FET coiled, broke out, and is primed for a VWAP retest before a 0.236–0.238 push

Summary of the market state and bias

• Market regime: After a multimonth drawdown and capitulation in October/November, FET carved out a broad base through December and is attempting a short-term trend reversal. The last 24–48 hours show improving momentum and participation.
• Time frames used: Daily, 4h, 1h (provided intraday), with a focus on the next 24 hours.
• Bias for next 24h: Moderately bullish with a preference to buy pullbacks into support rather than chase strength.

1. Price structure and market profile

• Higher lows emerging: Daily sequence from 12/18 low (≈0.1952) to 12/31 low/close (≈0.1986) to 1/1 close (≈0.2134) and today’s push to ≈0.2287 shows constructive higher-lows and a minor higher-high vs. the 12/27 close (≈0.2178).
• Breakout retest context (hourly): A compact ascending triangle formed on 1H with resistance around 0.222–0.224. The breakout through 0.222–0.224 at 16:00–17:00 UTC carried to 0.2287, then a minor backfill to 0.2259, closing strong at 0.2287 (21:00–22:00). Expect a classic pullback/retest towards the breakout zone/VWAP cluster before attempting 0.231–0.236.
• Key nearby levels • Supports: 0.221–0.224 (hourly VWAP/POC cluster and breakout retest), 0.217–0.218 (Fibo 38.2% of 12/31→1/2 impulse), 0.213–0.214 (former neckline/50% retrace), 0.210 (61.8% retrace), 0.205, 0.1986 (structural). • Resistances: 0.229–0.233 (supply shelf from early Dec), 0.240–0.243 (Dec range cap), 0.252–0.258 (late Nov supply), 0.267, 0.275–0.28.
• Volume profile: Heavier acceptance around 0.209–0.214 from prolonged December trade; a relative low-volume pocket 0.224–0.233 can permit swift price discovery up into 0.231–0.236 if buyers maintain control.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily 5/10/20 SMAs (approx): 5D ≈0.2087, 10D ≈0.2094, 20D ≈0.2139. Current price ≈0.2287 > all three: short-term trend up, momentum building.
• Daily 50SMA (approx): Likely in the 0.26–0.28 zone from the Nov range; price remains below it: medium-term trend still down. This argues for tactical longs rather than swing conviction until 50SMA is reclaimed.
• Crossovers: Short-term (5>10>20) conditions are aligning bullishly; a sustained close above the 20SMA with rising volume is often a precursor to testing the 50SMA in subsequent sessions (beyond 24h).

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: Recovering from mid-30s in mid-Dec to neutral-bullish now (estimate mid-50s), confirming improving momentum but not yet overbought. Bias: room to extend to upper-50s/low-60s in 24h.
• RSI(14) hourly: Entered strong-bull regime (>60–70) during the breakout; a pullback to 45–55 on a retest around 0.221–0.224 would be healthy before another push higher.
• Stochastic (daily/hourly): Fast K on 1H near 80–90 following the run, favoring a small consolidation/pullback first; daily Stoch curling up from mid-range supports continuation after shallow dips.

4. MACD

• Daily MACD: Histogram turning positive with the signal-cross likely or just triggered; bullish early-stage inflection consistent with base-to-trend transition.
• Hourly MACD: Positive and extended; ripe for minor mean reversion towards the 0.221–0.224 area before resuming higher.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~0.010–0.015. A typical single-day swing can be 4–7% around current price.
• Implication for next 24h: From 0.2287, an ATR projection implies 0.221–0.222 on the downside and 0.236–0.241 on the upside are reachable without an abnormal volatility shock.

6. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Daily: Mid-band ≈ 20SMA ≈0.2139. Current price rides above the mid-band and approaches the upper band (likely ~0.23–0.235). Price riding the upper band typically signals trend continuation; initial taps often lead to brief consolidation before the next extension.
• Hourly: Price hugging upper band; a small band squeeze and expansion already started; expect a reset to the middle band on 1H (≈0.222–0.224) then attempt another push.

7. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Tenkan (9) likely rising toward ~0.21–0.214; Kijun (26) likely higher (~0.26) due to Nov highs; price > Tenkan but < Kijun and probably below cloud. That mix supports: short-term bullish momentum within a still-bearish higher timeframe regime. Cloud resistance likely manifests around 0.24–0.26 on future tests.

8. ADX/DMI (daily)

• ADX still subdued (<20 historically typical after long ranges), DI+ crossing above DI- now: early trend resumption. Expect choppy but upward-biased price action until ADX strengthens.

9. Volume, OBV, and money flow

• Volume: Today’s running volume appears higher than recent sessions, confirming interest on the breakout. Sustained bid into the close is constructive.
• OBV: Ticking up from late-December lows; no bearish divergence apparent in the latest push.
• CMF (20): Likely flipping positive; closes near session highs and expanding volume indicate accumulation.

10. Candlestick/price patterns

• Micro inverse head-and-shoulders (daily): L-shoulder ≈0.205, head ≈0.1986, R-shoulder ≈0.2076; neckline 0.213–0.214. Breakout occurred; measured move ≈0.015–0.017 targets 0.228–0.231 (now met). Secondary extension can stretch to ~0.236.
• Hourly ascending triangle: Base around 0.217–0.219, horizontal cap 0.222–0.224; measured move ≈0.006–0.008 implies 0.228–0.232 (already reached lower end), with scope to 0.236 on follow-through.

11. Fibonacci analysis

• Swing 12/31 low 0.1986 to 1/2 high 0.2287: key pullback zones 38.2% ≈0.2173, 50% ≈0.2137, 61.8% ≈0.2100. A buy-the-dip plan favors 0.221–0.224 first, with deeper supports 0.217–0.214 if momentum fades intraday.
• Larger context (Nov spike to Dec lows): Major fib resistances cluster at 0.233–0.243 and 0.252–0.258, matching horizontal supply.

12. Pivot points (classic, using 1/1 OHLC)

• P ≈0.2087, R1 ≈0.2193, R2 ≈0.2253, R3 ≈0.2260. Current ≈0.2287 is above R3, signaling an extended session and increasing probability of a pullback toward R2/R1 zones before continuation. Confluence with our preferred dip-buy area.

13. Keltner and Donchian channels

• Keltner (20,1.5xATR) daily: Price has pushed outside/near the upper envelope, a typical trend signal but near-term stretched.
• Donchian (20): Break above recent 20-day highs (short-term) supports the trend continuation narrative; failure back into the channel (below ~0.217) would caution longs.

14. Elliott wave (micro, heuristic)

• 1H structure resembles a completed five-wave impulse from ~0.212 to ~0.2287. A shallow ABC correction into ~0.222–0.224 (wave 4 price territory) is a high-probability setup before the next motive leg aiming 0.233–0.236.

15. Gann/angle heuristic

• A 1x1 angle projected from 12/31 low intersects around 0.226–0.229 into today’s close window; initial target achieved. The next 24h typically see either consolidation along the angle or a brief undershoot to refuel (again favoring a dip buy).

16. Scenario pathing (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈58%): Early pullback to 0.222–0.224 (VWAP/retail reload), stabilization, then push to 0.231–0.236 with intraday spikes possibly kissing 0.239–0.241 if momentum and volumes remain firm.
• Range case (≈30%): Oscillation between 0.221 and 0.229; limited progress, but dips remain bought; a second attempt at 0.231+ late in the window.
• Bear case (≈12%): Momentum failure, loss of 0.221 leading to a test of 0.217–0.214; break of 0.213 would invalidate the immediate bullish thesis and open 0.210–0.205.

17. Trade plan logic and risk parameters

• Rationale to Buy: Multi-indicator confluence (price above rising short MAs, bullish 1H structure, OBV/CMF improvement, MACD flip, neckline break) with defined nearby supports enables a favorable pullback entry.
• Optimal entry zone: 0.221–0.224. Using a limit at 0.223 centers the bid in the retest cluster and near 1H mid-BB/VWAP.
• Profit objective (24h): 0.236–0.238 aligns with measured moves, upper BB proximity, and the next supply band.
• Suggested risk (not part of order fields but vital): Protective stop ≈0.2129 (below 50%–61.8% fib, below 20SMA retest, under neckline). From 0.223 entry, risk ≈ -4.5%. Target 0.2365 is ≈ +6.1% for ~1.35R; extension to 0.239–0.241 lifts R to ~1.7–2.0.
• Position sizing: Use ATR-based sizing to cap portfolio risk (e.g., 0.5–1.0% of equity at stop) since ADX is still developing and false breaks can occur.

18. Final synthesis

• Short-term momentum is bullish within a still-neutral-to-bearish intermediate trend. The technicals favor a buy-the-dip setup into 0.221–0.224 for a push toward 0.236–0.238 in the next 24 hours. Failure below 0.213 would invalidate and shift bias back to range/bearish.

Prediction for next 24h

• Expected path: Pullback to 0.223 ±0.002, then advance to 0.235–0.237; intraday volatility may print wicks up to 0.239–0.241 if volume expands.