Short the Fib Confluence: Fartcoin’s 0.269 Supply Wall Offers a Clean Shot to 0.242

Summary view

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish. Expect a bounce into 0.266–0.270 to be sold, targeting a retest of 0.250–0.244. Break of 0.274–0.276 invalidates the near-term short.
• Trade idea: Sell the 0.268–0.270 fib/MA/Ichimoku confluence, target 0.242–0.245 with a protective stop above 0.279.

Price action and structure

• Higher-timeframe (Daily): Clear persistent downtrend since mid-Aug with a series of lower highs and lower lows. Major breakdown on 2025-10-10 (0.639 → 0.366), followed by a weak, choppy bear-market consolidation that resolved lower into 2025-11-03/04 (lows ~0.239). Any bounces have been corrective and capped by prior supply shelves.
• Recent swing map:
  • 2025-10-27–10-31: Lower high near ~0.427 → breakdown to ~0.319.
  • 2025-11-01–11-03: Failed bounce to ~0.344 → sharp leg down to ~0.239 (11-04 low 0.23894).
  • 2025-11-05–11-06: Reaction bounce capped at 0.274–0.276, then intraday lower highs 0.270 area, current 0.2587.
• Intraday (1h) 11-06: Range 0.2507–0.270, late-session pop into 0.2589. Structure remains a descending channel with supply above 0.266–0.270.

Key levels

• Resistance: 0.266–0.270 (intraday supply and fib confluence), 0.274–0.276 (11-05 high cluster), 0.319–0.333 (broken base), 0.343–0.345 (11-01–02 pivot).
• Support: 0.255/0.253 (intraday), 0.2507 (11-06 session low), 0.242–0.245 (measured move/Fib), 0.2389 (11-04 swing low).

Moving averages (estimates)

• Daily: Price below falling 20-D EMA, 50-D SMA and well below 200-D SMA; the 20<50<200 bearish stack indicates primary downtrend intact.
• 4H/1H: Price below 20/50 EMAs; 20 EMA under 50 EMA; intraday MA band clustered near 0.266–0.270, reinforcing resistance.

Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) Daily: Low-to-mid 30s after sustained selloff; modest relief bounced but not enough to repair bearish regime. No confirmed bullish daily divergence versus the 11-04 low.
• RSI(14) 1H: Mid-40s after bouncing off sub-30 earlier; momentum reset allows another push down after a rally into resistance.
• MACD Daily: Below zero with shallow histogram uptick that’s already fading—typical weak bear-market bounce.
• MACD 1H: Slightly positive but flattening; vulnerable to a bearish cross if price tags 0.266–0.270 and stalls.
• Stoch 1H: Recovered from oversold and curling near midline—room to roll over on a rally.

Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands Daily: Expanded after the recent break; price riding lower band then mean-reverting toward mid-band and stalling—classic bear trend behavior.
• Bollinger 1H + Keltner: Bands narrowed intraday and sit inside/near Keltner—squeeze conditions suggest a directional move is pending; given trend context, odds favor a downside expansion after a relief pop.
• ATR (Daily, est.): Elevated relative to September but compressing post-crash; 24h move potential ~0.018–0.030 (7–12%) at current price—sufficient to reach 0.242 from a 0.268 entry.

Ichimoku (1H)

• Price below a bearish Kumo; Tenkan < Kijun; Lagging span under price. Kijun/flat levels cluster near 0.268–0.270—magnet for a retest and typical sell zone in downtrends.

VWAP and volume

• Anchored VWAP from the 11-03/04 capitulation low sits near/just above current (~0.262–0.265 on 1H estimate). Price trading below/at this band signals weak demand; rallies to AVWAP commonly fade in bear phases.
• Session profile: Notable 1H volume spike on 21:00 at 0.2589 after a low-liquidity drift—often marks distribution rather than accumulation when below key MAs.
• Volume profile (HTF): Heavy volume nodes up at 0.32–0.40; sub-0.26 area is a low-volume pocket toward the 0.239 shelf—price can traverse quickly once 0.250–0.253 gives way.

Fibonacci confluences

• 11-03 low (0.2389) → 11-05 high (0.2760):
  • 50%: ~0.2575 (around current), 61.8%: ~0.2534, 78.6%: ~0.2460. Price oscillating between 50–61.8% suggests incomplete retrace; break of 61.8% tends to test 78.6%/full retrace.
• 10-31 high (0.3194) → 11-03 low (0.2389):
  • 38.2%: ~0.269, 50%: ~0.279. The 0.269 level aligns with intraday MA/Ichimoku resistance, forming a high-probability sell zone.
• Measured move: The 10-30 to 11-03 downswing projects a symmetrical extension from the 11-05 bounce top toward ~0.242–0.245.

Market patterns

• Bear flag: Post 11-04 bounce into 11-05 created a rising channel that already broke lower intraday; expect the next rally to be sold.
• Descending channel: Rebounds continue to print lower highs. The upper channel boundary intersects ~0.269.
• Liquidity mapping: Resting stops likely above 0.270/0.274. A quick stop-run into 0.274–0.276 would be the pain trade, after which sellers likely reassert unless a strong close above 0.276 occurs.

Elliott wave (tactical)

• From 11-01 lower high: impulsive wave down into 11-04 (wave 3), shallow wave 4 corrective bounce into 11-05 (0.276), wave 5 in progress/ending diagonal structure supports 0.242–0.245 before a more durable bounce.

ADX/trend strength (Daily)

• ADX elevated with -DI > +DI, indicating a trending bearish state. Pullbacks into resistance are favored shorts.

Pivot points (approx., using recent intraday range)

• PP ~0.262; R1 ~0.269; S1 ~0.255; S2 ~0.248. Price is oscillating around PP; R1 aligns with sell zone.

Risk management and scenarios

• Base case (60%): Price bounces to 0.266–0.270, stalls and rolls over to 0.252, extends to 0.244–0.242 into the next 24h.
• Alternate (25%): Sustained squeeze through 0.270 toward 0.274–0.276, then fade back inside range; downside resumption delayed but not invalidated unless 0.276+ holds on a closing basis.
• Bear invalidation (15%): Strong acceptance above 0.276 with 1H close and follow-through to 0.289–0.292; would negate the short setup and flip bias to neutral/constructive short-term.

Confluence check at the proposed entry 0.268–0.270

• 1H 20/50 EMA cluster
• Ichimoku Kijun/flat level
• Fib 38.2% (from 0.319→0.239 swing)
• Prior 11-06 intraday rejection zone
• Pivot R1 band This stacking of signals favors using 0.268–0.270 as an optimal risk-defined short entry.

Targets and invalidation

• Take-profit: 0.242 (front-run the 11-04 low at 0.2389 and the 78.6% retrace from the 11-05 bounce).
• Protective stop (context, not in output fields): 0.279 (above 0.276 high cluster + wiggle room), yielding a favorable R:R (~2.4:1) from a 0.2689 entry to 0.242 TP.

Time-of-day tendencies

• Recent liquidity/vol spikes around 21:00–01:00 UTC; look for the bounce to complete in the late US/early Asia handover, with follow-through selling during London session.

Bottom line

• The primary trend remains down; momentum bounces are failing at clustered technical levels. A tactical short into 0.268–0.270 targeting 0.242 leverages strong confluence and acceptable R:R within the expected 24h ATR.

Note: This is a technical analysis-based trading plan; manage risk and adapt if price accepts above 0.276.