Fade the Rip: Short ETHW Into 0.98 Resistance as Redistribution Deepens

Instrument: EthereumPoW (ETHW) | Quote currency: $ | Current price: 0.9659 Timeframe coverage: Daily trend (last ~90 days), sub-daily (4H/1H) with the provided intraday feed up to 2025-10-23 07:40 UTC.

Executive summary and 24h view

• Structural context: ETHW is in a sustained daily downtrend since late August. A capitulation-type selloff on 2025-10-10 (intraday low ≈ 0.609, close ≈ 0.903) broke the multi-month structure. Since then, price has been ranging in a redistribution box between roughly 0.92–1.02 with a sequence of lower highs. The bounce to 1.12 (10/13) was sold aggressively; subsequent highs at 1.056 (10/14) and ~1.00 (10/19–20) keep the descending high structure intact.
• Near-term bias (next 24h): Mildly bearish-to-range. Expect a test of resistance around 0.98–1.00, with higher probability of rejection back toward 0.95 and potentially 0.94–0.92 if risk weakens. Base case: tag R1/past supply near 0.982 then rotate lower to the pivot/PP area 0.952–0.955.
• Trade stance: Favor fading into strength (short on a pop). Optimal short entry clusters near classic R1 (≈0.982) and 5D SMA (~0.982) with take-profit into the 0.95 area.

Step-by-step technical analysis

1. Price action and market structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily: Clear lower-high sequence from 1.86 (mid-Aug) → 1.45 (10/01) → 1.12 (10/13) → 1.06 (10/14) → ~1.00 (10/19–20). Lows stepped down from ~1.30s to 0.90s. After the 10/10 break, price failed to reclaim 1.06/1.12 and is compressing below 1.00. This is classic redistribution after markdown.
• 4H/1H: Post-10/22 dip to 0.921, price rebounded to ~0.97; the last several hours show a modest upward drift but with waning momentum and repeated failures near 0.97–0.98. The structure resembles a bear flag / rising wedge inside the broader 0.92–1.02 range.
• Intraday liquidity cues: 10/22 printed a sharp sweep to 0.921 (stops grabbed) and reclaimed to the mid-0.95s; however, supply returned below 0.97–0.98. The inability to convert 0.98–1.00 into support keeps the path-of-least-resistance lower.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• 5D SMA ≈ 0.982 (computed from 10/18–10/22 closes: 0.9879, 1.0028, 0.9984, 0.9684, 0.9524). Price (0.966) is below the 5D SMA: immediate-term headwind at ~0.982.
• 10D SMA ≈ 1.003 (10-day average of closes 10/13–10/22). Acts as a thicker resistance band near 1.00.
• 20D SMA: materially above price (post-crash smoothing; estimate >1.10–1.20), reinforcing the dominant daily downtrend.
• EMA8/EMA21 (daily, qualitative): EMA8 near ~1.00; EMA21 ~1.10–1.13. Price below both; rallies into EMA8/10D/round-number 1.00 repeatedly fail. Interpretation: Stacked MAs overhead create a dense resistance zone 0.98–1.03, aligning with a sell-the-rip setup.

3. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Daily BB (20,2) qualitative: Mid-band (SMA20) well above spot; lower band expanded during the crash. Price is trading in the lower half of the envelope; mean-reversion pops toward 1.00 are likely to be sold until the mid-band is reclaimed.
• 1H BB: Upper band tested ~0.97–0.98 in the last sessions; taps on the upper band lacked follow-through, indicating buyer fatigue. Interpretation: Short-term bounces are likely capped by the 0.97–0.99 band; volatility contraction inside a broader bearish regime typically resolves with continuation lower unless a strong reclaim occurs.

4. Momentum oscillators (RSI, Stoch, MACD)

• Daily RSI: Post-10/10 crash, RSI bounced from oversold toward the mid-40s; recent roll-over is consistent with lower highs in price. Not oversold now; room to the downside.
• 1H RSI: Hovering around 50–55 with bearish divergences creeping in as price marginally made higher intraday highs near 0.97 while RSI failed to confirm.
• MACD daily: Deeply negative since the dump; histogram compression from 10/11–10/13 has faded; signal line remains below zero. On 4H/1H the MACD is near flat to slightly positive but losing slope around 0.97–0.98. Interpretation: Momentum supports selling strength rather than pressing longs into resistance.

5. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Volume profile: Climax sell volume on 10/10, then diminishing on the bounce, with renewed sell presence on 10/14 and 10/21–22. Dips to 0.92 saw supportive volume but not enough to pivot trend.
• OBV (qualitative): Lower highs post 1.12 top; no sustained accumulation signature. Interpretation: Supply appears at/above 0.98–1.00; demand shows up below 0.95 but has not reclaimed key resistance bands.

6. Market geometry: Support/Resistance, Pivots, and Levels

• Key supports: 0.92–0.95 (liquidity shelf; 10/22 S1 ≈ 0.922; repeated intraday reactions 0.945–0.952). Deeper supports: 0.90 (10/10 close), 0.88–0.85 (historic/fib zones).
• Key resistances: 0.98–1.00 (5D SMA, R1 pivot, psychological), 1.012 (R2), 1.056–1.06 (prior swing), 1.12 (post-crash swing high).
• Classic pivots using 10/22 H/L/C: PP ≈ 0.9518, R1 ≈ 0.9825, R2 ≈ 1.0125, S1 ≈ 0.9217, S2 ≈ 0.8911. Interpretation: Today’s price sits between PP and R1; R1 aligns with the optimal fade zone for shorts.

7. Fibonacci mapping (10/10 high-to-low)

• Using 10/10 H ≈ 1.4129, L ≈ 0.609: 38.2% ≈ 0.916, 50% ≈ 1.012, 61.8% ≈ 1.107. Observed behavior: Bounce reached and slightly exceeded 61.8% (1.123) then failed; price now oscillates between 38.2% and 50%. The 50% line (~1.012) acts as a magnet/resistance; failure to hold above tends to lead back toward 38.2% (~0.916).

8. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price below cloud; Tenkan near ~0.99, Kijun ~1.06; Chikou below price. Bearish configuration. Any rally into Tenkan (~0.99) tends to meet supply.
• 1H: Price around/just above Tenkan, below/near Kijun; thin forward cloud around 0.97–0.98 suggests a likely rejection unless momentum materially improves.

9. Anchored VWAP and VWAP behavior

• AVWAP from the 10/10 capitulation low or session start often sits around 0.99–1.00 in the days after; spot trades slightly below, indicating sellers hold cost advantage.
• Intraday standard VWAP on 10/23 sessions has acted as a pivot near mid-0.96; tests above VWAP have not expanded. Interpretation: Sub-VWAP closes skew probabilities to the short side on pops.

10. Pattern diagnostics: triangles/flags and Wyckoff lens

• Descending triangle: Lower highs (1.12 → 1.06 → 1.00) against a horizontal-ish base at 0.92–0.95. This pattern often breaks downward in a bear regime.
• Wyckoff: Post-markdown range is behaving like redistribution. 10/22 swing to 0.921 is a Sign of Weakness (SOW) with an AR to ~0.97–0.98; we look for a Last Point of Supply (LPSY) near 0.98–1.00, followed by drawdown to test the 0.92 shelf again.

11. ADX/trend strength (qualitative)

• ADX 14D would have spiked after 10/10 and is now likely easing. Trend remains down; momentum pauses enable fades at resistance.

12. Statistical context and ATR

• 14D ATR elevated by the crash, but recent realized intraday swings suggest ~5–7% daily range is typical now. A 0.982 → 0.948 move (~3.5%) is comfortably within a 24h session’s realized range.

13. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (≈55%): Pop toward 0.98–0.985 (R1/5D SMA) stalls; rotate back to 0.952–0.955; potential extension to 0.948 if momentum flips.
• Bull case (≈25%): Strong bid breaks and holds above 0.985–1.00; test 1.012 (R2/50% fib). Without volume expansion, sustained hold above 1.00 is less likely.
• Bear case (≈20%): Failure to lift further, roll from current 0.965; break below 0.952 PP and probe 0.94–0.93; extreme retest 0.92 if broader market weakens.

14. Strategy synthesis and execution plan

• Edge location: Shorting into 0.98–0.985 where multiple resistances converge (R1 pivot ≈0.9825, 5D SMA ≈0.982, round-number magnet, intraday upper BB proximity) offers favorable reward-to-risk toward 0.95–0.948.
• Entry: Sell limit ≈ 0.981–0.983 to catch a liquidity sweep into R1. If price spikes to 1.00–1.012, that’s the next supply shelf; but the primary plan is to get filled around R1.
• Exit (TP): Scale or single target around 0.948–0.952; selecting 0.948 captures the meat of a typical day’s downswing while staying above S1 magnet (0.922) and within normal ATR.
• Risk note: While stops aren’t requested, a prudent protective stop for this plan would sit above 1.012–1.016 (R2/50% fib) to avoid a trend-day squeeze.

Why Sell here?

• Confluence of resistance directly overhead (5D SMA, R1, round number, fib 50% just above) in a dominant daily downtrend.
• Momentum not confirming upside; volume on bounces lighter than on sell legs; Wyckoff read favors LPSY near 0.98–1.00.
• Pivot math and intraday behavior point to repeated failures 0.97–0.98 with mean-reversion back to PP.

Price prediction (next 24h)

• Likely path: 0.981–0.985 tag → rejection → drift to 0.955 → flush to ~0.948 if sellers press. Alternative upside extension: brief run to 1.00–1.012 before supply reasserts.