ETHW: Short the 0.90 LPSY — Bear Flag Points to 0.84 Within 24 Hours

Headline view: ETHW is in a maturing bear trend on the daily timeframe, consolidating beneath broken supports with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Intraday structure shows a weak bounce into a 0.898–0.904 supply pocket, fading quickly, with flows still favoring distribution. The next 24 hours favor a retest and likely probe below 0.875 toward 0.855–0.846, with upside limited to 0.905–0.925 unless a squeeze develops.

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily structure: After the Oct 10 capitulation (intraday low ~0.609, close ~0.903), ETHW rebounded to a swing high on Oct 13 (~1.148), then rolled into a sequence of LH/LL: 1.12 → ~1.06 → ~1.01 → 0.975 → 0.941 → 0.923 → 0.875. Current price 0.883 sits just above the recent low close (0.875), i.e., a precarious ledge.
• Intraday (hourly) structure 10/30–10/31: Price tested 0.903–0.904 twice (supply) and failed, with quick rejections to the high-0.88s/low-0.89s, then lower highs (0.898 → 0.899 → 0.886). Multiple 0.880–0.883 prints indicate short-term support is weakening (buyers present but not aggressive; repeated tests typically precede breaks in a downtrend).
• Micro range: 0.882–0.903 is the operative band; a breakdown of 0.882–0.875 opens 0.865/0.855 then 0.846 (20-day Donchian low and prior swing low).

2. Classical support/resistance and pivots

• Nearby resistance: 0.898–0.904 (today’s intraday supply); 0.925 (classical R1); 0.961 (38.2% retracement of 0.846→1.148 downswing fails), 0.976–1.00 (recent rejection zone and prior high-volume node).
• Nearby support: 0.882–0.875 (today’s shelf and yesterday’s daily close); 0.865; 0.855; 0.846 (10/30 low, 20-day channel floor); extension 0.835 (classical S1 from pivot math).
• Classical pivot (from 10/30 H/L/C: 0.936/0.846/0.875):
  • Pivot P ≈ 0.8859 (price oscillating around it)
  • R1 ≈ 0.9255; R2 ≈ 0.9760
  • S1 ≈ 0.8354; S2 ≈ 0.7958 Observation: Trading at/below P, under R1, with S1 materially below and aligned with bearish continuation.

3. Trend/Moving Averages

• SMA10 (approx) ≈ 0.95–0.96; EMA9 ≈ 0.94–0.95; SMA20 ≈ ~1.02; SMA50 ≈ ~1.45 (dragged up by August highs). Price 0.883 is below all short/medium MAs → bearish alignment.
• Slope check: EMA9 < SMA20 and both sloping down; classic downtrend confirmation. Any bounce into the EMA9/SMA10 zone has been sold.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (approx): high 30s to low 40s. Not deeply oversold; momentum remains negative with room to fall before classic capitulation signals (~<30) appear. That skews risk toward continuation rather than immediate reversal.
• Stochastic (daily): hovering near 30–40 and rolling over; intraday stochastic flipped down from ~70 near 0.903. Bearish short-term momentum tilt.
• MACD (daily): below zero with slightly negative histogram; weak downside impulse persists, no clear bullish crossover.

5. Volatility/Range analytics

• ATR: Post-shock contraction; daily ATR compressing around 0.04–0.06 after the Oct 10 spike. With price hugging lower bands, compression inside a downtrend often precedes another volatility expansion down. A 0.03–0.06 range day is typical; moves from 0.90 → 0.85 are within 1–1.5x ATR.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~SMA20 ≈ 1.02 above; lower band hugging ~0.88–0.89. Price has been walking the lower band (bearish). Mean-reversion bounces have been shallow and sold.
• Keltner Channels (20,1.5ATR): Price in/near lower envelope; lack of thrust back to mid-channel confirms weak buying pressure.

6. Volume/Flow

• Daily volume is heavier on red days and lighter on green days since 10/13, pointing to distribution.
• OBV (qualitative): Dropping since mid-Oct; no positive divergence.
• Volume profile (qualitative): High-volume node (HVN) around 0.95–1.00, low-volume pocket 0.90–0.85. Trading below the HVN tends to pull toward the next HVN; the LVN under 0.90 increases risk of a swift slide once 0.875 cracks.

7. Pattern recognition

• Bear flag structure: The sideways grind 0.88–0.90 after a leg down resembles a flag/pennant below prior support; statistically favors downside continuation.
• Candlesticks: Small-bodied candles at lows without bullish engulfing or hammer follow-through. Rejection wicks near 0.903 suggest supply absorption and seller dominance.
• Wyckoff lens: Post-bounce distribution → markdown. Today’s 0.90 failures resemble an LPSY (Last Point of Supply), often preceding another down-leg.

8. Ichimoku Cloud

• Price below Kumo; Tenkan below Kijun; Span A/B overhead; Chikou below price and cloud. Full bearish stack. Cloud ahead likely acts as dynamic resistance into the 0.95–1.00 zone if reached.

9. Donchian/Channel checks

• 20-day Donchian low ≈ 0.846; current price ~0.883 is only ~4% above. A fresh 20-day low print commonly accelerates momentum in trend direction; this is the next bear trigger level.

10. Fibonacci confluence

• From Oct 13 high (1.148) to Oct 30 low (0.846): 50% retrace ≈ 0.997, 38.2% ≈ 0.942. Price failed to reclaim both (multiple rejections in the 0.94–1.00 band), confirming the broader downtrend.
• From Oct 10 crash low (0.609) to Oct 13 high (1.148): 50% backtest ≈ 0.879; 61.8% ≈ 0.816. Current price straddles the 50% level; loss of 0.879 opens 0.816 as the next Fibonacci target path after 0.846.

11. DeMark/Exhaustion (qualitative)

• No clear TD9/13 exhaustion signature on daily; downside not yet technically exhausted.

12. Parabolic SAR

• Dots above price since mid-October; no flip. Continues to signal sell rallies.

13. Risk framing and scenarios (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55–60%): Rejection in 0.898–0.904; drift lower to 0.875; break leads to 0.855–0.846 test. Intraday range likely 0.86–0.90, with a late-session push to 0.85–0.86 if liquidity thins.
• Bullish alt case (25–35%): Quick stop-run above 0.905; test R1 0.925; stretched case 0.94. This likely fails without fresh volume/impulse and would still be a sell-the-rip area under the daily MAs.
• Tail risk (5–10%): Dislocation through 0.846 directly to ~0.835 (S1) or a flash-bounce to ~0.94; manage with stops.

14. Confluence summary

• Below all key MAs; price hugging lower Bollinger; OBV weak; bear flag under resistance; pivots place price below P and under R1; Donchian floor close; Wyckoff LPSY at ~0.90; Stoch rolling over; MACD below zero. The path of least resistance remains down.

Trade thesis: Short into 0.90 supply where risk/reward is best. Target the 0.84 handle where S1/structural shelf and pre-break liquidity likely gather. If 0.905–0.925 squeezes, reassess; otherwise, use that pop to position.

24-hour price prediction

• Expected range: 0.845–0.905
• Bias: Bearish drift; likely test and potential break of 0.875 with extension to 0.855–0.846 before any meaningful bounce.

Risk management notes (implementation guidance)

• Ideal entry: Limit sell 0.900 in the 0.898–0.904 supply band.
• Protective stop (not in fields, but recommended): 0.918–0.930 depending on tolerance and execution venue liquidity.
• Profit-taking: Primary TP 0.840; advanced scaling: partials 0.855/0.846, final 0.835 if momentum accelerates.
• Time stop: If not filled within 24h or if price closes above 0.905 with strong breadth, reassess.