ETHW’s Post-Capitulation Spring: Targeting a 50–62% Fib Snapback to 0.96

Executive summary and context

• Instrument: EthereumPoW (ETHW), quoted in USD
• Current price: 0.9018 (as of 2025-11-07 21:57 UTC)
• Recent path: Capitulation to 0.733 (Nov 4), intraday higher low at ~0.778 (Nov 7), impulsive recovery into 0.90–0.91 with expanding volume and sustained trade above intraday VWAP.
• 24h view: Momentum continuation favored toward 0.93–0.97 with pullbacks likely into 0.88–0.89. Primary risk: failure back below 0.875 returning price to 0.82–0.85 range.

Step-by-step, multi-tool technical analysis

1. Market structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure since mid-September: Lower highs and lower lows after a failed retest of the 1.60–1.70 range; decisive break on Oct 10 down to ~0.90, followed by a labored bounce (1.06–1.12 mid-Oct), then persistent lower highs: ~1.01 (Oct 21), 0.99–0.98 (Oct 24–28), 0.94 (Oct 28), and a drive to new lows (0.801 Nov 3, then 0.733 Nov 4). This is a classic downtrend with a capitulation event.
• Near-term (last 3–4 days): Spring/flush at 0.733 (Nov 4), then a higher low at 0.778–0.780 (Nov 7 12–13h UTC), and a higher high vs prior intraday peaks (~0.885 taken out Nov 7 17–21h). That shifts the intraday structure to bullish (HH/HL sequence).
• Conclusion: Daily trend still down; intraday trend has flipped up. This sets up for a mean-reversion pop toward daily moving average bands before reassessing.

2. Key support/resistance and price memory

• Immediate supports: 0.889–0.895 (today’s breakout shelf), 0.875 (Nov 1/Oct 31 closes pivot band), 0.860–0.862 (intraday micro shelf), 0.820–0.825 (Nov 6–7 session base), 0.801/0.806 (Nov 3 close), 0.733 (capitulation low).
• Overhead resistance clusters: 0.915–0.922 (Oct 27 close/Nov 1 close zone), 0.940–0.955 (late Oct congestion), 0.970–0.985 (61.8% retrace cluster and prior supply), 0.998–1.02 (psychological 1.00 and prior breakdown level), 1.056–1.064 (mid-Oct support now resistance).
• Takeaway: The 0.915–0.955 band is the first supply wall; 0.97–1.00 is secondary if momentum accelerates.

3. Fibonacci mapping (swing mid-Oct to Nov low)

• Measured from the mid-Oct lower high ~1.124 (Oct 13 close near 1.124) to the Nov 4 low 0.733: • Range Δ ≈ 0.391. • 38.2%: ~0.733 + 0.149 ≈ 0.882 (already reclaimed today). • 50%: ~0.733 + 0.195 ≈ 0.928–0.929 (first logical magnet). • 61.8%: ~0.733 + 0.242 ≈ 0.975–0.976 (secondary magnet just under 0.98).
• Implication: Having cleared 38.2%, the path of least resistance is a test of 50% (0.928–0.93) and potentially 61.8% (0.971–0.976) if momentum persists in the next 24h.

4. Moving averages and mean reversion

• 20-day SMA (approx): Recent closes between ~1.005 on Oct 19 down to 0.733 Nov 4, with several 0.94–0.99 prints; a rough average clusters near 0.95–0.97. Current price (0.90) is below the 20D SMA, indicating room for mean reversion toward the mid-band.
• 50-day SMA (approx): Likely ~1.25–1.35 given Aug–Sep prices; still well above, so the higher timeframe trend remains down.
• Takeaway: A short-term push toward the 20D SMA zone (0.94–0.97) is a reasonable mean-reversion target.

5. Bollinger Bands (20,2) – qualitative

• After the Oct 10 shock, bands expanded; price hugged the lower band into early Nov. Today’s reclaim from sub-band to mid-band region signals a mean-reversion attempt toward the middle band (near the 20D SMA ~0.95). If bands are still wide, a tag of the mid-band within 24h is plausible.

6. Momentum: RSI, Stochastic, MACD (qualitative inference)

• Daily RSI: Likely recovered from oversold (sub-30) at 0.733 low to the mid-40s. Momentum rising but not overbought. Room to run toward neutral (50–55) as price hunts 0.93–0.97.
• Hourly RSI: After the 0.78→0.90 thrust, likely in 60–70 zone; brief pullbacks should reset it without negating the uptrend.
• MACD daily: Histogram likely contracting (less negative) with a nascent bullish cross setting up if follow-through continues. Hourly MACD is positive and rising.
• Stochastic (H1/H4): Likely elevated; expect micro-dips to reset stochastics around the 0.885–0.895 demand zone.

7. Intraday VWAP and volume analysis

• VWAP: Session drifted up from ~0.84–0.86 early to ~0.88–0.89 as buyers controlled the tape post-Europe open. Price has held above VWAP in the US afternoon, a sign of sustained demand.
• Volume: Today’s aggregate volume (≈20M) is materially higher than the prior few sessions and accompanied the trend day higher, a constructive quality signal for continuation.
• OBV/CMF (qualitative): Positive slope today; money flow favors accumulation over distribution intraday.

8. Volatility and ATR

• Daily ATR(14) estimate: 0.07–0.09 given recent ranges. A 24h move from 0.90 to 0.96–0.98 sits within 1–1.5x ATR, realistic for a momentum continuation day after a base.
• Intraday realized vol today was elevated but orderly; pullbacks shallow (0.885–0.895 bought). This behavior supports buying dips into that shelf.

9. Candlestick and pattern reads

• Daily: Post-capitulation basing candles (Nov 1–4) followed by a strong wide-range up candle today reclaiming a prior breakdown pivot (~0.89–0.90). This resembles a bullish recovery bar.
• Intraday: Bull flag consolidation 18:00–21:00 UTC near 0.88–0.90, followed by a minor breakout into the close. Expect a backtest toward 0.889–0.895 to confirm the flag.

10. Ichimoku perspective (qualitative)

• Daily: Price below Kumo with Kijun likely above price; however Tenkan may start curling up. A Tenkan→Kijun recapture often coincides with a mean-reversion push to the flat Kijun (likely near 0.95).
• Hourly: Tenkan > Kijun and price above a thin cloud suggests short-term bullish bias; a cloud twist ahead could add support for a 24h continuation.

11. Keltner Channels / Donchian Channels (qualitative)

• Keltner: Price moving from lower band toward the EMA centerline—consistent with a continuation to the mid-channel ~0.94–0.96.
• Donchian (20): Break above recent 20H high area near 0.885–0.89 confirms a short-term trend shift; next Donchian resistance sits in the 0.93–0.95 area.

12. Parabolic SAR (qualitative)

• After the Nov 4 low, SAR dots likely flipped below price on the hourly; SAR uptrend typically persists until a sharp reversal. Supports continuation with trailing stop behavior.

13. Elliott wave (tactical count)

• Wave 1: 0.733 → ~0.885.
• Wave 2: Pullback to ~0.778.
• Wave 3 underway: Typical targets: 1.618 extension of wave 1 from wave 2 low: 0.778 + 1.618*(0.885−0.778) ≈ 0.954–0.956. That aligns with the 0.95–0.96 resistance band.

14. Wyckoff read

• Phase C spring at 0.733 followed by a higher low (test) near ~0.778; today’s demand candle is Phase D markup toward resistance. Targeting the next supply nodes 0.93–0.96 fits the script; failure back below 0.875 would negate Phase D progression.

15. Liquidity, order blocks, and stop-magnet zones

• Liquidity pools: Above 0.915–0.922 (recent highs), and 0.94–0.955 (late-Oct highs). Price is incentivized to run those stops next.
• Order blocks: 0.885–0.895 is now a fresh bullish order block (former supply turned demand). Expect bids on retests.

16. Relative/sector context (caveat)

• ETHW, as a derivative of ETH ecosystem sentiment, often correlates with broad crypto beta. While we do not have concurrent ETH/BTC data here, the pattern of a relief rally post-capitulation is common across alt-beta when majors stabilize into the weekend. This adds a soft tailwind for the next 12–24h.

17. Scenarios with probabilities (subjective)

• Bullish continuation (≈60%): Pullback to 0.889–0.895 holds, push to 0.928–0.935 (50% fib), consolidation, then probe 0.95–0.965 (Elliott wave 3 target and resistance shelf).
• Range consolidation (≈30%): Whipsaw 0.885–0.915 for several hours; no decisive breakout until later. Range likely resolves up if buyers continue defending 0.889.
• Bearish failure (≈10%): Break below 0.875 invalidates the breakout; slide into 0.845–0.855 and possibly 0.82–0.83 if risk-off returns.

18. Risk management and trade design

• Rationale to be long: Intraday trend flip, volume confirmation, VWAP reclaim, reclaim of 38.2% retracement, clear nearby dip-buy zone (0.889–0.895), targets aligning across tools (Fib 50%/61.8%, Elliott wave 3, Bollinger mid-band).
• Entry method: Limit buy into a backtest of 0.889 (prior resistance turned support), or alternatively breakout buy above 0.906 with tight risk. We’ll specify the optimal limit at 0.889.
• Invalidation (stop idea, not part of requested outputs): 0.862 (below intraday shelf and pre-pump base) or conservative 0.875 if tighter risk is needed.
• Reward-to-risk (illustrative): Entry 0.889, target 0.965 (≈+0.076). Stop 0.862 (−0.027). R:R ≈ 2.8:1. Fits a high-quality momentum mean reversion setup.

19. Time-of-day considerations

• Asia open often tests prior US close levels. A dip into 0.889–0.895 during thin liquidity is a common retest pattern. If that holds, the European session can launch toward 0.93–0.95.

Synthesis and 24h forecast

• The confluence of: (i) intraday structural reversal (HH/HL) and VWAP reclaim; (ii) volume expansion on the up-leg; (iii) reclaim of the 38.2% retracement with next magnets at 0.93 and 0.97; (iv) alignment with Elliott wave 3 and Bollinger mid-band; collectively argues for continuation higher in the next 24 hours.
• Expected path: Early dip to 0.889–0.895, then advance to 0.928–0.935. If momentum persists, extension to 0.955–0.965. Only a clean break back below 0.875 would materially weaken this view.

Actionable plan

• Bias: Buy dips.
• Optimal open: 0.889 (limit buy on backtest of breakout shelf).
• Profit target (24h): 0.965 (confluence of fib 61.8%/Elliott wave 3 target/resistance shelf). Consider partials at 0.935–0.945 if actively managing.
• Risk note: Thin liquidity pockets (recent missing daily candles) can cause slippage; size appropriately.

Conclusion

• Decision: Buy (Long position).
• Rationale: Strong intraday momentum and volume after capitulation, multi-tool confluence toward 0.93–0.97 with supportive dip-buy zone at 0.889–0.895. Expect continuation over the next 24 hours barring a break back below 0.875.