FARTCOIN
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Prediction
BULLISH
Target
$0.462
Estimated
Model
trdz-T5k
Date
2025-10-14
21:00
Analyzed
Fartcoin Price Analysis Powered by AI
Catching the Reflex: Tactical Long off S1 as Fartcoin Stabilizes Above the Capitulation Lows
Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical read on FARTCOIN (USD)
- Snapshot and context
- Current price: 0.4268896
- Date/time: 2025-10-14 20:50 UTC
- Regime: Strong medium-term downtrend since mid-July; capitulation-type selloff on 2025-10-10; subsequent reflex bounce fading today.
- 24h intraday structure (hourly): Lower highs from 0.468→0.439→0.428, with a higher low vs. 10-10/11 lows. Price currently hovering around classic pivot S1 from 10-13, suggesting a decision area.
- Trend analysis (moving averages and structure)
- 5D SMA ≈ 0.455 (from last 5 closes). Price 0.427 is below → short-term bearish bias but close enough for mean reversion.
- 10D SMA ≈ 0.568. Price well below → intermediate bearish.
- 20D SMA ≈ 0.594. Price ≈ -28% under the 20D average → extended to the downside; often mean reverts within a few sessions.
- 50D SMA (qualitatively) far above price due to July–Sep higher prints → dominant downtrend intact.
- Market structure (daily): Lower highs since July; broke 0.60–0.62 support, flushed to 0.366 (close) and 0.1899 low (intraday) on 10-10; rebound to 0.467–0.472 on 10-12/13; now pulling back to test the breakout of the initial bounce.
- Hourly structure: 10-14 saw a morning drop to 0.40 area, rebound to 0.433–0.439, then slip; forming a symmetrical triangle-ish consolidation between 0.40 and 0.468 with sellers active at 0.433–0.439 and 0.468 caps.
- Momentum
- RSI(14) daily (estimated): After the crash, RSI pushed deep oversold (<30) on 10-10/11, then rebounded into the mid/high 30s–low 40s. Today’s pullback likely places RSI around 37–42. This suggests negative but improving momentum; not overbought.
- Stochastic (daily) (qualitative): K recovered from single digits to ~30–40 and is curling; a near-term upturn from oversold is plausible if 0.40–0.41 holds.
- MACD (12,26,9) (qualitative): MACD line remains below zero; histogram turned positive on 10-12/13 with the bounce, but is flattening today. This typically precedes a decision: either a reset (small dip) before another try higher, or a bearish re-accelerate if 0.40 breaks.
- Volatility and bands
- ATR(14) daily (qualitative): Inflated due to 10-10’s outsized range (high 0.6676, low 0.1899). Current ATR elevated, implying wide intraday swings (10–20% moves possible).
- Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mean ≈ 0.594; given recent dispersion, lower band likely near ~0.40; upper band near ~0.79. Price is hugging the lower band zone, which historically favors mean reversion bounces over the next 1–3 sessions unless a fresh catalyst extends the down leg.
- %B likely ~0.15–0.20 → at the lower envelope, supportive of a bounce scenario if supports hold.
- Support/resistance mapping (confluence)
- Key supports:
- 0.324–0.346: 10-11 low zone; “selling climax” area (SC) and immediate follow-through. Major line in the sand for the medium term.
- 0.386–0.406: Pivot S2 from 10-13 ≈ 0.3868; 10-14 intraday low 0.38996; repeated bids around 0.40–0.41. Primary near-term demand.
- 0.427: Classic pivot S1 from 10-13 ≈ 0.4270; current price oscillates near this level.
- Key resistances:
- 0.449–0.452: Classic pivot point (P) from 10-13 ≈ 0.4496; immediate upside magnet if S1 holds.
- 0.457–0.472: 10-12/13 high zone; also near Ichimoku Tenkan estimate (~0.467). Expect supply here on first test.
- 0.485: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7436→0.3245 leg; aligns near the 0.47s resistance band overhead → strong resistance cluster 0.468–0.485.
- 0.53–0.58: 50–61.8% retracement and underside of prior distribution; unlikely in next 24h barring a squeeze.
- Fibonacci analysis (major swing)
- Swing high 0.7436 (10-06) to swing low 0.3245 (10-11):
- 38.2%: 0.4846
- 50%: 0.5341
- 61.8%: 0.5835
- The bounce stalled beneath 38.2% (highs 0.472–0.473), signaling a weak retracement so far. A push to 0.45–0.47 is achievable; a break >0.485 is needed to upgrade the bounce.
- Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)
- Price below Kumo; Kijun (26) likely ~0.68; Tenkan (9) ≈ (HH9+LL9)/2 ≈ (0.7436+0.1899)/2 ≈ 0.4668. Price 0.427 < Tenkan → short-term bearish control. A retest of Tenkan near 0.465–0.468 is a logical upside objective if 0.40–0.41 support holds.
- Pivot points (classic, based on 10-13 H/L/C = 0.4721/0.4094/0.4672)
- P = 0.4496
- R1 = 0.4898, R2 = 0.5124
- S1 = 0.4270, S2 = 0.3868
- Current price is around S1; a typical path is either mean reversion to P (0.45) or continuation to S2 (0.387) if S1 fails. Notably, today’s intraday low kissed S2 vicinity and bounced, strengthening 0.389–0.406 demand.
- Volume/flow
- 10-10 to 10-12 showed very high volumes on the flush then rebound (capitulation + absorption). 10-12 was a wide-range green candle (potential “automatic rally” in Wyckoff terms) with strong volume, followed by moderate follow-through on 10-13 and lighter/indecisive action on 10-14. OBV (qualitative) bottomed and ticked up on 10-12/13, marginally supportive for a stabilization range.
- Wyckoff lens
- Phase A signs: Selling Climax (SC) ~0.3245, Automatic Rally (AR) ~0.472, Secondary Test (ST) appears around 0.389–0.406 today. If ST holds above SC and volume contracts into the middle of the range, Phase B (range-building) could develop with repeated tests of 0.45–0.47. A clean break below ~0.386 would negate and puts 0.35/0.33 back in play.
- Intraday (hourly) tactical signals
- Anchored to 10-14 06:00–10:00 sell leg, a local VWAP proxy sits around 0.43–0.44; price is oscillating under/around it, implying sellers lean at 0.435–0.439.
- Hourly 50EMA (qualitative) near 0.437–0.440 acting as dynamic resistance; reclaiming it opens a run to the daily pivot (0.45) and 0.457–0.468 supply.
- Liquidity pools: Sell-side liquidity below 0.406 and 0.389; buy-stop liquidity above 0.439 and 0.468. A sweep of 0.41–0.40 followed by a quick reclaim is a common spring-like setup.
- Candles and patterns
- 10-12 printed a large bullish range that engulfed the prior day; 10-13 a smaller green; 10-14 forming a red day within the bounce’s range → classic 2-steps-forward, 1-step-back consolidation.
- On the hourly, lower wicks around 0.40–0.41 show responsive buyers; upper wicks 0.433–0.439 show overhead supply. This supports range trading until a catalyst breaks it.
- Scenario probabilities (next 24 hours)
- Base case (~55%): Support at 0.406–0.423 holds; price mean reverts toward 0.449–0.452 (daily pivot), with potential extension to 0.458–0.468 (Tenkan/resistance cluster). Expect intraday range ~0.41–0.46.
- Bear case (~30%): S1 fails decisively; push to 0.389–0.387 (S2), possibly a brief liquidity sweep of 0.38 before bouncing back into the range. Daily close likely around 0.40–0.42 thereafter.
- Bull squeeze (~15%): Strong reclaim of 0.439–0.44 and impulsive break through 0.468; fast probe toward 0.484–0.485 (38.2% Fib). Unlikely without a volume surge.
- Risk/reward and trade construction
- Long bias is counter-trend but leverages:
- Proximity to Bollinger lower band and pivot S1.
- Wyckoff ST behavior above SC.
- Mean reversion tendency when price trades >25% below 20D SMA.
- Optimal long entry: Scale bids 0.412–0.420; a single representative entry at 0.4185 balances fill probability and R:R.
- Targeting: First target at 0.449–0.452 (pivot P), with extension to 0.458–0.468 (Tenkan/resistance band). A take-profit set at 0.4620 captures the mid of the supply zone while front-running overhead offers.
- Invalidation (stop consideration, not part of order output): Below 0.389 (S2) or a decisive hourly close <0.386. That yields a roughly 2:1 R:R using 0.4185→0.4620 vs. a stop ~0.389.
- Synthesis
- The dominant trend is down, but the tape shows signs of capitulation followed by a constructive AR and a likely ST today. With price pressing near S1 and the lower Bollinger band, the balance of probabilities for the next 24 hours favors a tactical bounce toward the daily pivot and Tenkan cluster (0.45–0.47), provided 0.406–0.412 holds on dips. Therefore, a tactical long is favored with a tight invalidation and conservative target under the 0.468 lid.
Prediction for the next 24 hours
- Expected range: 0.406–0.468
- Bias: Upward drift toward 0.449–0.462 if 0.41–0.42 demand holds; failure there likely tests 0.389 before a rebound.
Decision: Buy (long) for a 24h mean-reversion bounce into resistance.