FARTCOIN’s First Real Bounce: Buy the 1.04 Retest for a Push Toward 1.10

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Moderately bullish with dip-buying opportunity. Expect consolidation pullback to 1.03–1.05 followed by a push into 1.09–1.10 if 1.04 holds.
• Reason: Short‑term market structure has flipped to higher lows/higher highs since the Aug 1 capitulation; today printed a strong bullish daily candle reclaiming key intraday levels on rising volume. Momentum is turning up on lower timeframes while the daily remains below mean—leaving room for a mean‑reversion advance toward the 20‑day basis.

1. Multi‑timeframe price/volume context

• Daily trend: After topping near 1.69 (Jul 22), FARTCOIN trended down to a washout at 0.88–0.92 (Aug 1–6), then formed higher lows (Aug 6 > Aug 1) and today’s strong green day (Open≈1.044, Low≈0.991, Close≈1.058) closes near the high—bullish commitment.
• Intraday (hourly, last 24h): Stair‑step advance from ~1.02 to ~1.06 with tight pullbacks, breakout during the 20:00 hour to new session highs (1.059). Price is hugging the upper Bollinger on 1h and holding above intraday VWAP—classic trend day characteristics.
• Volume: Selloff (Aug 1) showed capitulative volume, then declining sell pressure with steady buy volume. Today’s bounce carried ~240M volume—higher than recent up days—confirming participation on the push.

2. Market structure and key levels

• Structure: Downtrend -> base -> nascent uptrend. Sequence of higher lows: 0.88–0.90 (Aug 1) → ~0.908 (Aug 6) → ~0.991 (today). Higher highs intraday confirm short‑term trend shift.
• Support zones: 1.04–1.05 (intraday breakout area + micro demand), 1.00–1.02 (round number + Fibonacci 23.6–38.2% of the Aug 6 → today advance), then 0.977/0.968 (50–61.8% retrace & prior close cluster), 0.938 (Aug 6 close), 0.917–0.900 (capitulation base).
• Resistance zones: 1.06–1.07 (local highs/upper 1h band), 1.09–1.10 (July 29–30 supply pocket), 1.149 (Jul 28 close), 1.20 (≈20‑day SMA mid‑band), then 1.32+.
• Liquidity map: Stop clusters likely sit just above 1.06/1.07 (recent highs) and 1.09/1.10 (prior breakdown zone). Below, liquidity pockets around 1.04 (breakout retest) and 1.00 (psychological level). Expect whipsaws around these nodes.

3. Moving averages (trend/momentum baselines)

• Daily SMA20 ≈ 1.201 (approx). Price 1.058 is below the 20‑day, implying the broader daily trend is still down, but a mean‑reversion path toward 1.15–1.20 is open if momentum persists.
• Daily SMA50 likely ≈ 1.25–1.30 (given June–July pricing). Price below SMA50 = medium‑term downtrend intact, but short‑term rallies up to the 20‑day/50‑day underside are common.
• 1h EMAs (8/21/55): Price trading above and EMAs stacked positively; pullbacks to the 21/55 EMA (≈1.045/1.035 region) are buyable in trend continuation setups.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Likely recovered from low 30s (early Aug) into mid‑40s to near 50. That is a constructive “RSI midline reclaim” attempt; room to run before overbought.
• 1h RSI: Upper 50s–60s with brief overbought spikes on the breakout. Expect a shallow pullback to reset toward 50 before next leg higher—buyable if price holds 1.04–1.05.
• MACD (daily): Histogram likely improving from negative toward zero; signal cross may occur if price sustains above 1.05–1.07 for another session.
• MACD (1h): Positive with expanding histogram—supports continuation after a dip.
• Stochastic (1h): Overbought; typically signals a near‑term pullback but in trend days this can remain elevated. Look for a bull cross after a small dip for re‑entry timing.

5. Volatility/mean reversion tools

• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20): Basis ≈ 1.20; price recently pinned the lower band (Aug 1–6) and is now reverting toward the basis. Current location between lower band and mid suggests more upside room.
• Bollinger Bands (1h): Price riding the upper band; expect a band walk pause with a tightening flag around 1.04–1.05 before another push.
• ATR(14) daily: Roughly 0.14–0.16. Implies a typical 24h move band of ±0.15 around price. From 1.06, an achievable upside objective to ~1.20 is ambitious; more reasonable is 1.09–1.12 within 1 day.

6. Volume/flow metrics

• OBV/Accumulation (qualitative): OBV trough aligned with Aug 1 low; subsequent higher lows in OBV likely, confirming accumulation. Today’s green candle on above‑avg volume is a positive money‑flow signal.
• CMF/MFI (qualitative): Improving from negative to near neutral/positive on daily; strongly positive on 1h—consistent with a bid under price.
• VWAP: Intraday price above session VWAP; anchored VWAP from Aug 6 low (qualitatively) sits near ~1.02–1.03, acting as dynamic support on dips.

7. Ichimoku Cloud (trend state cross‑check)

• Daily: Price still below the cloud; Tenkan (9) likely near 1.04–1.07 and Kijun (26) higher (~1.25–1.30). Reclaiming/holding above Tenkan is the first bullish milestone; Kijun/Cloud tests would be next‑week objectives, not 24h.
• 1h: Price above cloud; conversion/base lines trending up; cloud twist supportive. Pullbacks into the top of the 1h cloud (~1.04) are high‑odds buys in this regime.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing: Aug 6 low (~0.9079) to today’s high (~1.0590) → Range ≈ 0.1511.
  • 23.6% retrace ≈ 1.023
  • 38.2% ≈ 1.001
  • 50% ≈ 0.984
  • 61.8% ≈ 0.966
• Interpretation: A shallow, bullish pullback will often hold above the 23.6–38.2% window (1.02–1.00). Given the strength of today’s close, a retest of 1.04–1.05 (micro‑structure) is probable before buyers step back in; deeper dips into 1.02–1.00 remain viable buys while the higher‑low sequence holds.
• Extensions (if 1.059 breaks): 1.618 extension of the 0.908→1.059 leg projects into ~1.14–1.15 area—aligning with the Jul 28 supply and below the daily mid‑band.

9. Patterns & signals

• Double bottom / basing: Two swing lows ~0.90–0.91 (Aug 1 and Aug 6) with a neckline breakout ~1.03 achieved on Aug 8. Measured move ≈ 0.12 → target ≈ 1.15 (swing), though not necessarily in 24h.
• Candlestick: Today resembles a bullish expansion candle closing near highs—often followed by a brief inside/flag day or a continuation gap‑and‑go on strong markets.
• Breakout‑retest logic: First breakout through 1.03 suggests a classic retest buy zone at 1.03–1.05. Failure only if acceptance below 1.00 reappears.

10. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Count proposal: ABC corrective decline into Aug 6 (C complete). New impulsive sequence started: i up (Aug 6→8), ii pullback (likely into 1.03–1.05), iii up to 1.10–1.12 (24–48h), iv shallow, v toward 1.14–1.15 (beyond 24h if momentum persists). Invalidation for this impulsive scenario is sustained trade below ~0.98 (50% retrace of i).

11. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Small pullback to 1.04–1.05 during Asia/early Europe, hold above 1.04, then trend continuation to 1.09–1.10 during US hours. Highs fade into resistance near 1.10.
• Bullish extension (25%): Minimal dip; immediate break of 1.059→1.07 and squeeze through 1.09; spike prints 1.10–1.12 with momentum; closes near 1.09–1.10.
• Bearish fade (20%): Failure of 1.04 on retest; acceleration to 1.02–1.00; buyers defend 1.00. Only if 0.98–0.97 snaps does the structure shift back to bearish.

12. Risk management guidance (for implementation)

• Preferred trade: Buy the dip at 1.04–1.05 (limit). Tactical stop below the 38.2–50% fib cluster: 1.00–0.985; a common stop is 0.999 to avoid sweeps. Risk ≈ 0.041–0.055 for a target 1.098–1.10 (reward ≈ 0.048–0.060), R:R ≈ 1:1 to 1.2:1 on conservative stop; improves to ~1.5–2:1 if using a 1.01 stop.
• Alternative momentum entry: If price runs without pulling back, a breakout add above 1.065–1.070 with tight stop back inside 1.055 can target 1.095–1.10. (Not encoded in the single open price below, but useful tactically.)

13. Confluence summary

• Bullish:
  • Higher lows since Aug 1; breakout above 1.03 with strong close and rising volume.
  • 1h EMAs/vWAP support; MACD positive and RSI midline reclaimed.
  • Double‑bottom/ABC completion; fib structure supportive of shallow pullbacks.
• Cautionary/Bearish risks:
  • Price still below daily SMA20/SMA50 and under the Ichimoku cloud—rally is counter‑trend on the daily.
  • 1h oscillators near overbought; likely need a dip/flag for healthy continuation.
  • Heavy supply near 1.09–1.10 and especially 1.15; upside could stall on first test.

Bottom line

• Setup quality: B (short‑term long). Tactical long favored on pullbacks toward 1.04–1.05 with targets into 1.09–1.10 within 24h. Invalidation below ~0.99–0.98.

Price path prediction (24h)

• Consolidate/pull back to 1.04 ±0.01 → rebound leg toward 1.09–1.10 → close near 1.07–1.09 if momentum sustains.