Fartcoin at the Cliff Edge: Sell the First Bounce Below VWAP

Multi‑timeframe technical scan (Daily, 4H/1H)

1. Market structure and trend

• Primary structure (daily): Lower highs from the 1.69 swing high (Jul 22) to 1.52 (Jul 20), 1.44–1.43 (late Jul), then lower again through early Aug; a decisive breakdown below 1.10–1.12 supply and a fresh test of the 1.00 round‑number today. The sequence confirms a downtrend.
• Intraday structure (hourly, Aug 14): Trend day down. After an early push to ~1.174, price stair‑stepped lower all session, closing near the lows (~1.002). Any bounces were sold; rallies capped under successive lower highs (1.16 → 1.12 → 1.05 → 1.02).

2. Key levels (derived from recent price/volume and pivots)

• Psychological: 1.00 (just probed; minor hold so far), 1.10, 1.20.
• Immediate supports: 0.995–1.000 (today’s low zone), 0.958–0.965 (prior liquidity pocket), 0.92–0.93; major 0.88–0.90 (Aug 1–2 and Aug 11 cluster; high‑volume shelf).
• Immediate resistances: 1.015–1.03 (intraday mid‑band retest zone), 1.05–1.06 (daily pivot/VWAP region), 1.09–1.12 (heavy supply/volume node), 1.15–1.17 (rejection cluster today; 38.2% Fib of the larger downswing).
• Classic daily pivots (using H=1.1743, L=0.9955, C≈1.0020): P≈1.0573, R1≈1.1190, S1≈0.9402, R2≈1.2361, S2≈0.8784. Note how P≈1.057 aligns with resistance.

3. Moving averages alignment

• 5‑SMA ≈ 1.032, 10‑SMA ≈ 1.027, 20‑SMA ≈ 1.050 (all approximated from closes). Spot ≈ 1.002 sits below all three → bearish momentum and negative slope bias. The short MA stack (5<20) favors trend continuation.
• EMAs (qualitative): 8EMA near low 1.03s; 21EMA near ~1.06–1.08. Price is below both, consistent with a momentum short regime.

4. Momentum/oscillators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 54 on a pure close‑to‑close basis over the last 14 sessions, but this masks today’s intraday damage. Hourly RSI printed persistent sub‑40 readings into the close → bearish, with only shallow mean‑reversion so far.
• Stochastic (1H): Oversold cluster (<20) for multiple hours; minor bounce potential toward 1.01–1.03, but bear trends often keep oscillators pinned.
• MACD (daily): Bearish re‑cross lower likely after today’s breakdown; histogram turning negative → supports sell‑the‑rally tactics.
• MFI/OBV (qualitative): High‑volume down day indicates distribution; OBV rolled over, confirming supply dominance.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~0.10–0.12. A typical 24h swing from 1.00 implies a probabilistic band of 0.90–1.10.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid near ~1.05; lower band sits well below spot due to recent volatility. Price hugging/breaching lower bands intraday indicates trend pressure; first bounce targets the mid‑band only if 1.05 can be reclaimed (currently unlikely).
• Keltner Channels: Price pressed/closed near or below lower KC, a hallmark of trend day down. Until candles close back inside the channel on hourly, momentum remains southbound.

6. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun, and below the cloud. Bearish orientation. The cloud above (approx mid‑1.10s to 1.20s) is thick: significant overhead supply.

7. Fibonacci and pattern confluence

• Major swing: High 1.69 (Jul 22) to low 0.855 (Aug 11). 38.2% retrace ≈ 1.16, 50% ≈ 1.27, 61.8% ≈ 1.38. The Aug 13–14 pop into 1.16–1.17 was sold hard → classic rejection at the 38.2% retracement.
• Head‑and‑Shoulders (late Jul): Neckline ~1.32 broke; measured move projects to ~0.98–1.00. That target has been met today, often leading to a pause/bounce, but not necessarily a durable bottom.
• Harmonic/AB=CD (intraday): A measured leg from 1.174 → 1.037 (~0.137) projects a C‑leg toward ~0.900 if symmetry fully completes. First interim target sits near 0.955–0.965 (prior demand and half‑ATR extension), aligning with our take‑profit zone.

8. Volume profile/VWAP and Wyckoff lens

• Today’s session showcases an Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) style action into 1.16–1.17, followed by a Sign of Weakness (SOW) through 1.05 and 1.02. Expect a Last Point of Supply (LPSY) rally to cap between 1.015–1.06 before markdown resumes.
• Daily VWAP estimate sits above spot (≈1.05–1.07). Price below VWAP → every rally toward VWAP likely sold by trapped longs and responsive sellers.

9. Candles/price action

• Today: Large bearish wide‑range candle closing near the low (bearish Marubozu / outside‑day down). Probability favors follow‑through selling over the next 1–2 sessions unless 1.05–1.06 is reclaimed on strong breadth and volume.
• Micro PA into the close: Small uptick from 0.995 to ~1.002 suggests a tired drift, not an impulsive reversal.

10. ADX/DMI and SAR

• ADX rising into the 20s with -DI > +DI → mature but strengthening downtrend.
• Parabolic SAR prints above price across intraday frames → sell bias.

11. Mean reversion vs continuation

• Mean reversion case: Hourly oscillators oversold; a reflex pop into 1.015–1.03 is reasonable. However, with stacked MAs above and a heavy pivot/VWAP lid near 1.05–1.06, the path of least resistance is still down after a bounce.
• Continuation case: Failure to reclaim 1.015–1.03 quickly likely invites a push to 0.96–0.955 (liquidity pocket) and potentially 0.94 (S1) or even 0.90 if momentum accelerates.

12. Scenario map (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Early bounce stalls 1.015–1.03; roll over to 0.96–0.955; modest end‑session stabilization 0.96–0.985.
• Bear extension (25%): No meaningful bounce; clean break of 0.995 opens 0.958 then 0.94; tail risk probe 0.90–0.92 if broad crypto risk off.
• Squeeze risk (20%): Strong reclaim of 1.05–1.06 pivot/VWAP forces shorts to cover; fast run to 1.09–1.12. This is the invalidation for the short idea.

13. Trade thesis and execution plan

• Thesis: Trend day down into a key psychological 1.00 with heavy distribution and negative breadth favors selling into the first bounce (LPSY) rather than knife‑catching longs. Multiple frameworks (MA stack, VWAP underside, Ichimoku, MACD roll, Wyckoff structure) align.
• Entry logic: Place a patient limit‑sell slightly above market where the first bounce is likely to exhaust (micro supply). Optimal zone: 1.015–1.03. This also improves R:R versus shorting the absolute low.
• Targeting: First target 0.958–0.965 aligns with prior demand and harmonic symmetry; deeper extension possible, but book gains into that pocket.
• Invalidation/stop (risk control, not part of the official output fields): A decisive hourly close back above 1.053–1.06 (pivot/VWAP) invalidates the immediate short; a hard stop near ~1.058–1.062 contains risk. From a 1.016 entry to a 1.060 stop ≈ 4.3% risk for ~5.7% reward to 0.958 → R:R ≈ 1:1.3 (improves if scaling in closer to 1.03).

14. Why not a long here?

• While 1.00 is psychological support and could produce a tradable bounce, the dominant signals are still bearish. Longs would be counter‑trend with heavy overhead supply and poor R:R unless/until 1.05–1.06 is reclaimed on volume.

Bottom line

• Momentum remains down. Favor selling the first bounce into 1.015–1.03 with a primary take‑profit around 0.958. Reclaim of 1.053–1.06 would negate the immediate short bias and shift toward a squeeze into 1.09–1.12.

Predicted path (24h): Small relief rally to ~1.02 ±0.01, then continuation lower toward 0.96–0.955, with a lower‑probability flush toward 0.94 if sellers press their advantage.