S3 Flush Into 50% Fib: Setting Up a Reflexive Bounce in FARTCOIN

Executive summary

• Current price: $0.8365. After a multi-week advance off the 9/1 low ($0.7144) to a 9/13 closing peak ($0.9529), FARTCOIN printed a sharp intraday selloff today, pushing price beneath short-term moving averages and through multiple intraday supports. Price now sits at a high-confluence retracement zone (Fib 50%, daily S3 pivot region, prior volume shelf), where a reflexive bounce over the next 24 hours is favored if $0.827–0.832 holds.
• Bias next 24h: Tactical mean-reversion bounce favored (base → pop), but broader short-term structure is fragile. Optimal plan: Buy the dip into $0.830–0.835 with a take-profit set below the heavy supply band at $0.89.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Higher timeframe (daily) context • From late June through late July, the asset peaked north of $1.6 and transitioned into a downtrend through late August, bottoming on 9/1 ($0.7144 close). • A strong recovery followed: 9/1 → 9/13 closed up ~33% (0.7144 → 0.9529), establishing a new series of higher highs and higher lows through 9/13–9/18 (closes: 0.9529, 0.8709, 0.8276, 0.8446, 0.9258, 0.9368). • Today’s breakdown to ~0.836 undercut the 9/16 swing low (0.8446), signaling a near-term market structure break (loss of the most recent higher low). This shifts short-term from uptrend to neutral/down. • Nonetheless, the pullback has reached the 50% retracement of the entire 9/1 → 9/18 upswing and is slightly above the 20-day mean—fertile ground for a bounce attempt.

• Intraday (hourly) structure • 9/19 hours show a stair-step of lower highs and lower lows from ~0.95 down to ~0.83 with heavier sells around 11:00, 14:00–15:00, and 18:00 UTC. • Price briefly pierced the classical daily S3 pivot equivalent (~0.839, computed from 9/18 H/L/C) and stabilized near 0.832–0.837—typical of a late-session capitulation + base pattern ahead of mean reversion. • The last few hours show compression and reduced range near 0.833–0.837: a potential bear flag continuation OR a bear-trap base. Given the confluence of daily supports here, the base scenario marginally edges out.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily 20-SMA ≈ 0.826 (approx from the last 20 daily closes) • Current price ($0.836) is modestly above the 20-SMA: neutral-to-slightly positive mean position.
• Daily 9-EMA (approx): ~0.90–0.91 based on recent closes • Price is well below 9-EMA: short-term momentum turned down.
• Implication: Mixed—intermediate mean intact (above 20-SMA), but momentum regime weakened (below 9-EMA). A bounce to the 9-EMA (0.90+) in 24h is ambitious; a reversion toward 0.87–0.89 is more realistic within ATR.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily • As of 9/18’s close, RSI ≈ 70 (derived from 14-period gains/losses). Today’s steep drop likely drags daily RSI into the low-to-mid 50s—reset from near-overbought to neutral. • This is classically constructive for a reset-and-bounce if price holds key supports.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Likely crossing down from overbought into neutral; room exists for a reversion pop if basing completes.
• MACD (12/26/9, qualitative): Positive histogram likely peaked around 9/13–9/18 and is rolling over; signal-line cross risk in coming sessions. Near-term MACD adds caution but doesn’t preclude a 24h bounce.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~0.06–0.08. • 24h expected range from $0.836: approx $0.776–$0.896 (centered on current price). This frames reasonable upside targets and downside risk bands.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily (qualitative): • Midline ≈ 20-SMA (~$0.826). Upper band near ~$0.96, lower band near ~$0.69–$0.70 (rough est.). Current price sits just above midline—neutral in band context, favoring mean-reversion tactics over trend-following shorts here.

5. Volume/flow analytics

• Daily volume lately: 9/18 ≈ 167M; today tracking near ~160M at the snapshot; elevated but not climactic.
• Intraday saw heavier distribution prints at 14:00–15:00 UTC (notable for the breakdown leg). Subsequent stabilization on lighter volume suggests sell pressure abating into the close.
• OBV (qualitative): Uptrend from early September, slight downtick today—no decisive distribution break. This favors the base-and-bounce scenario if support holds.
• CMF/MFI (qualitative): After sustained positive flows earlier in the week, today’s session shows outflow; watch for the first higher low in flow metrics to confirm a bounce.

6. Key levels: supports, resistances, pivots

• Range landmarks • Major swing low: 9/1 close $0.7144. • Recent high zone: 9/13 close $0.9529; 9/18 high ~$0.9538.

• Supports (nearest first) • $0.832–0.835: current base zone, near 50% retrace and below S3. • $0.8276: 9/15 close; very nearby—micro shelf. • $0.8203: 9/8 close; prior acceptance. • $0.8100: 8/26 close; psychological + shelf. • $0.793–0.799: late-August cluster.

• Resistances (nearest first) • $0.848–0.852: 61.8% retrace of 8/25→9/13 leg; first supply on any bounce. • $0.865–0.868: daily S2 from 9/18 pivots and broken intraday shelf. • $0.875–0.889: pre-breakdown consolidation and supply band; realistic 24h target. • $0.901–0.905: S1 / round-trip magnet; stretch target if momentum returns quickly.

• Classical Pivots from 9/18 H/L/C (H≈0.95384, L≈0.89187, C≈0.93685) • P ≈ 0.9275; R1 ≈ 0.9632; R2 ≈ 0.9895; S1 ≈ 0.9012; S2 ≈ 0.8656; S3 ≈ 0.8392. • Today broke below S3 intraday and is stabilizing just under it—typical overshoot conditions that often mean-revert toward S2/S1 within 24h.

7. Fibonacci confluence

• Entire recovery leg 9/1 ($0.7144) → 9/18 ($0.9368): range = 0.2224. • 50% retrace = 0.8256; 38.2% = 0.8528; 61.8% = 0.803. • Price at $0.836 sits between 38.2% and 50% retrace, just above 50% of the larger 9/1→9/18 swing and almost exactly 50% of 9/1→9/13 ($0.7144→$0.9529 gives 50% ≈ $0.8335). • This dense Fib confluence in the $0.828–0.836 zone supports the bounce case if defended.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price likely above the Kijun baseline pre-selloff but now threatening a Tenkan/Kijun cross down; cloud support status uncertain. Net: neutralizing from bullish; cloud still may provide underpin on dips depending on its span.
• 1H: Price below cloud, Tenkan < Kijun, Chikou below price—bearish intraday state, which is why the bounce trigger should be a reclaim of $0.84+ after a dip buy rather than chasing mid-range.

9. Pattern analysis

• Intraday descending channel/falling wedge behavior into $0.832–0.837. Late-session compression after an S3 flush is consistent with bear exhaustion and a reflexive pop toward prior intraday supply ($0.865–0.885).
• Candlestick signal (daily): If the day closes near lows, it resembles a wide-ranging bearish candle (near marubozu). In isolation it’s continuation-bearish, but its location at multi-support increases odds of a subsequent inside day or bounce.

10. Mean reversion vs momentum setup

• Momentum trade (short) is now late in the move (price extended below 9-EMA, at S3/Fib 50% confluence). Reward-to-risk for fresh shorts is mediocre into this support cluster.
• Mean reversion long offers a better skew: buy $0.830–0.835 with target below first heavy supply ($0.885–0.90). ATR supports this distance; pivots/S2-S1 lines up with $0.866–0.901 as a magnet zone.

11. Scenario map (next 24 hours)

• Base-and-bounce (55%): Hold $0.827–0.835, push to $0.865–0.889; stalls below $0.90.
• Sideways consolidation (30%): Chop $0.827–0.858, then attempt higher on the following session.
• Downside continuation (15%): Lose $0.827 → quick probe $0.820/$0.815; stretch to $0.803 (61.8% of the larger move) if liquidation accelerates. This would likely require a fresh volume spike; absent that, the base holds more often than not.

12. Risk framing and execution

• Entry: Stagger or place a limit near $0.832 to buy the dip at support confluence.
• Profit-taking: First objective into the $0.875–0.889 supply band where sellers have repeatedly shown up; conservative TP set at $0.888 maximizes capture while front-running supply.
• Invalidation context (not an order, just context): A firm 1H close below ~$0.820 would invalidate the mean-reversion thesis and open $0.810/$0.803.

Bottom line

• The market just printed a classic S3/Fib-50% flush into a prior volume shelf while still hovering near the 20-day mean. That location, plus a reset in RSI from ~70 toward neutral, tilts the next 24 hours toward a bounce into the mid/high-$0.80s. I favor a tactical long opened on a dip near $0.832 with a take-profit near $0.888, acknowledging the structural fragility created by today’s breakdown of the most recent higher low.