Fartcoin’s Fragile Bounce: Short the 38.2% Retrace, Aim for a Break of 0.261

Executive Summary

• Bias next 24h: Bearish continuation after a weak bounce
• Optimal plan: Fade a rebound into 0.273–0.281 with a short; target a break of 0.261 toward 0.245
• Invalidation: Sustained reclaim above 0.292 (61.8% retrace of today’s dump) or hourly close above ~0.300 (structure shift)

Price Context and Structure

• HTF trend (Daily): Strong downtrend since early August (~$1.09 peak to current ~$0.267). Lower highs/lows persist. The Oct 10 capitulation (0.64 → 0.366 close) reset the regime to persistent markdown. Subsequent bounces failed to reclaim the 0.40–0.45 supply shelf; late Oct drifted to ~0.32–0.34 and today broke lower again.
• Today (Intraday 1h): Distribution around 0.305–0.312 in Asia/early EU hours, then a decisive breakdown at 15:00 to 0.269 (large red Marubozu) on elevated volume. Brief reflex bounce to 0.279 at 17:00, then lower lows to 0.261 at 20:00. Current 0.2667 sits just off intraday lows. Market structure is lower-highs/lower-lows with supply overhead in 0.275–0.286.

Support/Resistance (confluence)

• Immediate support: 0.261–0.262 (today’s low cluster and round-number shelf). A clean break likely unlocks 0.248–0.245 next.
• Near resistance: 0.273–0.281 (intraday supply band; aligns with 38.2% retrace of the 0.3125 → 0.261 leg).
• Stronger resistance: 0.286–0.293 (50–61.8% retrace). Above 0.293, 0.300–0.305 is structural resistance (pre-breakdown base/vWAP cluster).

Fibonacci Mapping (intraday swing 0.3125 high → 0.261 low)

• 38.2%: ~0.281 (tagged once; sellers defended)
• 50%: ~0.2868
• 61.8%: ~0.2929 Interpretation: First bounce failed at 38.2%—classic bear control. Expect rallies to stall at 0.275–0.281; deeper retrace to 0.286–0.293 less probable without a catalyst.

Moving Averages

• Daily: Price well below 20D SMA (roughly mid-.30s) and far below 50D SMA (higher still). Persistent bearish alignment (20D < 50D), slope negative → trend-following signals favor shorts on bounces.
• Hourly: Price below 20/50/200EMAs; slope down across stack. Reclaim of hourly 200EMA (near ~0.30) would be needed to neutralize the intraday bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands (1h)

• Price pressed/breached lower band on the dump. With a 20-period mid-band near ~0.301, bands widened—volatility expansion in the direction of the trend. A minor mean-reversion pop toward 0.273–0.281 is plausible, but the mid-band remains distant, signaling rallies likely fade before the mean.

RSI / Momentum

• Daily RSI: Depressed; consistent with downtrend rather than classic single-shot oversold mean-reversion. Oversold conditions have not triggered sustained reversals recently.
• 1h RSI: Oversold on the flush (likely low-20s), modest uptick, but no clear bullish divergence—price made fresh lows with momentum confirming. Bias remains down with only tactical bounces.

MACD

• Daily MACD: Below zero with negative histogram—bearish momentum persists.
• 1h MACD: Deeply negative, histogram flattening mildly post-flush (bounce risk), but signal line still below zero; trend-resumption shorts favored after a weak uptick.

Ichimoku (1h & Daily)

• 1h: Price below cloud; Tenkan < Kijun; lagging span below price and cloud—full bearish stack. Kijun (~0.29–0.30) overhead implies strong resistance if reached.
• Daily: Far below cloud; no edge for bulls yet. Any bounce is counter-trend within a broader markdown phase.

ATR / Volatility

• Daily ATR expanded after the Oct 10 break and remains elevated. Expected 24h movement ~7–12% of price suggests a realistic downside extension to ~0.245–0.248 or a limited rebound to ~0.279–0.286.

Volume, OBV, and VWAP

• Volume: Spike on the 15:00 dump confirms participation and conviction. Subsequent bounce printed lighter volume—typical of bear market rallies.
• OBV (qualitative): Trend lower, no bullish divergence—distribution ongoing.
• Intraday VWAP (session/anchored from breakdown): Price persistently below; rejections near VWAP bands align with 0.275–0.281 resistance.

Market Profile / Liquidity

• Fresh value migrating lower post-breakdown. High-volume nodes formed near 0.268–0.275 (resistance if retested). Low-volume pocket below 0.261 could accelerate price to ~0.245 if 0.261 snaps.

Pattern Analysis

• Bear flag/descending channel: Post-crash consolidation from 0.32–0.34 broke down; intraday forms a tight flag under 0.275. Measured move of the 0.312→0.261 leg (~0.051) projects 0.261–0.051 ≈ 0.210 as an extended target; for 24h, 0.245 is a more conservative objective.
• Failed rally pattern: Bounce capped at 38.2%—textbook continuation setup.

Pivot Points (prior day basis Nov 2: H 0.3393, L 0.3212, C 0.3390)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.3338; S1 ≈ 0.3283; R1 ≈ 0.3464. Today traded well below S1—trend day down. In such regimes, selling into first bounce toward broken supports is statistically favorable.

Wyckoff Lens

• Distribution completed in Oct; transition to markdown Phase E. Today’s breakdown = continuation in markdown. Weak bounces = no sign of absorption; supply remains dominant.

Elliott Wave (tactical)

• Intraday leg 0.312→0.261 resembles wave 3 impulse; 0.271–0.281 area likely wave 4 corrective; a final wave 5 push could target 0.245 in next 24h before a more meaningful counter-trend bounce.

Probability-weighted Scenarios (24h)

• Bearish continuation (60–65%): Fade into 0.273–0.281, roll over, break 0.261; print 0.248–0.245.
• Sideways range (20–25%): Hold 0.261–0.281, multiple rejections, close near 0.265–0.272.
• Bullish squeeze (10–15%): Reclaim 0.286–0.293 (61.8% retrace), run stops to ~0.300–0.305 before stalling.

Trade Plan and Levels

• Bias: Sell strength in a downtrend (trend-following with tactical timing).
• Optimal entry (limit sell): 0.275—inside the 0.273–0.281 supply pocket, just under the 38.2% retracement (0.281) to improve fill probability while maintaining favorable R:R.
• Profit target (24h objective): 0.245—pre-break consolidation-derived target and aligns with projected continuation path. Room to 0.232 if momentum accelerates, but 0.245 is realistic in the 24h window.
• Invalidation: Sustained hourly close above ~0.292 (61.8% retrace) or reclaim/hold above 0.300–0.305 would indicate a structure shift; shorts should be reevaluated.
• Optional stop (risk control, not required but prudent): ~0.293 (above 61.8% retrace and supply shelf), yielding approx R:R ~1:2 from 0.275→0.245.

Timing / Path Expectation (next 24h)

• 0–6h: Drift/bounce toward 0.273–0.279 as momentum cools from oversold.
• 6–12h: Rejection zone engagement; lower highs reassert; pressure back to 0.263–0.266.
• 12–24h: Liquidity sweep of 0.261; break drives to 0.248–0.245, with potential wick extensions below before a later-day stabilization.

Confidence

• Medium-high on directional bias (bearish); moderate on fill of the ideal entry (bounce may under-shoot). If unfilled, an alternate is to scale in on a rejection wick near 0.271–0.273. Core thesis invalid above ~0.292–0.300.

Conclusion Everything aligns for selling a rally: dominant downtrend, failed 38.2% retrace, expanding volatility, VWAP and EMA stacks above price, no bullish divergence, and fresh breakdown of a multi-week base. The highest-probability play over the next day is to short into 0.275 with a target at 0.245, anticipating a break of 0.261 support.