FET: Sell the Bounce — Failed Breakout, HVN Flip, and C-Wave Targeting 0.25x

Executive summary and 24h path

• Base case (60%): After a sharp “air-pocket” selloff to 0.276, expect a reflex bounce toward 0.286–0.292 (supply from short-term moving averages and prior HVN), failure there, and continuation lower into 0.258–0.262. Probable session range: 0.252–0.296.
• Bear case (25%): Momentum accelerates through 0.271 swing low, quick liquidity flush into 0.246–0.252, then stabilizes. Range: 0.238–0.285.
• Bull case (15%): Strong mean-reversion backed by rising volume reclaims 0.300–0.305; squeeze extends to 0.312–0.318 before supply caps. Range: 0.276–0.318.

Market structure and trend

• Regime: Post-shock downtrend since early October (structural lower highs, lower lows), punctuated by a large-volume pop on Nov 7 and a two-day rally Nov 18–19 that failed to flip the trend. Current price 0.275978 sits beneath short-term MAs and the 20-day mean, confirming bearish bias.
• Structure levels (daily closes/highs/lows from provided data): • Recent swing high cluster: 0.334–0.350 (Nov 19 high 0.3345, Nov 10 close 0.3507; heavy supply). • Local pivot band: 0.286–0.300 (Nov 15 close 0.2860; 0.3000 round and 11/18 close). • Key swing low: 0.2711 (Nov 14 close), with subsequent local supports 0.268, 0.260, 0.246, 0.236, 0.224.
• Current state: Price failed a short-term breakout attempt on Nov 19 (higher high vs Nov 18 but still lower than earlier highs), then slipped back below the 0.29–0.30 value area. That failure typically invites a retest of the prior base (0.268–0.273), with risk of undercut.

Moving averages and mean reversion

• SMA(5) ≈ 0.291 (avg of last 5 closes: 0.2860, 0.2735, 0.2673, 0.3001, 0.3293). Price 0.276 < SMA5: near-term momentum bearish.
• SMA(10) ≈ 0.301 (computed from last 10 closes Nov 10–19). Price below: short-term trend down.
• SMA(20) ≈ 0.284 (sum of last 20 closes ≈ 5.6866 / 20). Price slightly under: suggests modest negative deviation; mean-reversion pop to ~0.284–0.290 is plausible, but trend pressure persists.
• SMA(50) (qualitative): Heavily skewed higher by Aug–Sep values (>0.55), still well above price, anchoring medium-term downtrend.
• EMA dynamics (qualitative): EMA12 < EMA26 post-gap; Nov 18–19 cross-up attempt likely failed. Expect renewed EMA bear cross pressure. Interpretation: With price under 5/10/20-day averages and those MAs flat-to-down, rallies into 0.286–0.301 should find supply.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) (approx): Pre-drop RSI rebounded into low/mid-40s on Nov 18–19; today’s -16% air-pocket likely pushes RSI back toward low-30s/upper-20s (oversold zone). Oversold in a downtrend typically yields weak bounces that fail below 40–50 RSI resistance.
• Stochastic (approx): In/near oversold (<20), but can remain pinned during trend moves; look for shallow bull crosses to sell into.
• MACD (12/26/9) (qualitative): Nov 18–19 uptick likely created a tentative bullish turn; today’s slide should flatten/roll MACD down, risking a new bearish signal line cross below zero. Interpretation: Momentum favors shorting bounces rather than fading into strength; expect a brief oversold pop then continuation.

Volatility and range

• ATR(14) (approx): ~0.028–0.035 given typical daily ranges and recent spikes. One ATR move from 0.281 entry targets ~0.255–0.253, aligning with 0.252–0.260 support cluster.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) (approx): Mid ≈ 0.284; stdev ≈ 0.045 ⇒ bands ≈ [0.194, 0.374]. Price near lower-middle band: room both for a small mean-reversion bounce and for further bleed; not an exhaustion print yet.

Volume, participation, and flow

• Volume spikes: • Oct 10 capitulation and subsequent high-volume regime signaled structural repricing lower. • Nov 7: massive volume upthrust to 0.444 high; bull trap characteristics as price could not sustain >0.37–0.38. • Nov 18–19: rising volumes on up days, but absence of breakout >0.337–0.350 indicates supply dominance at higher levels.
• OBV (qualitative): Improved on Nov 18–19, but today’s drawdown likely erases part of that accumulation, keeping OBV below November’s early spikes. Net effect: distribution at 0.30–0.33.
• Volume profile (visual inference): HVN/POC region around 0.29–0.30; price has fallen back below, turning that node into resistance. Interpretation: Supply heavy into 0.29–0.33; responsive sellers likely to fade bounces.

Fibonacci mapping

• Swing measured: Nov 7 spike high 0.444 to Nov 14 swing low 0.271 (range 0.173). • 23.6%: 0.3118 (retested Nov 18) • 38.2%: 0.3371 (tagged Nov 19 high 0.3345) • 50%: 0.3575 (untouched; strong resistance) • 61.8%: 0.3780
• Current price has rejected at 0.337 (38.2%), typical for bear-market bounces. Loss of the 0.286–0.300 retrace zone points back to the 0.271 base and, if broken, extension toward 0.246–0.252 (confluent with prior horizontal supports).

Support/resistance map (confluence)

• Resistance stack above: 0.286–0.292 (SMA5/Tenkan-like zone), 0.300–0.305 (round number + HVN), 0.311–0.318 (Fib 23.6% + recent supply), 0.334–0.337 (Fib 38.2% + Nov 19 high), 0.350–0.351 (Nov 10 close), 0.364–0.369.
• Support ladder below: 0.273–0.276 (current area; Nov 14/16–17 cluster), 0.268–0.270 (micro shelf), 0.260–0.262 (daily lows cluster), 0.246–0.252 (Nov 1–3/8–9 reactions), 0.236, 0.224–0.232. Interpretation: Clean downside air pockets once 0.271 gives way; expect bids to appear 0.258 then 0.248–0.252.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price beneath cloud; Span A/B far above price; Kijun ~0.30 and Tenkan ~0.286 area. With price extended below Kijun, mean reversion to 0.29 is possible, but baseline and cloud act as overhead supply. Chikou would be below price/structure, confirming bearish regime.

Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• Potential ABC from Nov 7: • A: 0.3648 close (Nov 7) to 0.2711 (Nov 14). • B: rebound to 0.3345 (Nov 19 high; near 38.2%). • C: underway; equality with A from 0.3345 projects ≈ 0.240 (0.3345 - 0.0938). Primary C target zone aligns with 0.236–0.246 supports. Interpretation: Tactical short until 0.300–0.305 reclaimed; C-wave target 0.240–0.246 offers medium-risk take-profit candidates.

Pattern diagnostics

• Descending channel since early November (lower highs at ~0.402, 0.388, 0.357, 0.334).
• Failed breakout Nov 19 (couldn’t clear 0.337/0.350), followed by immediate selloff: classic bull trap → continuation.
• Notable “air pocket” rather than formal gap (crypto trades 24/7), but the behavior mimics a gap-down open with immediate supply overhead.

Stat/arbitrage cues

• Reversion probability to the 20D mean (0.284) within 24h is moderate, but mean often acts as resistance in downtrends; expectancy favors selling into that reversion rather than fading it.
• One-ATR move below likely within 24h given recent realized ranges and increased participation.

Scenario tree and triggers

• Short trigger preference: • Optimal: Short a bounce into 0.281–0.292 (ideally ~0.281–0.286 first test) where micro-resistance and short-term MAs cluster. • Alternative: Breakdown add/enter on firm rejection under 0.271 retest with rising sell volume.
• Downside objectives in next 24h: • TP1: 0.262–0.258 (first liquidity pocket). • Stretch TP: 0.252–0.248 (Fib confluence and prior shelf).
• Invalidation for the 24h short idea: Sustained reclaim and hold above 0.301–0.305 (hourly closes) with rising OBV; that would shift bias to range recovery up to 0.312–0.318.

Risk management notes (for context)

• Given ATR ~0.028–0.035, a protective stop for a tactical short set above 0.301–0.305 offers ~0.020–0.030 risk vs ~0.020–0.030 reward to TP1 and ~0.030–0.035 to TP2, delivering acceptable 1–1.5x R within 24h. Larger swing to 0.246–0.240 improves R materially if momentum persists.

Synthesis and 24h outlook

• Confluences (trend under MAs, failed Fib 38.2% retest, HVN flip to resistance, renewed downside momentum) favor selling bounces. Expect initial mean-reversion to 0.286–0.292 to encounter supply, then lower lows into 0.262–0.258; a deeper extension to ~0.252 is feasible if 0.271 is decisively lost.

Actionable plan

• Decision: Sell (Short position).
• Optimal open: Place a limit near 0.281 to capture the first reflex bounce without overreaching into the thicker 0.286–0.292 band.
• Take profit: 0.255, aligning with one ATR lower from entry and just above the 0.252 shelf to improve fill odds within 24h.
• Monitoring: If price immediately slices through 0.271 with expanding volume before filling the bounce, re-anchor entry on a weak retest of 0.271–0.273 as resistance.

Price prediction next 24 hours

• Likely path: 0.2759 → bounce 0.281–0.290 → roll over → 0.262–0.258, with potential wick to 0.252 if liquidity clears. Failure of sellers to defend 0.300–0.305 would invalidate the near-term short thesis and open a squeeze toward 0.312–0.318.