Fartcoin’s Hourly Bull Flag Aims at 0.70+: Buy the Dip Near 0.662, Target 0.706 Within 24 Hours

Executive Summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish (buy-the-dip favored). Expect a grind higher into 0.69–0.71 if 0.662–0.665 holds; failure there risks a retest of 0.651–0.646.
• Key levels:
  • Support: 0.662–0.665 (intraday VWAP/20D mean zone), 0.651, 0.647 (50% Fib), 0.639–0.636, 0.625–0.628.
  • Resistance: 0.676–0.680 (Fib 38.2%/classic pivot P), 0.693–0.698, 0.706–0.710, 0.743–0.760.
• Setups:
  • Primary: Limit buy near 0.662 with TP ~0.706 (R:R ~2.4:1 if stop ~0.644–0.646).
  • Alternate: Momentum add on clean break and hold above 0.685/0.690 targeting 0.706–0.710.

Price Action and Market Structure

• Daily structure: A significant downtrend from July topped near 1.69, bottomed 9/25 at 0.5507, followed by a constructive series of higher lows into early October. The 10/06 high at 0.7607 marks the current swing high; the 10/07 pullback held near the 50% retracement of the 0.551→0.744 leg, and today reclaimed the 38.2% retracement.
• Intraday (hourly) structure on 10/08: Sharp liquidity sweep down to 0.625–0.626 at 03:00 (high volume), quickly reclaimed and trended up into a 17:00 expansion high at ~0.685 on strong volume, then orderly flagging between 0.669–0.679. This is a constructive bull flag just under a key pivot.
• Higher time-frame takeaway: The 9/25 low (0.551) is a major swing low. Since then, 9/30 (0.619), 10/04 (0.659), and 10/07 (0.646) define a rising series of higher lows. The path of least resistance is up while 0.646–0.651 holds.

Moving Averages

• SMA(5) ≈ 0.679 (current 0.668 sits modestly below, reflecting minor pullback within short-term uptrend).
• SMA(10) ≈ 0.661 (price above, positive short-term bias).
• SMA(20) ≈ 0.655 (price above; re-acceptance above 20D mean is constructive).
• 50D SMA (approx, trending down and well above price) indicates the long-term trend remains bearish, but the current regime is a countertrend rally/recovery phase.
• Takeaway: Short-term up, medium-term base, long-term still down—probability favors buying dips with tactical targets rather than expecting a swift trend reversal back to old highs.

Momentum and Oscillators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 56 (computed from the last 14 changes): bullish-neutral, room to run before overbought; supportive of continuation higher.
• Stochastic (14) approx mid-range (~56% of 14-day range: [0.551–0.761]): not overbought—supports additional upside if resistance breaks.
• MACD (12,26,9) daily: likely marginally positive with a flattening histogram after the 10/07 pullback, inflecting back up today. This favors a continuation push if price gets above 0.680/0.685.

Volatility and Bands

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 0.06–0.07. Expect 24h range ~±0.03–0.04 around the mean if volatility remains average; spikes can expand to ~0.07.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): midline ≈ 0.655; lower ≈ 0.535; upper ≈ 0.775 (approx). Price reclaimed the mid-band—statistically, once mid reclaims after a lower-band excursion, a drift toward the upper band is favored over multiple sessions (not necessarily within 24h but directionally helpful).
• Keltner Channels(20EMA,1.5*ATR): center near 0.655, upper ~0.75, lower ~0.56; price is in the upper half of the envelope.

Fibonacci and Levels

• Swing low 0.5507 (9/25) → swing high 0.7436 (10/06): range 0.1929.
  • 23.6%: ~0.698
  • 38.2%: ~0.670
  • 50%: ~0.647
  • 61.8%: ~0.625
• Price tested and held the 50% (0.647) on 10/07; today reclaimed the 38.2% (~0.670). Sustained closes above 0.670 generally target 0.698–0.706 next.

Intraday and Session Tools

• Intraday VWAP (approx) sits around 0.66–0.662 after the 03:00 sweep and 17:00 ramp. Current 0.668 trades above VWAP—bullish for the session complexion.
• Classic Daily Pivots (using 10/07 H=0.752, L=0.644, C=0.646):
  • P ≈ 0.680
  • R1 ≈ 0.717
  • S1 ≈ 0.609 Price is below P, but pressing into it from below; a hold above ~0.680 flips the session skew decisively bullish, with R1 ~0.717 aligning with our upper 24h zone.
• Donchian(20): High ≈ 0.761, Low ≈ 0.551; price is in the upper half and trending up from the mid-range—bullish if it can take 0.706/0.711 next.

Volume, OBV, and Flow

• Daily volume has been heavier on turns (9/22, 10/06) and on the 10/07 shakeout, suggesting strong hands absorbed downside. OBV (qualitatively) is trending up since 9/25.
• Hourly volume: large print at 03:00 on the down-sweep and at 17:00 on the upthrust—typical stop-run and reclaim behavior. This supports a bullish continuation into overhead liquidity around 0.685–0.698.

Ichimoku

• Tenkan (9) likely near 0.674–0.678; Kijun (26) ~0.627–0.631; price is above Kijun and toggling Tenkan. A firm reclaim above Tenkan with a rising Chikou span generally adds confirmation to the upside bias.
• Cloud ahead is likely thin/flat around mid-0.66–0.68, making it easier to break through with momentum.

Pattern Work

• Bull flag on the hourly: Flag pole from 0.626 to 0.685; consolidation 0.669–0.679. A measured move projects 0.728–0.735 on a breakout. Given ATR, 0.706–0.710 is a prudent 24h target, with a stretch toward 0.72 if momentum accelerates.
• Potential inverted H&S on daily is loose: left shoulder ~0.61 (9/22–24), head 0.551 (9/25), right shoulder ~0.62 (9/29–30); neckline ~0.676–0.680. Today is effectively a neckline retest zone—acceptance above it favors a broader move higher over multiple days.

Support/Resistance Map and Liquidity

• Immediate support: 0.665–0.662 (VWAP/20D SMA confluence), 0.651 (hourly micro shelf), 0.647 (50% Fib), 0.639–0.636 (hourly basing), 0.625–0.628 (61.8% Fib/stop cluster from sweep).
• Immediate resistance: 0.676–0.680 (Fib 38.2%/daily pivot P/neckline), 0.693–0.698 (prior daily supply and 23.6% Fib), 0.706–0.710 (round number/micro-supply), 0.743–0.760 (swing high zone).
• Liquidity likely resides just above equal highs in the 0.685–0.690 pocket and above 0.706; a run to collect these stops is plausible if 0.680 converts to support.

Risk Management, R:R, and Trade Design

• Proposed entry: 0.662 limit buy (buy-the-dip into VWAP/20D SMA confluence).
• Stop idea (not required but prudent): 0.644–0.646 (below 50% Fib and yesterday’s reaction shelf). Risk ≈ 0.016–0.018.
• Target (24h): 0.706 (below R1 and just under the next supply pocket). Reward ≈ 0.044; R:R ≈ 2.4–2.7.
• Alternate momentum add: Above 0.685/0.690 with tight trailing, targeting 0.706–0.710, stretch 0.717 (R1).

Confluences (Bullish)

• Reclaim of SMA(10) and SMA(20) with RSI ~56.
• 50% Fib held; 38.2% reclaimed; hourly bull flag under pivot.
• Intraday price above VWAP with constructive volume profile and prior sweep absorption.

Bearish Invalidations

• Lose 0.662 decisively → 0.651 test; loss of 0.647 (50% Fib) reopens 0.639 then 0.625 (61.8% Fib). That would negate the near-term bullish thesis.

24-Hour Probability Map (qualitative)

• 0.662 holds and 0.680 flips to support → 0.693–0.706 test: ~60%.
• Chop between 0.651–0.680: ~25%.
• Breakdown below 0.647 toward 0.625: ~15%.

Bottom Line

• The combination of reclaimed mid-bands, RSI>50, Fib confluence, and an hourly bull flag into a key pivot argues for a tactical long targeting 0.706 over the next 24 hours, provided 0.662–0.665 support holds.