Fartcoin coils above Kijun: bull-flag digestion sets up a squeeze toward 0.37

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical read on Fartcoin (FARTCOIN)

Context and regime

• Data window: Daily from 2025-09-05 to 2025-12-03; intraday (hourly) for 2025-12-03.
• Structural backdrop: A large September peak (~0.97) collapsed into an October/November bear trend, printing a capitulation zone in late Nov (intraday low ~0.1803 on 11/22). Since 11/22–11/24, price has transitioned into a tradable recovery trend with higher highs and higher lows on the daily, now consolidating beneath overhead resistance created by the early-December pop.
• Current price: 0.33532688. The last two sessions show a pullback/consolidation after a strong push to 0.3893 on 12/02.

Market structure and trend

• Daily structure: Clear sequence of higher lows from 0.2106 (11/22 close) → 0.2243 (11/23) → 0.2831 (11/24) → 0.3079 (11/30) → 0.321 intraday (12/03). Higher highs from 0.2878 (11/24) → 0.3742 (11/26) → 0.3893 (12/02). That’s an emerging bullish swing structure within a still-bearish long-term regime (well below the September highs and below long MAs/cloud).
• Hourly (today, 12/03): Lower highs intraday (0.362 → ~0.346 → ~0.336) but defended the 0.321–0.325 pocket and rebounded into the close; this reads as a bull-flag/descending channel consolidation after the 12/02 impulse.

Support/resistance and liquidity zones

• Immediate support: 0.330–0.333 (intraday volume node/VWAP vicinity); 0.321–0.325 (12/03 low cluster and Fibonacci 38.2% from the larger Nov swing, details below); 0.3079 (11/30 close) and 0.2999 (50% retrace of the entire 11/22→12/02 advance).
• Immediate resistance: 0.346–0.352 (flag top and prior congestion), 0.360–0.362 (today’s intraday high), 0.374 (11/26 swing high), 0.389 (12/02 high). Above 0.389 opens 0.417 → 0.457.
• Volume profile (recent): High-volume nodes around 0.333–0.336 and 0.320–0.325; a relatively thin pocket around 0.346–0.352 suggests a quick move if price pushes through 0.346 with volume.

Moving averages (daily)

• SMA(20) ≈ 0.280 (approximate from the last 20 closes). Price at 0.335 is above SMA20, indicating positive short-term momentum.
• SMA(50) (rough) still elevated given September/October prices (likely >0.40–0.50). Price remains below SMA50, confirming that the intermediate trend is not fully reversed yet.
• EMA(9/12/26) (qualitative): Positive slope/ordering since late Nov; today’s consolidation flattens the short EMAs but they remain above the 20SMA. Momentum cool-off rather than trend reversal.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): mid-to-high 50s after the run-up; not overbought, with room to extend higher. RSI regime shift: from sub-40 in mid-Nov to >50 post 11/24—bullish context.
• RSI hourly today: drifted down to mid 40s during the pullback, then stabilized—typical of a bull flag reset.
• Stochastic daily: mid zone, likely crossing down then flattening—consistent with a consolidation within an up-move.

MACD

• Daily MACD: Bullish cross occurred during the late-Nov rally; histogram recently peaked and is compressing—often preceding either a shallow pullback or a continuation burst. No confirmed bear cross yet.
• Hourly MACD: Bearish earlier today on the pullback, now flattening; a turn up on a push above ~0.346 would be a typical flag-break confirmation.

Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Daily: Middle band ≈ SMA20 ~0.28; estimated upper band ~0.38, lower band ~0.18 (wider bands given prior volatility). Price sits in the upper half but not tagging the upper band—signals more room for upside if momentum re-ignites. BB width is still expansive on daily, but intraday bands compressed into the US session—watch for volatility expansion.

Ichimoku (daily, classic 9/26/52)

• Tenkan-sen (9-period mid) ≈ (HH9 + LL9)/2 ≈ (0.3893 + 0.3079)/2 ≈ 0.3486. Price is slightly below Tenkan, indicating a mild consolidation.
• Kijun-sen (26-period mid) ≈ (HH26 + LL26)/2 ≈ (~0.417 + ~0.1803)/2 ≈ 0.2986. Price is above Kijun—bullish short-term bias.
• Cloud: Senkou A ≈ (Tenkan + Kijun)/2 ≈ 0.3236 (projected forward). Senkou B (52 mid) ≈ (0.9686 + 0.1803)/2 ≈ 0.574. Price is above Span A but far below Span B: bullish for the short swing, bearish for the long regime. Span A (~0.324) lines up with today’s defended area—a key support confluence.

Fibonacci mapping

• Swing A (major Nov rally): 11/22 close low 0.2106 → 12/02 high 0.3893 (range 0.1787).
  • 23.6% = 0.3471. 38.2% = 0.3210. 50% = 0.2999. 61.8% = 0.2789. Price tested the 38.2%/nearby zone intraday (0.321–0.325) and bounced—healthy retracement within a bullish sequence.
• Swing B (shorter impulsive leg): 11/30 low 0.3079 → 12/02 high 0.3893 (range 0.0814).
  • 38.2% = 0.3575, 50% = 0.3486, 61.8% = 0.3390, 78.6% ≈ 0.3253. Today’s low 0.321–0.325 kissed the 78.6% zone and reversed—textbook PRZ for a bull-flag pullback.
• Macro retracement (Sep high 0.9686 → Nov low 0.1803): 23.6% recovery ≈ 0.3671—this aligns with the 0.362–0.374 resistance band. Expect supply to appear into 0.367–0.374 on first test.

Volatility and range expectations

• ATR(14) daily (est): ~0.04–0.05. A typical 24h envelope from 0.335 implies ~0.295–0.375.
• Donchian channels (20d): High ~0.3893, low ~0.2106, mid ~0.3000. Price above the mid-channel—bullish tilt.
• Today’s hourly ranges show compression into the US afternoon—a volatility contraction that often precedes a directional expansion in the next session.

Volume, OBV, and VWAP

• OBV (qualitative): Steady accumulation from 11/24 through 12/02. Today’s pullback occurred on mixed/average intraday volume—suggestive of digestion rather than distribution.
• Intraday VWAP (12/03): Estimated around 0.339–0.342. Price into the close is just below VWAP; reclaiming VWAP and holding above would strengthen the long trigger case.
• Volume nodes: 0.333–0.336 (current acceptance) and 0.320–0.325 (earlier acceptance). If price lifts above 0.346, the low-volume pocket may accelerate a move to 0.352 and 0.360.

Patterns and price action tells

• Bull flag/descending channel on the hourly: Measured move potential from the 11/30→12/02 impulse (~0.081) would project roughly 0.081 × 0.5–0.62 on breakout, implying 0.040–0.050 upside from flag base in the 0.33s—i.e., targets 0.37–0.38 line up with prior highs/fib resistance.
• Wick behavior: Today’s defense near 0.321–0.325 (38.2% of the larger swing; 78.6% of the smaller swing; Ichimoku Span A forward) shows responsive buyers at confluence support.
• Liquidity: Clear stop pools likely under 0.321 and 0.3079. On the topside, liquidity likely clustered at 0.352, 0.362, and 0.374/0.389. Breaks into these zones can accelerate on thin order books.

Pivot levels (derived from 12/02 H=0.3893, L=0.3082, C=0.3519)

• Pivot P ≈ (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 0.3498.
• R1 ≈ 0.3914; S1 ≈ 0.3103. Current price is just below P, suggesting a neutral-to-slightly-negative intraday bias unless reclaimed; however, the broader daily swing remains constructive.

Risk factors and invalidation

• Bear case: A decisive loss of 0.321 (38.2% fib) would open 0.3079/0.2999; below that, 0.283 and 0.268. That would morph the flag into a deeper retrace and dull the immediate long edge.
• Bull case: Hold 0.324–0.333, reclaim VWAP and 0.346–0.352, then test 0.360–0.362; a closing break above 0.362 sets up 0.374; stretch target 0.389 if momentum and volume expand.

Synthesis across tools

• Short-term trend: Up (above SMA20, above Kijun, HH/HL structure), consolidating below Tenkan and below intraday VWAP.
• Momentum: Cooling but intact; oscillators mid-range with room for another push.
• Volatility: Contracting intraday, favoring a near-term expansion. Flag structure plus confluence support favors an upside break slightly more than a breakdown.
• Confluence to the upside: Fib PRZ bounce, Ichimoku Span A support, SMA20 > price > Kijun alignment, low-volume pocket above 0.346.

24-hour probabilistic path

• Base case (≈60–65%): Range 0.324–0.352 early; VWAP reclaim and break of 0.346–0.352 triggers a run to 0.360–0.362; continuation probe toward 0.372–0.374 into resistance.
• Alternate (≈35–40%): Fail to reclaim VWAP; drift to 0.330 then liquidity sweep to 0.321; if 0.321 holds, reversion back to mid 0.33s; if 0.321 fails, extension to 0.308–0.300.

Trade plan and execution logic

• Bias: Buy the dip into support or buy the flag breakout, with take-profit into the 0.372–0.374 resistance shelf.
• Preferred entry: Staggered approach—primary limit near 0.331 (within acceptance and above 0.321 support). Alternative momentum entry on a confirmed break/hold above 0.352. For this decision, we select the dip entry to optimize reward-to-risk.
• Take-profit (24h realistic): 0.374 (prior swing high cluster and macro 23.6% retracement neighborhood). This aligns with ATR envelope and measured move of the flag.
• Risk thinking (not part of schema but operationally vital): A protective stop would logically sit below 0.318–0.321 confluence; that frames an attractive R multiple to 0.372–0.374 from a 0.331 entry.

Bottom line

• The multi-tool confluence favors a continuation attempt higher over the next 24 hours, provided 0.321–0.325 holds. Optimal tactic is a buy-on-dip around 0.331 aiming for a push into 0.372–0.374.