Fartcoin on Fumes: Fade the 0.247 Pop, Target 0.236 Within 24 Hours

Summary view

• Instrument: Fartcoin (FARTCOIN), quote currency: USD
• Current price: 0.23991
• Time horizon analyzed: next 24 hours, with multi-timeframe context (daily and hourly)
• Regime: strong primary downtrend since early October crash, with short-term consolidation forming above 0.233–0.236 support; intraday momentum weak into the close

1. Price action and structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: A pronounced markdown from ~0.99 in late Aug to ~0.24 now. The leg from 2025-10-10 (gap-crash) to present shows lower highs and lower lows. The last several daily closes: 0.3398 (11/10), 0.2929, 0.2801, 0.2671, 0.2333 (11/14), 0.2399 (11/15 intraday). This is a persistent series of lower closes, with 11/14 setting a fresh closing low near 0.2333.
• Weekly context (inferred from daily): A large impulsive down move followed by compressed ranges suggests trend continuation risk dominates until a clear base is built.
• Intraday (hourly last 24h): Range-bound drift with a slight downward bias. Highs clustered 0.246–0.253; lows migrating from ~0.244 to ~0.2399 into the last hour. The market traded below the daily pivot for most of the session, finishing near the session lows — indicative of weak hands into the close and likely follow-through lower unless an early-session squeeze lifts price to resistance first.

2. Key levels (support/resistance, supply/demand)

• Immediate support: 0.2390–0.2405 (intraday prints), 0.2360–0.2370 (hourly demand shelf), 0.2325–0.2335 (11/14 daily low zone; strongest nearby demand)
• Immediate resistance: 0.2440–0.2460 (daily pivot zone and intraday mid), 0.2475–0.2515 (supply block from repeated hourly failures), 0.2560 (R1 pivot), 0.263–0.266 (old breakdown shelf), 0.292–0.300 (major overhead supply from early Nov)

3. Pivot points (floor trader classic) using 11/14 H/L/C = 0.267071/0.232479/0.233301

• Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 0.24428
• R1 = 2P − L ≈ 0.25609; R2 = P + (H − L) ≈ 0.27888
• S1 = 2P − H ≈ 0.22150; S2 = P − (H − L) ≈ 0.20969 Interpretation: Today’s price held mostly below P and failed to approach R1, reinforcing bearish intraday bias. P≈0.244 acts as a magnet/resistance; fades just above P are favored.

4. Moving averages

• Daily EMA(5) ≈ 0.26 (down), EMA(10) ≈ 0.29 (down), SMA(20) ≈ 0.326–0.33 (down). Price (0.24) is well below short and intermediate MAs, indicating strong bearish pressure. Any rally toward 0.26–0.29 is likely to meet supply.
• Hourly EMA(20) hugging ~0.245–0.246, sloping down; price below into the close → bearish microstructure. Interpretation: Trend alignment is bearish across timeframes; short rallies to the 20–50 period averages are attractive sell zones.

5. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): low 30s to high 20s recently; likely near or slightly below 30 on 11/14 and modestly rebounded today, but still bearish/oversold. Oversold can persist in downtrends; any bounce may be corrective.
• Hourly RSI(14): oscillated mid-40s down to mid-30s, ending near 35–40; not yet divergent bullish versus price into the last print. Stochastic on hourly likely sub-30 and curling; can allow a brief mean-reversion pop before continuation lower. Interpretation: Daily oversold argues for bouncy behavior, but hourly momentum into the close favors another probe of support first. Best tactical short is into a bounce toward 0.247–0.249 where momentum should stall.

6. MACD

• Daily MACD: below zero with a long negative histogram since early Nov; histogram contraction is tentative but signal line remains below zero. No confirmed bullish cross.
• Hourly MACD: near/below zero with negative histogram into the final hours; any small bounce can turn histogram less negative, but overall signal remains weak. Interpretation: Bearish bias intact; momentum shifts on hourly likely to fade under resistance.

7. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Daily mid-band ≈ SMA20 ~0.326; lower band ~0.24–0.25; price is pressing the lower band (11/14–11/15). Band ride suggests a trending down move with periodic tag-and-fail bounces. Reversion targets are limited given distance to mid-band.
• Hourly bands narrowed through the session; late-day close near lower band implies either a brief reversion to 0.244–0.246 or continuation grind to re-tag 0.236–0.240. Interpretation: Volatility compression plus trend = likely small bounce then push lower. Short into upper band touches on hourly remains the higher-probability setup.

8. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price far below Kumo; Senkou Span A/B descending; Kijun > Tenkan > price. Chikou well below past price. Full bearish stack.
• Any approach to Tenkan/Kijun (approx high 0.26–0.29) likely sells off absent a strong reversal signal. Interpretation: Bearish regime; rallies are counter-trend and should be sold until a base and bullish cross develop.

9. Volume, OBV, and profile context

• Volume: Elevated during the Oct crash; subsequent downtrend showed rolling lower volume with periodic spikes on down days (11/03, 11/14). The 11/15 session volume lighter, consistent with consolidation near lows rather than aggressive accumulation.
• OBV (conceptually): Down-sloping since early Oct; no decisive positive divergence.
• Volume profile (qualitative): High-volume node near 0.32–0.34 (overhead supply); a low-volume hole exists 0.26–0.30 from a swift breakdown; lighter node 0.24–0.25 suggests price can traverse this range quickly. The strongest nearby node is 0.232–0.236 from recent prints, acting as demand but prone to tests. Interpretation: Supply dominates overhead; near-term demand at 0.233–0.236 is vulnerable to re-tests.

10. Market microstructure and VWAP (intraday)

• Today’s intraday VWAP estimate clustered around 0.245–0.246 early, then price spent most of the afternoon below it, indicating sellers controlled value. Reversions toward VWAP were rejected.
• Tape action: Repeated lower highs 0.2507 → 0.2499 → 0.2491 → 0.2479 → 0.2468 → 0.2444; sellers defended every bounce, finishing at 0.2399. Interpretation: Fading pops toward VWAP/EMA20 remains optimal until VWAP recapture with acceptance is observed.

11. Fibonacci structure

• From 11/10 swing high 0.3398 to 11/14 swing low 0.2333:
  • 38.2% ≈ 0.274, 50% ≈ 0.2865, 61.8% ≈ 0.2999. Price hasn’t reclaimed even 23.6% (~0.258), underscoring corrective weakness. The 0.256–0.259 zone (R1 + 23.6%) is a strong confluence resistance. Interpretation: Any bounce stalling below ~0.256 keeps the downswing intact.

12. Elliott/Wyckoff lens (contextual)

• Post-crash markdown suggests we’re in a late-stage impulse down or an ABC where the C-leg extended. Wyckoff-wise, we may be in an early Accumulation attempt: Preliminary Support/Buying Climax absent; however, a Selling Climax around 0.233 isn’t confirmed (no massive capitulation + Automatic Rally structure). Current action looks more like a weak Secondary Test range 0.233–0.246. Until a Sign of Strength (SOS) and higher lows develop, continuation lower or range drift remains more probable.

13. Volatility and ATR

• Daily ATR contracted from the crash spike; current realized daily range over the last week roughly 0.02–0.05. A 24h move of 0.010–0.020 (4–8%) is plausible absent news; tails to 0.232 and 0.248 are within expected dispersion.

14. Probability-weighted scenarios (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Early light bounce toward 0.245–0.248 (pivot/EMA20/VWAP confluence), then roll over to re-test 0.236–0.233. Range outcome 0.233–0.248; close near 0.236–0.242.
• Bear extension (25%): Quick failure of 0.239–0.240 with momentum push to 0.2325–0.2335; intraday capitulation wick possible to ~0.229–0.231 before rebounding back above 0.235.
• Bull surprise (20%): Strong squeeze through 0.248–0.251 into 0.255–0.258 (R1/23.6% fib). Without follow-through above 0.259, expect sellers to reassert.

15. Trade plan and risk management

• Bias: Sell (short) rallies into 0.247–0.249 zone where multiple resistances cluster (daily pivot just below, hourly EMA20/VWAP, supply block from repeated failures).
• Optimal entry: 0.2472 (limit sell on a mean-reversion pop). This is above current price and within today’s repeatedly-defended intraday supply.
• Take-profit: 0.2360, just above the 0.233–0.236 demand shelf to increase fill probability before a bounce.
• Suggested (not required by prompt) protective stop: 0.2528 (above intraday highs and just under 0.2534 session max), yielding approx R:R ≈ (0.2472−0.2360)/(0.2528−0.2472) ≈ 11.2/5.6 ≈ 2.0.
• Add/scale plan: Consider adding on a rejection wick between 0.2485–0.2510 if volume stalls below R1 0.256, maintaining average entry <0.249.
• Invalidation: Clean hourly close above 0.252–0.253 followed by acceptance above 0.256 (R1) would shift bias to neutral and open 0.259–0.266 test; abandon short if that occurs.

16. Why not buy here?

• Although daily RSI is oversold and a bounce is possible, the primary trend remains down, daily closes continue to make lower lows, and intraday breadth failed to hold above the pivot. The higher-probability, trend-aligned trade is to fade a bounce into resistance rather than attempt bottom-picking at support.

Conclusion and 24h price call

• Expect a small bounce toward 0.245–0.248, then a drift/push lower to re-test 0.236–0.233. Strategy: Sell a pop at 0.2472; target 0.2360 within the next 24 hours. If no bounce materializes and price breaks 0.239 cleanly, consider patience for a weaker-late-session bounce to enter, or reduce the entry to the 0.245–0.246 area while keeping the same target and stop logic.