Fartcoin’s post-crash ignition: buy the 0.40 retest for a run toward 0.44 within 24 hours

Executive summary and 24h call

• Bias: Bullish continuation within a developing post-crash recovery channel. Expect a pullback to retest the breakout zone first, then a push into 0.43–0.45 over the next 24 hours.
• Optimal action: Buy the dip into 0.402–0.406 (broken resistance turned support), targeting a move toward 0.438–0.446.
• Key risk: Failure to hold 0.395–0.401 (38.2% retrace and intraday breakout shelf) would weaken the setup and open a revisit of 0.382–0.386.

Price context and structure (multi-timeframe)

• Long-term: From August highs >$1.00, FARTCOIN trended down into early October (~$0.60s), then experienced a capitulation on 2025-10-10 (day low ~$0.19, close ~$0.366). Since then, a basing structure has emerged with higher lows: 0.329 (10/22), 0.360 (10/23), 0.368 (10/28), and higher highs: 0.382 (10/24), 0.414 (10/26), and now an intraday print to ~0.411 (10/29). Market structure is shifting from distribution to accumulation.
• Daily trend strength: Price now trades above its 5-, 10-, and 20-day SMAs, but remains well below any 50-day reference (long-term trend still down). This is classic early-stage recovery—tactical longs favored, strategic longs still cautious.
• Intraday (hourly): Clean break of an inverse head-and-shoulders neckline around 0.384–0.385 during 10/29 (13:00–17:00 UTC), strong expansion bars with volume into 0.399–0.411, followed by minor consolidation. A retest of the breakout shelf (0.402–0.406) is probable before continuation.

Moving averages and trend filters

• 5D SMA ≈ 0.397; 10D SMA ≈ 0.379; 20D SMA ≈ 0.386. Current price ~$0.410 is above all three: bullish short-term alignment (5>10>20 and price>5).
• Expect the 10D to curl up toward the 20D in the next sessions, adding momentum if price holds >0.40.
• 50D SMA (implied, given August/September prices) sits well above current price, confirming only a short-term bullish phase inside a broader downtrend.

Momentum and oscillators

• 14D RSI ≈ 53 (calculated), a neutral-bullish zone. Plenty of room before overbought; supports further upside after dips.
• Hourly RSI pushed higher during the afternoon ramp; intraday overbought conditions typically resolve via shallow pullbacks in trending tape—hence preference to buy a dip rather than chase.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Histogram likely turning positive after an extended negative phase; bullish crossover risk-on. On 1h, MACD already positive and expanding—momentum confirmation.
• Stochastics (1h): Likely elevated; expect mean-reversion into the 0.402–0.406 area to reset.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR14 (daily, qualitative): Elevated from crash, but recent typical ranges are ~0.03–0.06. Within 24h, an H-L range of ~0.035–0.05 is plausible.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Mid-band ≈ 0.386. Price mid-to-upper band without tag of the upper band—room to extend. Upper band estimated near ~0.46; lower near ~0.31.

Volume, flow, and confirmation

• Post-crash volumes normalized, then spiked today on the breakout hours (notably 18:00–20:00 UTC). Rising price with rising volume is a classic confirmation of demand.
• OBV (qualitative): Rising since 10/22; confirms accumulation.
• VWAP (intraday, qualitative): Price is above session VWAP after the afternoon surge; pullbacks toward VWAP or to the breakout shelf are attractive entries.

Key levels (support/resistance and confluence)

• Immediate resistance: 0.413–0.415 (10/26 close and local supply), then 0.421–0.428 (10/27 high ~0.428). A break-and-hold above ~0.415 opens 0.435–0.445.
• Supports: 0.402–0.406 (today’s breakout shelf and prior R1 pivot), 0.395 (intraday structure pivot), 0.382–0.386 (daily mid-band and prior pivot), then 0.368 (10/28 close/1h base).
• Fibonacci (swing high 0.7437 on 10/6 to crash low 0.1899 on 10/10):
  • 38.2% = ~0.4009 (now reclaimed; should act as support).
  • 50% = ~0.4668 (medium-term target; stretch for 24h but a reference).
  • 61.8% = ~0.5327 (longer-term only if momentum persists).
• Classical pivots (derived from 10/28 H/L/C): P ≈ 0.3832; R1 ≈ 0.4015; R2 ≈ 0.4352; R3 ≈ 0.4535. Price has cleared R1; R2 ≈ 0.435 is the next magnet.

Patterns and measured moves

• Inverse H&S (1h): Neckline ~0.384–0.385; depth ~0.021. Measured target ≈ 0.405–0.406 (hit). 1.618 extension points toward ~0.418–0.420 next; confluence with resistance at 0.415–0.421.
• Elliott Wave framing (daily from 10/22 low 0.329): Wave 1 to 0.382 (~+0.053), wave 2 to 0.368, wave 3 underway. 1.618×wave1 projection from wave2 ≈ 0.453–0.454 (aligns with R3 and below 50% retrace at ~0.467). Within 24h, 0.43–0.45 feasible if momentum persists.
• Candles: 10/29 intraday bullish expansion bars into fresh short-term highs; 10/28 was a small-bodied indecision at support. Sequence favors follow-through after a modest dip.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price likely below cloud (given long-term downtrend) with Tenkan > Kijun and a positive TK cross forming or formed. Bullish but below-cloud = a corrective uptrend; expect resistance at prior supply zones (0.42–0.47).

Regression channel and ADX (qualitative)

• A short-term ascending regression channel from 10/22: midline ~0.395–0.400, upper boundary ~0.420–0.425. We’re near the upper boundary; pullback toward the midline/upper-midline (0.402–0.406) is high-probability before trend resumes.
• ADX (inferred) rising from low levels as trend begins to reassert; supports breakout-progression behavior.

Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Pullback to 0.402–0.406, hold, then leg up to 0.435–0.445. Likely session close around 0.420–0.430 depending on timing of pullback.
• Bullish extension (25%): Minimal pullback; clean break >0.415–0.421 quickly, tag 0.446–0.453 (near R2/R3) before consolidating.
• Bearish fade (15%): Failure to hold 0.401; drift to 0.392–0.395 or 0.382–0.386 to refill liquidity. Larger structure remains intact unless 0.368 breaks.

Risk management and invalidation (operational)

• Invalidation for the tactical long: Sustained trade below 0.395 or a daily close back under 0.401 would negate the immediate breakout thesis.
• Suggested stop (not part of the required fields, but prudent): 0.392–0.395 depending on risk tolerance. This keeps risk ~2–3% versus upside 8–10% to first target, yielding a >3:1 R:R.

Why Buy here (summary of confluences)

• Price > 5/10/20D SMAs with RSI ≈ 53 and positive/expanding momentum.
• Reclaim of 38.2% Fibonacci (~0.401) with immediate pivot confluence and a fresh breakout on rising volume.
• Clear upside magnets at R2 (~0.435) and supply band 0.441–0.447 with measured-move and Elliott confluence.

24-hour price prediction

• Expected intraday low: 0.401–0.406 (retest zone).
• Expected intraday high: 0.438–0.446 (R2 / supply band test).
• Probable settlement zone: 0.420–0.430, assuming typical mean-reversion after expansion.

Trade plan (concise)

• Decision: Buy (long).
• Entry: 0.4045 (buy limit in the breakout-retest band 0.402–0.406).
• Take profit: 0.4455 (below supply and R2/R3 cluster to improve fill odds).
• Optional stop (for discipline): 0.3949 (below retest band and micro-structure).
• Notes: If price instead breaks above 0.415 without dipping, a momentum add-on or alternate breakout entry at 0.416–0.418 is viable, but the core plan prioritizes the dip entry for superior R:R.