Fartcoin coiled under pivot: bull-flag reset eyes 0.40+ within 24 hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish (buy-the-dip setup). Expect a path of dip-to-pivot reclaim, then test of 0.368–0.381 (daily pivot to R1), with extension toward 0.399–0.406 if momentum persists. Primary support 0.346–0.345; invalidation on sustained break below 0.341.

1. Multi-timeframe read

• Daily trend: Since the 11/14 swing low at ~0.2333, price has made higher lows and (so far) a higher high at 0.4138 (12/07). Pullback 12/08–12/10 held above key retracement zones, keeping the short-term uptrend intact.
• Hourly structure (12/11 sessions): After a morning dip to ~0.338–0.340, bulls reclaimed 0.35 and pushed to 0.359–0.360 by 19:33. The 18:00–19:00 hours printed strong green candles that engulf prior supply—classic intraday momentum shift.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• SMA(20) daily ≈ 0.327 (computed from last 20 closes). Price 0.360 > SMA20: short-term bullish.
• SMA(50) daily (approx) ~0.335–0.345: price above—supports improving intermediate trend.
• EMA(12/26) daily: With the multi-week upswing from 0.233 to 0.414 then shallow pullback, EMA12 is above EMA26; histogram has recently contracted (cooling momentum), but still near/above zero—constructive if price holds above ~0.35–0.346.
• Hourly EMA200 (approx) ~0.347: current price above—bullish intraday bias.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 51 (derived from 14-period gains/losses): neutral-to-slightly bullish. Headroom to the upside (far from overbought).
• Stochastic (14,3,3) daily (approx): mid-zone (~45–55). A turn up from mid-range typically aligns with continuation after a bull-flag pause.
• MACD daily: Positive but narrowing histogram over the last few sessions; today’s intraday rebound suggests a potential re-expansion if price can reclaim the daily pivot (~0.3675) and close above it.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~0.038. Implies typical 24h swing of ~±0.038 around prevailing price.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Mid ~0.327; lower ~0.237; upper ~0.417 (approx). Price sits in the upper half but below the upper band—room to push toward 0.39–0.41 without immediate band stress.
• Keltner Channels (EMA20 ± 1.5*ATR; approx): Center ~0.327; upper ~0.384; lower ~0.270. Current ~0.360, just below the upper KC—typical of trending markets after a brief pullback.

5. Market structure, patterns, and key levels

• Pullback character: From 12/07 high 0.4138 down to 12/10 close 0.3548. That’s a 14% retrace—shallow relative to the Nov–Dec leg.
• Fibonacci (low 0.2333 on 11/14 to high 0.4138 on 12/07):
  • 23.6%: ~0.3712
  • 38.2%: ~0.3449
  • 50%: ~0.3225
  • 61.8%: ~0.3020 Price bounced above 38.2% and is rotating just under 23.6%—healthy bull-market retracement behavior.
• Classical pivot levels from 12/10 (H=0.39327, L=0.35441, C=0.35484):
  • Pivot P: ~0.36751
  • R1: ~0.38061
  • R2: ~0.40637
  • S1: ~0.34175
  • S2: ~0.32865
  • S3: ~0.30288 Current 0.360 is below P and above S1; intraday rotated up from below to challenge P next.
• Horizontal S/R zones (clustered from the tape):
  • Resistance: 0.368–0.372 (pivot/23.6% Fib), 0.380–0.382 (R1, prior supply), 0.393–0.409 (upper supply shelf), 0.413–0.419 (recent swing highs/R3 region).
  • Support: 0.354–0.356 (today’s reclaim area), 0.346–0.345 (intraday basing), 0.341–0.342 (S1), 0.333–0.336 (11/30–12/01 shelf), 0.320, 0.308.
• Pattern context: A compact bull flag/descending channel from 12/07 high to 12/10 low, with 12/11 intraday showing a turn. A break-and-hold above ~0.368 would confirm a flag breakout toward 0.380–0.406.

6. Volume and breadth

• Volume trend: 20-day participation healthy (roughly ~160–190M). Large up-volume prints on 12/01–12/04 supported the markup leg; pullback volumes decelerated vs the surge—typical of corrective phases.
• OBV (qualitative): Rising since late November; no material distribution signal during the latest dip—accumulation bias intact.
• Intraday 12/11: Stronger volume accompanies the bounce from ~0.341 to ~0.353–0.360 in the US session, consistent with a demand-led reversal attempt.

7. Ichimoku overview (daily; approximations)

• Tenkan (9) ~0.36; Kijun (26) ~0.34–0.345; price ~0.360: above Kijun, flirting with Tenkan. If Tenkan turns up and price closes above it, follow-through often targets prior span highs.
• Cloud (Senkou span A/B): Likely flat-to-rising around mid-0.34s to mid-0.35s given recent ranging; price either at top of, or slightly above, a thin cloud—easier for bulls to extend.

8. Wyckoff read

• Phase: After an accumulation from 11/14 to 11/26 (higher lows, improved volume), an SOS (sign of strength) occurred into 12/07, followed by a low-volume backup (pullback) to support. Today’s intraday strength is characteristic of a Backup-to-Edge (BUEC) completing—setting up for another markup attempt.

9. Elliott wave sketch (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 11/14 → 11/26 up to ~0.352
• Wave 2: 11/26 → 11/30 pullback to ~0.308
• Wave 3: 11/30 → 12/07 push to ~0.414
• Wave 4: 12/07 → 12/10 pullback to ~0.355
• Implication: Wave 5 attempt could begin if 0.368–0.372 breaks/holds, projecting tests of 0.399–0.414 and possibly a marginal HH.

10. Statistical/mean-reversion context

• 5-day SMA ≈ 0.3704; price ~0.360 is ~-2.8% below the 5SMA—near-term mean reversion favors a push back toward ~0.368–0.372 pivot band.
• Z-score vs 20-day mean: (0.360–0.327) / ~0.045 ≈ +0.73σ: modestly positive—not stretched.

11. Risk mapping and expected path next 24h

• Base case (60%): Early dip toward 0.354–0.356 finds buyers; reclaim of 0.3675 pivot and push into 0.375–0.382 (R1). If momentum expands, tag 0.399–0.406 (R2 vicinity) with wicks.
• Pullback case (25%): Lose 0.354; test 0.346–0.345. Holding above S1 (0.3417) likely rebuilds and reattempts pivot later.
• Bear break (15%): Clean break and acceptance below 0.341 fails the structure, opening 0.333–0.328 (S2). This would negate the immediate long setup.

12. Confluence snapshot

• Above SMA20/SMA50 and hourly EMA200; RSI mid-50s; price bounced off the S1 region; bull-flag structure pending breakout; OBV trend constructive; pivot math points to 0.381/0.406 as upside magnets if 0.368 gives way. Confluence supports a tactical long with tight invalidation under 0.341–0.346 support.

Trade plan (tactical, 24h horizon)

• Entry: Prefer a buy-the-dip limit near 0.356 (prior micro base and today’s reclaim area). If missed, secondary trigger on breakout/hold above 0.368 pivot.
• Target: 0.402 (just under R2 cluster 0.406 and prior supply 0.403–0.409) to improve fill odds.
• Invalidation/stop (not part of output fields, but critical): 0.3415 (just below S1 and today’s higher-low structure). Risk ~0.0145 vs reward ~0.046—R:R ≈ 1:3.2.

Bottom line

• The balance of evidence (trend filters, pivot/Fib confluence, intraday reversal, constructive volume) favors a long with a dip-buy bias and a 24h target into the low 0.40s, barring a breakdown below 0.341.