FARTCOIN is perched on the 23.6% Fib and daily pivot — bull flag coiling for a rebound

Step-by-step multi-timeframe technical analysis for Fartcoin (FARTCOIN)

Snapshot and context

• Current price: 0.335558 (as of 2025-11-27 19:21 UTC)
• 24h delta vs prior daily close (0.352446 on 11/26): approximately -4.8%
• Liquidity/volume: 11/26 daily volume spiked to ~225M (climactic), today’s intraday volume contracting (typical of a bull-flag pullback)

1. Price structure and trend (Daily)

• Regime: After the 10/10 capitulation (intraday low ~0.1899) price based in the 0.21–0.30 area through mid-Nov, then impulsed higher into 11/26 high ~0.3742. Current action is the first meaningful pullback from the impulse leg.
• Higher highs/higher lows emerging since 11/21 (0.2228) → 11/24 (0.2831) → 11/25 (0.2990) → 11/26 (0.3524 close, 0.3742 high). Structure remains bullish while above ~0.312–0.299.
• Moving averages: • 20D SMA ≈ 0.272 (approx). Price well above the 20D mean → bullish momentum regime. • 8D EMA > 21D EMA (recent bullish crossover), both rising. Price stretched above fast MAs, now mean-reverting toward them. • Price is still far below the 50D/200D SMAs (given the Sept highs ~0.8–0.9), so the primary long-term trend is down, but the intermediate trend has flipped up.
• RSI(14) Daily (est.): upper-50s to low-60s after the surge, cooling from short-term overbought → constructive reset.
• MACD Daily: histogram positive and narrowing; signal lines above zero, indicating medium-term upside bias with short-term momentum waning (normal after a thrust).
• ATR(14) Daily (est.): ~0.05–0.06 (heightened volatility). A 1×ATR move from here spans roughly 0.28–0.39 within a day.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ~0.272. Upper band estimated mid-0.34s to 0.35. Yesterday’s close tagged/pierced upper band; today is pulling back inside bands (healthy).

2. Price structure and momentum (Hourly)

• 11/26 21:00 UTC breakout bar to 0.3730 on heavy volume was followed by orderly consolidation; a downward-sloping flag/channel has developed from 0.374 → 0.335, with decreasing volume. This is classic bull-flag behavior.
• Today’s intraday developments: • Early pullback into 0.339–0.343, bounce to 0.348, then drift to 0.335–0.336 into the 19:00–19:18 bars. • Local supports: 0.331–0.333 (multiple touches/holds), then 0.319–0.321 (11:00 washout). Resistance: 0.347–0.352 (supply shelf), then 0.360–0.366 (liquidity pocket), and 0.374 (spike high).
• Hourly RSI/Stoch (est.): RSI in the mid-40s and curling; Stoch oversold/turning up → potential for a push back to mid-range if support holds.
• Hourly MACD: negative but flattening; loss of downside momentum as price compresses at support.
• VWAP/POC: • Intraday VWAP (today) likely around 0.341–0.343; price currently below VWAP → short-term discount within the uptrend. • Two-day volume profile suggests a high-volume node/POC in the 0.340–0.345 zone; price underneath POC often mean-reverts toward it if higher timeframe trend is up.

3. Fibonacci, pivot and confluence mapping

• Swing measure: 11/22 swing low 0.210631 to 11/26 swing high 0.374169 → range = 0.163538. • 23.6% retracement: 0.374169 − 0.236×0.163538 ≈ 0.3356 → CURRENT PRICE sits exactly on 23.6% Fib. Shallow retrace = strong trend if it holds. • 38.2%: ≈ 0.3117; 50%: ≈ 0.2924; 61.8%: ≈ 0.2732. These align with structural supports and rising MAs.
• Classic daily pivot (based on 11/26 H/L/C ~ 0.3742/0.2792/0.3524): • P ≈ 0.3353 (today’s price hugging the pivot) • S1 ≈ 0.2964, S2 ≈ 0.2403; R1 ≈ 0.3913, R2 ≈ 0.4303 Confluence: price resting precisely at the daily pivot and the 23.6% Fib. That is a statistically sensitive decision area.

4. Volatility envelopes and channels

• Keltner Channels (EMA20 with 1.5×ATR): Mid ~0.272; upper boundary roughly mid-0.35s → yesterday’s impulse hit the KC upper band; today’s fade back inside is expected.
• Donchian (20): Upper ~0.374 (new breakout level), lower near the 0.21s. Staying above ~0.312 keeps the breakout intact; below that, momentum degrades toward mid-range.
• Regression channel (last 5 trading sessions): Upward slope; current price near lower half of channel = risk-favorable spot for dip-buys if trend continues.

5. Ichimoku perspective (approximate)

• Price above cloud; Tenkan ~ low-0.30s, Kijun ~ high-0.27s to ~0.28.
• Chikou Span above price/above cloud → bullish backdrop.
• A shallow pullback to Tenkan/near-slope trendline (0.32–0.33) is textbook as a “last point of support” (LPS) in a bullish phase.

6. Wyckoff/Market Profile read

• 11/21–11/24: accumulation range in low-0.20s to high-0.20s.
• 11/26: Sign of Strength (SOS) on outsized volume; immediate consolidation = likely backing up to an LPS.
• Value migration up: POC rising from ~0.30s toward ~0.34s. Price below current value POC typically revisits/rotates up if trend remains intact.

7. OBV/Money flows

• OBV inflected higher since 11/22 and accelerated on 11/26. Today’s contraction does not meaningfully dent the OBV uptrend.
• CMF(20) likely positive on daily due to recent strong closes near highs; intraday CMF neutralizing during flag consolidation.

8. Elliott wave/harmonic framing (heuristic)

• Wave-1: 0.2106 → ~0.299
• Wave-2: deep to ~0.224
• Wave-3: extended to 0.374
• Current: Wave-4 shallow (23.6%) flag. Typical Wave-4 depth is 23.6–38.2% of Wave-3; we’re at the shallow bound. A hold above ~0.331–0.325 keeps prospects for a Wave-5 pop toward 0.38–0.39 (1.0–1.272 extensions) in the next sessions.

9. Key levels and liquidity map (next 24h)

• Immediate support: 0.331–0.333 (hourly base), with liquidity likely resting below equal lows. Expect potential stop-run into 0.328–0.331, then bounce if trend intact.
• Secondary support: 0.319–0.321 (today’s 11:00 low) and 0.312 (Fib 38.2%).
• Structural floor: 0.299–0.300 (11/25 close/round number). Break of 0.299 would likely target 0.292 (50% Fib) and 0.273 (61.8%).
• Resistance: 0.347–0.352 (supply shelf/VWAP-POC zone), then 0.360–0.366 (prior closing spike), and 0.374 (swing high). Above 0.374 opens 0.388–0.392 (measured move/AB=CD) and 0.391–0.430 (R1/R2 pivots) over extended horizon.

10. Strategy synthesis and probabilities (24h horizon)

• Bull case (base case ~60%): The 23.6% retracement at the daily pivot holds (0.335 area). A marginal liquidity sweep to 0.328–0.331 finds buyers; price mean-reverts to VWAP/POC 0.341–0.345, then challenges 0.347–0.352. If volume expands, extension to 0.360–0.366 is reachable within 24h (roughly +9–10% from current).
• Neutral-to-bearish pullback (alt ~30%): Failure to hold 0.331 drifts to 0.319–0.321. A deeper test to 0.312 (Fib 38.2%) remains buyable if reclaimed; otherwise momentum deteriorates and day ends sub-0.33.
• Bear break (~10%): High-volume breakdown below 0.312 opens a move toward 0.300, then 0.292 (50% Fib). This would transition the pattern from bull-flag to range reversion.

11. Risk/reward and trade plan

• Bias: Buy the dip into the 0.328–0.332 demand pocket where multiple supports converge (hourly base, pivot proximity, below-equal-lows liquidity). This aligns with the “flag LPS” idea and preserves favorable R:R against a tight invalidation zone.
• Entry: Staggered limit buys centered near 0.3298 (below today’s clustered lows to capture a potential stop sweep). For this deliverable, we’ll state a single optimal open price.
• Target (24h): First target 0.360–0.366 (pre-breakout close/hot liquidity). Reasonable to front-run with 0.3662 take-profit. Optional stretch if volume accelerates: 0.372–0.374 re-test.
• Invalidation (not part of required fields, but vital): A firm hourly close below 0.318 would negate the flag thesis and risk a slide to 0.300. That gives roughly 0.011–0.012 risk vs. ~0.036–0.040 reward → R:R ~3.0–3.6.

Bottom line and 24h directional call

• The confluence at 0.335 (23.6% Fib + daily pivot) and the developing hourly bull flag with contracting volume favor a buy-the-dip setup. Expect a shallow sweep under 0.333 into ~0.329–0.331 and a rebound toward 0.347–0.352, with a realistic 24h push into 0.360–0.366 if volume returns.