–2,98x, but today broke that balance downward.
Key takeaway: Daily structure remains bearish / distribution-to-markdown unless price reclaims the broken balance area.

The hourly sequence on 01-25 shows:
- A tight range around 2,948–2,960 early,
- Then persistent lower highs and a volatility expansion down into 2,88x.
The 16:00 hour candle is the defining move: ~2,922 → low ~2,880.8 → close ~2,888, with very large volume relative to prior hours (capitulation-like burst).
Key takeaway: Short-term momentum is decisively bearish; any bounce is likely a mean-reversion pullback until proven otherwise.

2,930–2,940: intraday breakdown area (multiple hours pivoted here before the drop). Likely first supply on a bounce.
2,950–2,960: prior range ceiling and the day’s high area—stronger supply.
3,000–3,010: psychological + prior daily congestion (late Dec / early Jan). A “line in the sand” for bears.

2,880–2,890: current flush low region; immediate support.
2,860–2,870: next logical liquidity pocket below today’s low (round-number magnet + typical continuation depth).
2,820–2,835: aligns with late-2025 swing areas and could become the next downside target if selling persists.

(Computed qualitatively from the provided sequence; no external data used.)

The last impulse leg (hourly) is steep and one-directional → RSI likely pushed into oversold on the 1H.
Oversold does not mean bullish reversal; in downtrends it often precedes a dead-cat bounce into resistance.

Daily price is below the recent mid-band equilibrium (~late Dec/early Jan around 3,0xx). The slope since 01-14 suggests a bearish MA stack (short MAs rolling under longer ones).
Hourly: price is meaningfully below the pre-drop range; any return to 2,93x–2,95x likely meets MA/VWAP-type dynamic resistance.

The sharp 01-20 drop and today’s continuation imply negative momentum regime (histogram negative, signal below zero), supporting further downside risk over the next day.

The daily ranges recently expanded (01-19 to 01-21 especially), and today’s intraday move adds another volatility expansion.
Expansion after consolidation (the 2,95x–2,98x chop) often leads to follow-through rather than immediate full recovery.
Implication for next 24h: expect wider candles, faster swings, and higher probability of stop-runs above minor resistances before continuation.

The 16:00 hourly candle volume is exceptionally large versus previous hours, consistent with either:
1. Capitulation (near-term low forms), or
2. Breakdown confirmation (institutions distributing into bids, then price continues lower after a small bounce).
Given the broader daily downtrend from 3,39x and the failure to reclaim 3,0xx recently, the higher-probability path is:
- Bounce → sell into resistance → continuation test of lower supports.

The market spent several days rotating around ~2,95x–2,98x (balance).
Today broke below that balance and accelerated.
Classic auction-market behavior after a breakdown:
1. Initial drive down (today),
2. Return-to-value test (pullback toward 2,93x–2,95x),
3. Either acceptance back into balance (bullish recovery) or rejection (bearish continuation).
With current momentum, rejection is more likely within the next 24 hours.

First: a reflex bounce toward 2,930–2,940 (short-covering + dip-buying).
Then: sellers defend that zone; price rotates lower.
24h target region: 2,860–2,870 with risk of a deeper wick into 2,82x–2,84x if broader risk-off persists.

If 2,880 holds firmly and price reclaims 2,950–2,960 quickly, the market could revert back toward 2,990–3,010.
This requires strong acceptance above 2,95x, which the current tape does not yet show.

Net bias: downside remains favored for the next 24 hours.

Rationale: daily downtrend, breakdown from multi-day balance, momentum expansion down, likely pullback sell opportunity.

Prefer to short on a pullback into resistance rather than chasing lows.
Open Price: 2,936.0 (inside the 2,930–2,940 breakdown/retest zone).
- This area is statistically where failed bounces often stall after an impulse drop.

Close Price: 2,868.0
- This targets the next support pocket beneath 2,880 and captures the expected continuation leg without requiring a full panic extension.

(Risk note: If price accepts above ~2,960 on strong continuation, the short thesis weakens; consider invalidation above that zone in practice.)