Fartcoin coils under 0.41: Dip-buy setup aiming for a breakout retest

Executive snapshot

• Instrument: FARTCOIN/USD
• Current price: 0.3896
• Session context (intraday 12/08): early push to 0.4087, faded to 0.389–0.392, now stabilizing just under the 0.39 handle
• Regime: short-term uptrend emerging from late-Nov base, still inside broader medium-term repair after Oct capitulation
• Bias next 24h: moderately bullish continuation with resistance at 0.406–0.414 and pullback demand near 0.382–0.386

1. Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure: Since the Nov 22 swing low (0.180–0.210 capitulation cluster), price established a rising sequence of higher lows and higher highs: 11/22 low -> 11/26 spike to 0.374 -> pullback -> 12/02 thrust to mid 0.35s -> 12/04 high 0.4037 -> 12/07 high 0.4138 -> 12/08 intraday 0.4087. This is a developing uptrend on the daily with price above the 20D average.
• 4H/Hourly structure: Clear ascending series of lows from 12/01 (0.26 intraday flush) to 12/08. Micro pullbacks are shallow and bought. Intraday today shows a push into 0.406–0.409 supply, then a controlled pullback into prior breakout shelf around 0.389–0.392, consistent with continuation setups (bull flags / ascending triangles).
• Interpretation: Short-term uptrend remains intact above 0.378–0.382. Failure below 0.372 would question momentum but does not break the daily higher-low structure until sub-0.352.

2. Support/Resistance and key levels (derived from the tape)

• Immediate support: 0.386–0.389 (intraday VWAP-1σ band; prior micro base); next 0.382; then 0.375–0.377 (12/06–07 demand cluster); deeper pivot 0.352–0.356 (major daily shelf and neckline).
• Immediate resistance: 0.400–0.406 (intraday supply and failed breakout area); 0.413–0.418 (12/07 high zone and daily supply); extension resistance 0.428–0.435 (upper daily channel/BB context).
• Liquidity pockets: resting offers suspected 0.405–0.409 and 0.413–0.415; resting bids around 0.384–0.386 and 0.376–0.378 from prior acceptance.

3. Moving averages (trend filters)

• 20D SMA ≈ 0.318 (computed from last 20 closes). Price trades well above: short-term bullish.
• 9D SMA ≈ 0.358; 9D EMA likely ~0.368–0.372 given recent strength. Price above both: momentum positive.
• 50D SMA: elevated (legacy data from Sep highs), likely >0.45. Price below: medium-term repair phase but improving breadth.
• Hourly 20/50 EMA slope: both up, with price oscillating just under the hourly 20EMA (~0.398) after a push–pull day. Expect mean-reversion bounce if 0.386–0.389 holds.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): estimated mid-50s to low-60s (neutral-bullish). Not overbought; room to extend.
• Hourly RSI(14): post-pullback ~45–50. A bullish reset from earlier overbought. Supports a fresh impulsive leg if price reclaims 0.398–0.400.
• Stochastics (H1): likely cycling up from mid-zone after the fade, aligning with a buy-the-dip setup.

5. MACD

• Daily MACD: bullish cross occurred in early Dec; histogram positive but not stretched. Suggests trend continuation, not exhaustion.
• Hourly MACD: rolled over during the afternoon fade; histogram contracting toward zero. A small uptick on a 0.398 reclaim would be a classic long trigger confirmation.

6. Volatility/ATR and expected range

• 14D ATR ≈ 0.05–0.06. Typical daily realized range recently ~0.04–0.06.
• Implied next 24h range (from current 0.3896): 0.372–0.418 baseline (ATR-weighted), with tails 0.368 and 0.424 on event spikes.

7. Bollinger Bands

• Daily BB: mid-band near the 20D SMA (~0.318), upper band estimated ~0.438. Price well below upper band, so no daily squeeze/band-walk exhaustion. Scope to test 0.41–0.43 without band stress.
• Hourly BB(20,2): mid ~0.398, lower ~0.386. Price is hovering just above the lower band after a pullback, typical mean-reversion bounce zone toward mid-band 0.398–0.401.

8. Volume, VWAP, and profile

• Intraday volume concentrated on the morning thrust to 0.408 and the subsequent pullback. That distribution left a high-volume node (HVN) near 0.398–0.401 and a secondary node 0.389–0.392.
• Session VWAP (approx) ~0.397–0.399. Price below VWAP but above lower band demand. Under-VWAP with rising daily trend often produces afternoon/evening reversion toward VWAP once sellers tire.
• Anchored VWAP from the 11/22 capitulation low sits meaningfully below current price (low 0.32s), confirming broader accumulation and long-sided cost basis advantage.

9. Fib analysis (real-world anchors)

• Swing A: 12/01 low 0.260 -> 12/07 high 0.4138. Pullback zones: 23.6% ≈ 0.376, 38.2% ≈ 0.350, 50% ≈ 0.337, 61.8% ≈ 0.325. Price held above 23.6% (0.376) on all pullbacks: strong trend signature.
• Micro swing: 12/08 low 0.3698 -> 12/08 high 0.4087: 50% ≈ 0.3892 (current), 61.8% ≈ 0.3866. Price sitting exactly at 50–62% golden pocket intraday: classic dip-buy zone for a retest of the high.

10. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price likely below the long-lagging cloud due to Sep/Oct overhang; Tenkan > Kijun and price > Tenkan typically during short-term uptrends. Chikou still approaching prior price action but with room. Interpretation: early-stage bullish reversal within broader repair, cloud resistance above 0.44–0.48 not in play for the next 24h.

11. Wyckoff/Market cycle read

• Post-October capitulation, the Nov range was an accumulation base. The 12/01 flush to 0.26 resembles a spring/shakeout with LPS in early Dec (0.35–0.37). Current movement is a sign of strength (SOS) with a backup-to-the-creek to ~0.389–0.392. Expect continuation to test and potentially break the 0.413–0.418 supply.

12. Elliott wave sketch (near-term)

• From 12/01: Wave 1 to ~0.380 (12/04), Wave 2 to ~0.370 (12/07), Wave 3 underway into 0.408 (12/08), micro Wave 4 pullback to 0.389 now, setting up Wave 5 test of 0.413–0.418. Invalidation for this micro count sub-0.382.

13. Statistical/mean-reversion context

• 20D mean ≈ 0.318, current z-score (assuming ~0.06 σ) ≈ +1.2–1.3: elevated but not extreme. Odds favor trend persistence over immediate reversal in the next session.
• Autocorrelation of returns (qualitative) has been positive in early Dec: green days tend to follow green closes when above the 20D mean and after shallow pullbacks.

14. Candlestick/price-action tells

• Recent daily candles: 12/04 strong body up; 12/05–06 digestion; 12/07 upper wick at 0.413 but higher low; 12/08 intraday pinning near the 50–62% retrace of the day’s range—bullish if reclaimed 0.398 with momentum.
• On the hourly, the selloff lacked range expansion and volume follow-through; buyers continue to defend higher lows.

15. Order flow/liquidity inference

• Likely liquidity resting above 0.409–0.414 (prior highs). A sweep through that pocket can accelerate to 0.418–0.421 via stop-runs.
• On the bid, layered interest at 0.386–0.389 and 0.375–0.378, aligning with BB lower band and prior acceptance.

16. Risk factors and invalidation

• Break and hold below 0.382 turns the intraday setup into a deeper pullback, risking a test of 0.375; sub-0.372 opens a path to 0.365 and the major pivot 0.352.
• Macro tape risk remains: broader crypto beta or headline flow can expand realized volatility to the ATR tail (±0.06–0.07).

17. Scenario map (next 24 hours)

• Bullish continuation (55%): Hold 0.384–0.389, reclaim VWAP ~0.398, push into 0.406 and then 0.413–0.418. Partial fills just below 0.414 prudent.
• Range (35%): 0.382–0.406 oscillation; VWAP magnet. Good for tactical scalps but requires patience on entries near edges.
• Bearish break (10%): Lose 0.382, slide to 0.375–0.377; extreme tail toward 0.368 only on strong negative catalyst.

18. Confluence summary for a long

• Structure: higher lows/higher highs; price at a fib golden pocket of today’s range.
• Momentum: daily MACD positive, RSI not overbought; hourly reset to neutral.
• Volatility: within typical ATR; upside to resistance fits one ATR.
• Bands/VWAP: price near lower hourly BB, under-VWAP with trend tailwind—classic mean-reversion + momentum combo.
• Levels: defined invalidation just below 0.382 allows favorable R:R.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Entry: Staggered buy between 0.3840–0.3870; single-print open at 0.3860 acceptable.
• Target (TP): 0.4138 (front-run of 12/07 high 0.4138/0.414 area); stretch 0.418 if momentum accelerates.
• Invalidation/stop (not requested but prudent): 0.3740 (below 12/06–07 demand). Primary R:R ≈ (0.4138–0.3860)/(0.3860–0.3740) ≈ 2.3:1.

24-hour price prediction

• Expected path: firming above 0.386, VWAP reclaim, probe 0.400–0.406; if offers thin, continuation to 0.413–0.414 with wicks possible to 0.416–0.418. Base-case range: 0.382–0.416; modal close near 0.405–0.412.

Conclusion

• Bias: Buy dips. The confluence of intraday fib support, hourly BB location, constructive daily momentum, and defined risk beneath 0.382 favors a long targeting a retest of 0.413–0.414 within 24 hours.