FARTCOIN breaks out above 0.635—buy the retest for a run at the 0.70 Fib magnet

Executive view (next 24h): Short-term momentum has flipped bullish after an hourly range breakout above 0.635–0.640 with expanding volume. Bias: buy pullbacks for a push toward 0.69–0.71, with 0.702 (Fib 0.382) as the first major magnet. Expect a retest of the breakout zone before continuation.

1. Multi-timeframe market structure

• Daily trend: Still a broader downtrend since late July (series of lower highs/lows from ~1.69 to 0.55). However, the last 3–4 sessions show a basing process with higher lows (0.5507 → 0.5853 → 0.5949 → 0.6341) and now a fresh push to 0.6588. Structure is transitioning from bearish to neutral-bullish in the short run.
• 4H/1H trend: Clear bullish break. On 1H, price consolidated 0.59–0.62 most of the day, then broke the 0.633–0.635 lid with a wide-range bullish candle to 0.653 and continued to 0.6588. Market structure shows a fresh HH/HL sequence and an intraday breakout with follow-through.

2. Key levels (confluence of S/R, prior swing points, and recent ranges)

• Major support: 0.548–0.551 (cycle low), 0.585, 0.603–0.606 (hourly shelf), 0.633–0.635 (yesterday’s high and 23.6% Fib; now support).
• Near-term resistance: 0.659–0.665 (current area), 0.678–0.681 (daily pivot R2 zone), 0.700–0.705 (Fib 0.382 at ~0.702), 0.714 (former breakdown area), 0.748–0.751 (Fib 0.5).
• Volume nodes: Heavy acceptance around 0.60–0.61 (today’s VWAP region); a thinner pocket 0.615–0.64 that price just vaulted; next higher-volume interest likely 0.68–0.71.

3. Moving averages (context)

• Daily: Price remains below the 20-day SMA (approx ~0.76) and well below the 50-day SMA (>0.9), keeping the higher-timeframe trend bearish. However, price has reclaimed the fast averages (10-day EMA likely ~0.62–0.63), supportive of short-term upside.
• 1H: Fast MAs (EMA9/EMA21) turned up and crossed above slower MAs; price is extended above the 1H 50MA and above intraday VWAP—classic momentum regime.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI: Recovering from prior oversold; likely mid-40s to ~50. A push above 50 would confirm a momentum regime shift. Room to run toward neutral (50–55) before overbought concerns.
• 1H RSI: Elevated (likely high-60s to low-70s) after the breakout. In a trend day, RSI can remain overbought while price grinds higher; look for pullbacks to reset without breaking structure.
• MACD (Daily): Negative but rising; histogram contracting toward zero—early bull momentum inflection signal.
• Stochastic (1H): Overbought; in strong trends this stays pinned, hence better used as a pullback timing tool near supports (0.645–0.635 zone) rather than as a fade signal.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR (Daily, est.): ~0.08–0.10. A 24h move from 0.66 implies plausible excursions to ~0.58–0.76 extremes; realistic objective for a trend continuation is +0.04–0.07 (0.70–0.73) if momentum holds.
• Bollinger Bands (Daily, 20,2): Mid-band near ~0.76 with lower band ~0.50–0.52. Price is climbing from the lower band toward the mean—mean reversion and momentum both favor upside toward the mid-band over coming sessions; within 24h, the 0.69–0.71 area is the more conservative target.

6. Volume, OBV, VWAP, and participation

• Breakout hour (20:00) saw a notable volume expansion accompanying a wide-range candle from ~0.615 to ~0.653—healthy confirmation.
• OBV (qualitative): Rising intraday with the breakout; accumulation tone.
• VWAP (today): Price is firmly above VWAP (~0.61–0.62), signaling buyers in control. Dips toward VWAP would be high-probability entries, but given the breakout, the prior lid at 0.633–0.635 is the more likely retest zone before buyers step back in.

7. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price below cloud; Tenkan > price recently reclaimed and price > Tenkan; Kijun higher (~0.78–0.80). This is classic “bearish overall, bullish short-term retrace” setup. Probability favors a rally toward Kijun over days, but within 24h the Tenkan hold/retest is key.
• 1H: Price above cloud, bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross, bullish Chikou confirmation—supports momentum continuation on dips.

8. Fibonacci context (swing Sep 13 high 0.9529 → Sep 25 low 0.5481)

• 23.6%: ~0.644 (already broken; should act as support on retest).
• 38.2%: ~0.702 (first major upside magnet; aligns with psychological 0.70 and just above daily R2).
• 50%: ~0.751 (stretch objective, likely beyond 24h without a secondary catalyst).
• 61.8%: ~0.798 (unlikely in 24h unless a trend day extends strongly).

9. Classical patterns and candles

• 1H inverse head-and-shoulders: Left shoulder ~0.595, head ~0.588, right shoulder ~0.595; neckline ~0.616. Measured move (~0.028) projected to ~0.644—now exceeded, validating pattern strength. Extensions suggest 0.66–0.67 plausible, with continuation toward 0.68–0.70 on follow-through.
• Breakout candles closed near highs with minimal upper wicks—bullish.

10. Pivot points (using 2025-09-28 daily H/L/C ≈ 0.6356/0.5699/0.6341)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.6132; R1 ≈ 0.6565 (now reclaimed); R2 ≈ 0.6789; R3 ≈ 0.7222.
• Price reclaiming R1 and holding above favors a probe of R2; R3 aligns with ambitious intraday extension and with Elliott wave projection (see next).

11. Elliott wave sketch (short-term)

• Wave 1: 0.548 → 0.635 (+0.087)
• Wave 2: 0.635 → 0.585 (healthy retrace)
• Wave 3 underway: Typical 1.618× extension of Wave 1 from Wave 2 low: 0.585 + 1.618×0.087 ≈ 0.726. That points to a broader upside path toward 0.72–0.73 over 24–48h if momentum persists. Near-term checkpoints: 0.679 (R2) then 0.702 (Fib 0.382).

12. Statistical/mean-reversion overlay

• Z-score vs 20D mean: Price (0.659) is still below the 20D mean (~0.759), around -0.7 to -0.8σ if we assume ~0.13 std dev, suggesting additional upside room toward the mean over time; within 24h, reaching 0.70 is reasonable without being statistically stretched.

13. Risk factors and invalidation

• Immediate risk: Post-breakout throwback to 0.644–0.635. Healthy as long as 0.633 holds on a closing basis (1H). A loss of 0.620 (intraday shelves) turns momentum fragile; below 0.603 negates the breakout and reopens 0.585/0.55.
• Overhead supply: 0.678–0.705 cluster may attract profit-taking; expect chop and wicks there.

14. 24h path expectation

• Base case (60%): Retest 0.644–0.635, then trend up to 0.68–0.70; close near 0.69–0.70.
• Bull case (25–30%): Shallow pullback or none; impulse through 0.679 to tag 0.70–0.705; possible spikes toward 0.715–0.722 (R3) if momentum accelerates.
• Bear/failure (10–15%): Breakout fails; sustained trade below 0.628 drags price back toward 0.603–0.606.

Trading plan logic

• Strategy: Buy-the-dip into the breakout retest zone rather than chase strength at 0.659. The 0.644–0.646 band aligns with 23.6% Fib flip, hourly structure, and just above the 0.640 micro shelf. This offers favorable R:R toward 0.70.
• Profit target: 0.701 (just below the 0.702 Fib 0.382 and under round-number 0.705 to improve fill odds). This captures the most probable 24h objective while front-running obvious offers.
• Optional risk control (not required but prudent): Stop below 0.628 (neckline reclaim failure) or tighter below 0.635 on strict momentum criteria. Risk per unit: ~0.016–0.019 vs reward ~0.056 from 0.645 → 0.701 gives ~3:1.

Conclusion

• The weight of evidence (hourly breakout with volume, reclaim of R1, Fib confluence, improving daily momentum while still below higher MAs) favors a tactical long. Optimal entry is a pullback limit in the mid-0.64s; first upside magnet sits at ~0.70.