ETHW: Sell the Rally into $1.04–$1.06 — Aiming for a Sub-$1.00 Liquidity Sweep

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for ETHW (EthereumPoW)

Timeframe focus: Daily trend with intraday (hourly) timing. Current price: $1.01876 (near 20:00 UTC, 2025-10-15).

1. Price action and market structure

• Regime shift: A strong downtrend started after the Oct 1–3 local highs (~$1.50). A capitulation/flash-crash on Oct 10 (low ~$0.609, close ~$0.903) changed volatility dynamics. The subsequent rebound (Oct 11–13) to ~$1.12–1.15 formed a classic bear-flag retracement that broke lower on Oct 14–15.
• Lower highs and lower lows: Post-bounce, price printed a lower high at ~$1.127 (10/14 H ~$1.1273 vs 10/13 H ~$1.1482) and continued lower today. Structure is decisively bearish into the current session.
• Intraday rhythm (hourly): Today’s H ~$1.0758 (08:00 UTC) was sold aggressively. Price has since stair-stepped down: rejection clusters around $1.055–1.06 and $1.03–1.04; fresh session low printed ~$1.014–1.015 around 15:00 UTC and we’re hovering just above $1.02.
• Key levels from the tape: • $1.12–1.15: post-crash rebound supply cap. • $1.056–1.06: daily pivot area and repeated intraday rejection zone. • $1.032–1.035: Fib 78.6% of the 0.609→1.148 rally; acted as pivot; now overhead resistance. • $1.00: psychological round-number support; likely liquidity pool. • $0.942: Fib 61.8% of 0.609→1.148; next substantive support if $1.00 breaks. • $0.88–0.90: prior post-crash acceptance and Oct 11 close; deeper support on extension.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• SMA5 ≈ $1.044 (using last 5 closes): Price <$1.044 → near-term pressure.
• SMA10 ≈ $1.177: Price far below → momentum down.
• SMA20 ≈ $1.298: Price ~21.5% below → strong bearish bias.
• SMA50 (approx) well above price (~$1.55–$1.60 given prior regime), confirming dominant downtrend.
• Read-through: Bearish alignment (price < 5 < 10 < 20 < 50) supports selling rallies rather than buying dips.

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): low-40s to high-30s after the crash bounce; not deeply oversold, leaving room for further downside before mean-reversion triggers. Hourly RSI hovering mid-30s to low-40s through the day with no strong bullish divergence at new intraday lows.
• MACD (12,26,9) daily: below zero with a weak histogram uptick during the 10/11–10/13 bounce; histogram has rolled back toward negative as of 10/14–10/15. On hourly, MACD is negative with shallow bounces—consistent with a trend day down / grind lower.
• Stochastics (intraday): oscillating in lower bands; bounces get sold near midline—momentum rallies failing.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~$0.15–$0.17 post-crash. Expected 24h move ≈ ±$0.08–$0.10 from spot under compressed conditions, but tails remain fat given recent behavior.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily (est.): mid-band ≈ $1.298; price riding lower half with frequent touches of lower band post-crash. Riding/lapping lower band suggests persistent selling pressure rather than clean mean-reversion.

5. Volume analytics

• Post-crash, volumes were very elevated (Oct 10 ~31M). Bounce days (Oct 11–13) had diminishing volume→classic bear-flag volume profile. Oct 14 maintained selling interest; today’s intraday volumes on upticks were tepid vs sell programs at resistance.
• OBV (qualitative): trend down since Oct 1–3 highs, failed to confirm bounce—distribution remains the base case.

6. VWAP and intraday execution levels

• Today’s price has tracked below intraday VWAP for most of the session; spikes toward $1.05–1.06 were faded. A mean-reversion tag to VWAP/20-EMA hourly is possible, but sellers likely defend $1.04–1.06.
• Tactically: prefer short entries on a rally into $1.04–1.06 zone (confluence of intraday EMA/VWAP, daily pivot, prior rejection).

7. Pivot points (Classic) using 10/14: H=1.1273, L=0.9939, C=1.0562

• Pivot P ≈ (H+L+C)/3 ≈ $1.0591
• R1 ≈ 2P − L ≈ $1.1243 (near the 10/13–10/14 supply)
• S1 ≈ 2P − H ≈ $0.9909 (just below psychological $1.00)
• S2 ≈ P − (H−L) ≈ $0.9257 (aligns with deeper support/Fib 61.8–50% cluster)
• Price is below P, between P and S1 → bearish intraday bias; base case is a probe of S1/$1.00, with risk of slip toward S2 on acceleration.

8. Fibonacci mapping (recent impulse)

• Swing low to high: 0.609 → 1.1482 (range = 0.5392) • 78.6%: 0.609 + 0.786*0.5392 ≈ $1.032 → breached today; now resistance. • 61.8%: ≈ $0.942 → next downside magnet if $1.00 fails. • 50%: ≈ $0.879 → deeper target if selling exacerbates.
• The break back below 78.6% implies the bounce is effectively retraced; probabilities skew to test 61.8% over the next 1–3 sessions, though the 24h window may only reach toward $0.98–$0.99 initially.

9. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price well below cloud; Tenkan below Kijun; Chikou below price and below cloud. Full bearish stack → trend-following signals favor shorts.

10. Candlestick/price pattern read

• Oct 10: capitulation long lower wick but weak close; often requires basing before durable reversals.
• Oct 11–13: three-day countertrend advance on declining volume (bear flag).
• Oct 14: bearish continuation; Oct 15 intraday lower high and selloff maintains the flag breakdown.

11. Elliott Wave (heuristic)

• Wave 3: capitulation to 0.609; Wave 4: corrective bounce to ~1.15; Wave 5 down developing: targets commonly probe/under-cut Wave 3 extremes on some symbols, but liquidity in ETHW suggests shallow extensions first (toward 0.98/0.95) before any larger test. Within 24h, a sub-wave continuation to test $1.00 then $0.98 is plausible.

12. Mean-reversion and Z-score

• Z (vs 20D mean): (Price − SMA20)/SD. With SMA20 ≈ 1.298 and an est. SD ≈ 0.18–0.20, Z ≈ −1.4 to −1.6. While that usually offers bounce risk, the presence of a strong downtrend and fresh lower highs reduces the reliability of countertrend longs. Better to sell bounces until Z approaches −2 with exhaustion signs.

13. Liquidity and round-number dynamics

• $1.00 is a high-visibility round number; expect stops/liquidity below. A quick liquidity sweep through $1.00 into $0.99–0.985 is likely if bids thin, with reflex bounces possible thereafter. For execution, aim to be short from higher ($1.04–1.06) and cover into the first flush near/under $1.00.

14. 24-hour outlook (scenarios)

• Base case (55%): Drift lower with one failed bounce. Range ~$1.04 high to ~$0.985–0.99 low. Close near $1.00–1.01.
• Bear extension (25%): Clean break of $1.00 triggers stops, accelerates to $0.96–0.95; intraday rebound to ~$0.99 into the close.
• Bull surprise (20%): Squeeze through $1.04–1.06 toward pivot $1.059–1.07; sellers reassert below $1.08. Sustained reclaim >$1.08 would be the first technical win for bulls, but odds are lower today.

15. Synthesis and trade plan

• Trend, momentum, volume, and structure all skew bearish. The confluence of resistance at $1.04–1.06 (intraday VWAP/EMA, daily pivot P ≈ $1.059, former support turned resistance, Fib 78.6% at $1.032 now overhead) provides an attractive area to initiate a short with favorable risk/reward.
• Targeting: The first objective is just ahead of $1.00 to capture the likely liquidity sweep without over-optimizing. A more ambitious extension exists to $0.96–0.95, but within the next 24h the $0.985–0.99 zone is a high-probability cover.
• Optional risk control (not requested but prudent): A protective stop above $1.062–1.067 (above pivot/early session rejection) keeps the R:R > 2:1 aiming for $0.985.

Conclusion: Sell the bounce into $1.045 (optimal entry) and cover near $0.985 within 24 hours, with potential to trail if momentum accelerates.