EthereumPoW Price Analysis Powered by AI

EthereumPoW (ETHW) Faces Breakdown Risk: Will $1.70 Hold or Open the Floodgates?

Macro Structure:

From late February through April 2025, ETHW was in a broader consolidation, generally contained between $1.20–$1.45 after a sharp correction through March.
A major volatility event occurred on April 26, with a massive breakout spike from ~$1.43 to a high of $2.18 (a near-50% upside move in one day), driven by a surge in volume (~75M, compared to prior days ~10M). Such sudden expansion typically resets the price range and attracts both momentum traders and profit-takers.

Post-Spike Action:

Price failed to hold above $2.00, triggering a series of lower highs and choppy action, now respecting a loose range from ~$1.65 to $1.95, with several failed attempts to reclaim $2.00 (notably on May 10 and May 11).
Over the last 10 sessions, we see a sequence of lower highs and lower lows; the overall tone has shifted from bullish to neutral-bearish after the spike euphoria faded.
Most recent closes (May 20-24) hover just above $1.70, struggling to maintain bid above this key support.

Short-term Trend (1-hour):

Looking at the 1h candles for May 23-24, price has been in a gentle downtrend from the $1.75–$1.77 region, grinding down toward the current price at $1.7037. No meaningful attempts at higher highs; bounces are shallow and quickly sold.

—

Volume on the daily chart spiked enormously at the end of April and first half of May, then dropped off to near-baseline for this asset.
The most recent trading day (May 24) saw a 24-hour volume of ~12.7M, a moderate spike from the last few sessions, suggesting some renewed activity.
Intraday (hourly) volume shows below-average participation; the last major push higher was not confirmed by expanding volume.

Volume does not indicate aggressive accumulation or a reversal at current levels—likely distribution or waiting for a new catalyst.

—

Major Resistance: $1.75 (recent swing high, multiple intraday rejections at 1.77)
Secondary Resistance: $1.85–$1.95 (prior distribution range)
Major Support: $1.68–$1.70 (price is resting here now—violation exposes downside to $1.65 and then $1.55)

—

Short-term EMA/SMA (e.g., 10–20): Both are curling down and about to cross under the 50-period. The current price is below all short-term moving averages: a short-term bearish signal.
RSI (14): Recent daily RSI estimated at ~42 (below the midpoint, but above oversold), confirming mild bearish momentum.
MACD: Histogram negative; signal and main lines are diverging, with no bullish crossover attempt in sight. Bearish momentum persists.

—

Volatility is elevated vs April's baseline, but the last 48 hours show compression, as the range narrows with each session—often a prelude to a new breakout move.
No bullish reversal candles: Most recent closes are either indecision dojis, weak hammers, or clear bearish candles.
Price cannot reclaim the $1.72–$1.73 area on any bounce—it is acting as new resistance. This is often typical as a downtrend approaches a local breakdown point.
No classical reversal patterns (no double bottom, no bullish engulfing, no falling wedge break visible in the short-term sequence).

—

Drawing Fibs from the April breakout low ($1.20) to the May high ($2.26):
- 38.2% level: $1.73 (was recent support, now being lost)
- 50% retrace: $1.73–$1.74 (again, previously support, now resistance)
- 61.8% level: $1.59–$1.60 (next major target if breakdown continues)

A loss of $1.70 convincingly opens the door to $1.60–$1.62 as the next downside magnet.

—

No signs of major spot buying, little absorption of sell pressure in the order books (from recent volumes). Microstructure is skewed toward offers, not bids.
News flow quiet; no immediate external driver for a rebound.
As ETHW is a low-to-mid cap altcoin, sell pressure can cascade quickly in the absence of buyers.

—

The initial post-breakout euphoria has entirely faded; distribution has played out. Recent price action is heavy, with technicals, momentum, and volume all pointing down.
$1.70–$1.72 now acts as resistance. The market has failed to stage a convincing rebound. If $1.70 is cleanly lost over the coming sessions (especially with an hourly close < $1.70), it likely triggers a further drop to $1.62–$1.60.
Upside scenario: Only surprises would be a quick momentum grab reclaiming $1.75 and holding for hours, which current data does not support.

70%: Price trades lower, tests $1.65, possible extension to $1.62 (major Fib/volume node)
20%: Rangebound between $1.70–$1.77
10%: Sharp reversal reclaiming $1.80+, low probability given all signals

Opening a short (Sell) below $1.70, ideally on confirmation with a break of $1.70 and minor bounce up to $1.71–$1.72 for optimal entry, targeting the next liquidity zone at $1.62–$1.65, is statistically favored.
Risk: If price reclaims and sustains above $1.75 for 4+ hours, cut/flip bias.