Fartcoin presses R1: Buy the pullback for a run at 0.372

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish with upside skew as intraday momentum, volume, and structure improve while the broader daily trend remains down. Expect a test of 0.362–0.366 first; if reclaimed, momentum extension toward 0.372–0.379 is likely. Downside risk into 0.349–0.346 on pullbacks; deeper support 0.334–0.329.
• Trade plan: Buy the pullback into 0.352–0.355 (limit). First objective 0.372–0.373; optional stretch 0.379–0.384 if breakout strength and breadth persist.

Full analysis (step-by-step)

1. Market structure and trend

• Higher time frame (daily): After the 10-10 capitulation (0.639→0.189 intraday, close ~0.366), FARTCOIN bounced to 0.467 (10-13) and has since made lower highs, then compressed. 10-22 printed a wide-range down day (H 0.366, L 0.321, C 0.329). Today (10-23) is an inside-up recovery day so far, reclaiming the 10-22 midpoint (≈0.3389) and pushing toward the 0.356–0.362 band. Net: higher TF trend still down (below 20–50D MAs likely), but today is a countertrend relief rally within a developing base.
• Intraday (hourly): From 10-22 21:00 close 0.3223, price advanced in a series of higher lows/higher highs: 0.328→0.335→0.339→0.347→0.353→0.359→0.362, with shallow pullbacks to 0.354–0.356. This is a constructive ascending structure, consolidating directly beneath resistance (0.362–0.366), i.e., an ascending triangle-like setup.

2. Key levels (confluence)

• Immediate resistance: 0.362 (today’s intraday high), then 0.366 (10-10 close / repeated supply), followed by 0.372–0.374 (10-19/10-20 closes cluster), then 0.379–0.384 (Fib/Pivot confluence), and 0.395–0.399 (10-21 high/50% of the 10-21→10-22 dump).
• Immediate support: 0.355–0.353 (last pullback lows and 20:00–20:55 closes), 0.349–0.346 (13:00 breakout base / round number shelf), 0.342–0.339 (midday shelf and prior micro-pivot), 0.334–0.329 (10-22 close/pivot region), and 0.325–0.321 (10-22 low zone).

3. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing high 10-21 (0.3988) to swing low 10-22 (0.3212) retracement: • 38.2% ≈ 0.3509 (reclaimed and holding) • 50% ≈ 0.3600 (tagged intraday at 0.362) • 61.8% ≈ 0.3692 (next extension objective)
• Larger swing high 10-13 (0.4721) to swing low 10-22 (0.3212): • 23.6% ≈ 0.3566 (today’s battleground) • 38.2% ≈ 0.3787 (stretch target aligns with R2) • 50% ≈ 0.3966 (upper resistance cluster) Interpretation: Price is wrestling with 23.6%/50% composite retrace levels. A decisive hold above ~0.357–0.360 opens 0.369–0.379.

4. Classical pivots (based on 10-22 H/L/C: 0.3663/0.3212/0.3293)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.3389
• R1 ≈ 0.3566 (now marginally above and being tested)
• R2 ≈ 0.3840 (aligns with 38.2% of the larger swing and 10-21 congestion)
• S1 ≈ 0.3116 Interpretation: Trading above P and probing R1 favors a push toward the next magnet (R2) if 0.356–0.357 holds as support on retests.

5. Moving averages and slopes

• Hourly: Price is above short MAs (e.g., est. 9–21H EMA cluster ~0.334–0.345) and above the 1-day VWAP proxy; slopes are turning positive. Bullish intraday momentum regime.
• Daily: Price remains below longer MAs (20D/50D), keeping the broader regime bearish. This supports a tactical long (not a swing trend reversal yet).

6. Momentum oscillators

• Hourly RSI(14): Gradually climbed with the trend; with sequential higher closes and shallow dips, RSI likely sits low-60s. Not overbought; room to extend to upper-60s/low-70s on a breakout.
• Stoch RSI: Recycled from mid to upper band during consolidations, characteristic of a trend day; can reset with shallow pullbacks without materially breaking structure.
• MACD (H1): Histogram positive; signal line crossover likely occurred during the 0.335–0.340 phase. Momentum pullbacks have been bought. Interpretation: Momentum supports continuation until 0.366–0.372 is tested.

7. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (H1, 20): Price has ridden the upper band from the 0.335 breakout. Standard deviation modest; bands widening slightly post-compression, indicating a potential range expansion. Upper band likely near 0.360–0.364; riding the band into resistance is constructive for a measured next leg.
• Keltner Channels: Price probing outer channel suggests trend continuation; no sign of blow-off.
• ATR (D14): Elevated post-crash; a ±0.035–0.05 day is feasible. From 0.357, upside to 0.372–0.384 or downside to 0.339–0.324 fits ATR.

8. Volume, breadth, and participation

• Hourly volume spikes coincided with up-legs (06:00, 13:00, 17:00, 19:00), while pullbacks posted lighter prints. This is a healthy uptrend signature.
• OBV/CMF proxy: Intraday accumulation bias; no evidence of distribution at highs yet. Interpretation: Demand is supporting higher prices; sellers cap at 0.362–0.366 but are not overwhelming.

9. Pattern diagnostics

• Ascending triangle under 0.362–0.366: Higher lows compressing into a flat ceiling. Measured move from base (~0.349 to 0.362 ≈ 0.013) adds to breakout level (0.362 + 0.013 ≈ 0.375). This projects cleanly into the 0.372–0.379 target zone.
• Potential daily inverse H&S in development: Left shoulder ~0.345 (10-11), head ~0.321 (10-22), forming right shoulder ~0.353–0.356. Neckline ~0.372–0.374. Not confirmed; a daily close over 0.374 would validate a larger base.

10. VWAP/Anchored VWAP

• Intraday VWAP (from 10-22 21:00): Price trades above, with multiple successful retests near 0.346–0.350 earlier; latest candles holding a premium. AVWAP from 10-22 low (~0.321) sits lower, reinforcing bulls control vs. yesterday’s capitulators.

11. Donchian/Breakout context

• 20H Donchian upper ≈ 0.362 (today’s high). A breach and hold opens the 10-19/10-20 highs (0.372–0.374). Stop hunts above 0.366 are common; watch for a break-and-retest pattern to enter or add.

12. Mean reversion vs trend following alignment

• Trend signals (MA stack, MACD, structure) say continue long until the 0.366–0.372 supply is fully tested.
• Mean reversion notes: a dip toward 0.353–0.355 would be a high-odds, lower-risk entry, given proximity to rising short MAs and R1 back-test.

13. Scenario planning (24h)

• Bullish base case (60%): Early retest 0.352–0.355 holds; push through 0.362–0.366; first target 0.372–0.373; optional extension 0.379–0.384 if momentum persists and volume expands on the break.
• Range chop (25%): Ping-pong 0.353–0.366; slow grind, multiple failed squeezes; eventual close ~0.360.
• Bearish risk (15%): Failure at 0.362/0.366; slip under 0.353 opens 0.349/0.346. Only a loss of 0.339–0.334 would flip the 24h bias to short.

14. Risk management and invalidation

• Long invalidation for the next 24h: sustained trade back below 0.349–0.346 (loss of the rising intraday base and VWAP zone). Deeper invalidation: daily close back below 0.338–0.334 (below pivot P and prior day mid).
• Suggested protective stop (informational): 0.343–0.344 (beneath the 0.346 shelf and intraday higher-low structure). Not required by the prompt but prudent.

15. Synthesis and decision

• Confluences supporting a tactical long: ascending triangle beneath resistance, momentum oscillators constructive, trading above pivot P and probing R1, fib/pivot confluence pointing to 0.372–0.384, and healthy volume on advances with light-volume pullbacks.
• Headwinds: Higher TF downtrend and thick supply between 0.366 and 0.398. Hence, favor conservative profit-taking at the first substantial resistance cluster.

Expected path next 24h

• Baseline path: Small dip to 0.354–0.355 → reclaim 0.358–0.360 → breakout 0.362–0.366 → tag 0.372–0.373. Conditional extension to 0.379–0.384 if breakout volume expands and pullbacks remain shallow.

Actionable levels

• Buy zone: 0.352–0.355 (limit into pullback or break-retest of 0.362)
• Take-profit primary: 0.372–0.373
• Optional stretch TP: 0.379–0.384 (if momentum and tape strong)
• Invalidation for the idea: sustained <0.346 (risk of deeper mean reversion to 0.339/0.334)