FARTCOIN’s Flat-Floor, Falling-Ceiling: Short the 0.252–0.255 Supply, Target 0.235

Summary of the setup

• Instrument: FARTCOIN (USD)
• Current price: 0.24509
• Intraday structure: Lower highs pressuring a flat floor at 0.239–0.240 → descending triangle on the hourly, typically bearish. Sellers defended 0.252–0.255 repeatedly; quick rejections at 0.254–0.2543 and again after a brief push above VWAP.
• Bias next 24h: Moderate-bearish; base case is a breakdown/sweep of 0.240 with follow-through toward 0.235–0.233. Risk of a short squeeze if 0.255–0.256 is reclaimed with volume.

Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Daily trend: Strong downtrend since the 10/10 rug-candle (close ~0.366 after a low near 0.19). Subsequent lower highs/lows into early November. Price is well below the 20/50-day MAs (est. 20D ~0.36–0.38, 50D ~0.60+), confirming macro bearish.
• Daily key levels: Resistance 0.333–0.345 (prior floor turned ceiling), then 0.302–0.312 (50%–61.8% retrace of 0.3439 → 0.2604 swing). Supports 0.240 pivot, then 0.235/0.233, 0.229–0.231, and pattern-measured 0.214.
• Hourly market structure (last 24h): Lower highs 0.266 → 0.2649 → 0.2596 → 0.2543, with flat support 0.239–0.240. That’s a text-book descending triangle. Height ~0.026 (0.266–0.240) implies measured target near 0.214 if the base gives way (may take >24h to fully realize; first magnet 0.235–0.233).

Momentum/volatility indicators

• RSI: Daily ~low-30s (bearish, not oversold extreme); Hourly ~low/mid 40s, no convincing bullish divergence despite multiple taps at 0.239–0.240.
• MACD: Daily negative and below signal; Hourly flattish under zero—rallies are fading rather than trending.
• Bollinger Bands (hourly): Price rejected near the upper band around 0.254; mid-band ~0.249–0.250 now overhead. Price oscillates toward the lower band after rejection, consistent with a range-with-bearish-tilt.
• ATR/Range: Intraday realized range ~0.239–0.266 (~11% of price). Expect 0.010–0.015 absolute range next 24h with downside skew if 0.240 gives.

Price/volume, VWAP, and order flow tells

• Session VWAP (approx): 0.249–0.250. Price spent most of the session below VWAP; tests above were sold. This favors “sell-the-rip” entries into 0.252–0.255.
• Volume character: Heavier prints on down-swings (e.g., the 20:00 candle surge faded), lighter on upticks—distributional.

Fibonacci and measured moves

• Local swing 0.239 → 0.2543: 61.8% retrace ~0.2479; price is below it at 0.245, confirming weak bounce quality.
• Downside extensions off the 0.254 → 0.240 impulse: 1.272 ~0.235, 1.618 ~0.231—confluence with horizontal liquidity zones.
• Pattern target: Descending triangle height (≈0.026) projects ~0.214 on decisive break; near-term the 1.272–1.618 cluster (0.235–0.231) is the more realistic 24–48h magnet.

Moving averages and Ichimoku

• Hourly EMAs: 20/50 EMA cluster ~0.249–0.251 and above price; rallies into that zone keep failing—ideal short location.
• Ichimoku (hourly, approximated): Price below Kumo, baseline ~0.251, conversion ~0.248. With price under the baseline and cloud, trend pressure remains down; any bounce into base/Kijun is typically a sell in this context.

Pattern diagnostics

• Descending triangle probability skew: Flat base with successive lower highs often breaks lower, especially when VWAP sits above price and rallies are rejected on rising volume.
• Wick behavior: Upper wicks near 0.254–0.255 show supply absorption; downside wicks at 0.240 are getting shorter—buyers losing punch.

24-hour scenarios (with rough odds)

• Bearish base case (~60%): Retest 0.240, breakdown/sweep to 0.236–0.233. If momentum accelerates, extension to 0.231 possible.
• Range case (~25%): Choppy 0.240–0.254 consolidation if 0.240 holds and VWAP caps price.
• Squeeze/invalid (~15%): Clean reclaim of 0.255–0.256 with strong volume opens 0.263–0.266 retest. That would neutralize the short setup.

Trade plan logic (short bias)

• Rationale: Macro downtrend, hourly descending triangle, price under VWAP/EMA stack, failed upper-band tests, weak momentum. Best R:R is to sell strength into 0.252–0.255 supply rather than chase lows.
• Entry: Limit short in the 0.252–0.255 supply pocket (optimal ~0.2528–0.2548). This aligns with hourly EMA/VWAP resistance and recent rejection highs.
• Targeting: First take-profit magnet 0.235 on a base break; extension zones 0.233/0.231 if momentum continues. Measured move 0.214 is a stretch objective beyond 24h.
• Invalidation (not an order but risk guide): A firm hourly close above 0.256 with rising volume would caution exit; a break and hold above 0.263 flips the near-term tape from distribution to repair.

Bottom line

• With structure, momentum, and volume all favoring downside, the higher-probability play over the next 24 hours is to sell a bounce into 0.252–0.255, aiming for a move into 0.235. Manage squeeze risk if 0.256+ reclaims.

Note: This is market analysis, not financial advice. Crypto microcaps are highly volatile; size positions appropriately and use hard stops.