FIL coils under 3.00 after a breakout: Golden-pocket dip looks primed for a 2.95–3.05 retest

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish (buy-the-dip) within a high-volatility consolidation just below 3.00.
• Thesis: After a regime-changing breakout (Nov 7) and a textbook 50–61.8% Fib retrace into a fresh support band, FIL is building higher lows intraday. Momentum and breadth are stabilizing; dip buys toward 2.74–2.80 have favorable asymmetric reward toward 2.95–3.05 over the next session.

1. Price action and market structure

• Regime shift: From Oct 10’s capitulative flush to sub-2 and subsequent basing around 1.4–1.7, FIL exploded on Nov 7 to a 3.883 high with record volume, resetting the medium-term trend to up.
• Current context: Two-day pullback from 3.36 (Nov 7 close) to 2.95 (Nov 8 close) and intraday oscillation 2.55–2.94 (Nov 9). Today’s price (2.825) is carving a higher-low structure vs. the early-session trough (2.55–2.67 zone), with intraday supports emerging at 2.74–2.76 and 2.67.
• Inside-day/symmetry: Nov 9 thus far is an inside-type consolidation under the prior day’s range (2.77–3.55 on Nov 8), indicative of digestion rather than trend reversal.

2. Key levels (multi-timeframe)

• Resistance: 2.95–3.00 (Fib 61.8% from the Nov 3 low to Nov 7 high; psychological round level), 3.10–3.36 (supply from Nov 7 close and overhead wick zone), 3.55–3.88 (spike high supply).
• Support: 2.74–2.76 (today’s HVN/inflection), 2.66–2.68 (50% retrace cluster), 2.55–2.56 (hourly sweep low), 2.40 (prior breakout shelf), 2.20 (deeper pullback contingency).

3. Fibonacci mapping (swing Nov 3 low to Nov 7 high)

• Swing: 1.442 → 3.883 (range 2.441).
• Retracements from low: 38.2% = 2.375, 50% = 2.662, 61.8% = 2.950.
• Price sits between 0.5 and 0.618 (“golden pocket”), a classic continuation buy zone. The 2.95 cap has already acted as resistance (Nov 8/9), while 2.66 provided reactional support overnight.

4. Moving averages and trend gauges

• Daily MAs (estimates):
  • 10SMA ≈ 2.01; 20SMA ≈ 1.9; 50SMA ≈ 2.2. Price at 2.83 is above all, confirming a bullish bias.
  • 8EMA/10EMA rising; price is oscillating just above the fast EMAs on intraday frames and well above the 20/50 daily MAs, typical of a nascent uptrend post-breakout.
• Slope/stack: Short-term MAs > medium-term MAs; positive slope indicates trend continuation odds > mean-revert odds.

5. Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily, qualitative): After the surge, RSI pulled back from overbought to high-50s/low-60s territory—bull range behavior. This supports continuation after consolidation.
• RSI (hourly): Pulled back from ~70 intraday to mid-50s, resetting without breaking structure; opens room for another push.
• MACD (daily): Bullish cross and positive histogram after Nov 7 impulse; histogram contracted during the pullback and is stabilizing—constructive if price holds above 2.66–2.75.
• Stochastics (hourly): Cycling up from mid-range, consistent with a buy-the-dip recovery attempt.
• DMI/ADX (daily, qualitative): +DI > −DI with rising/firm ADX post-breakout; trend strength remains elevated vs. prior regime.

6. Volatility and bands

• ATR (daily) expanded sharply post-breakout (est. 0.45–0.70); expect 15–25% intraday swings to persist.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): After a squeeze → expand on the breakout, price mean-reverted toward the mid-band region; current prints near the upper half of the band envelope, consistent with bullish consolidation. A clean reclaim of the upper band near 2.95 would likely trigger momentum toward 3.05–3.20.
• Keltner Channels: Price visiting mid-channel after upper-channel tag; a bounce from mid to upper band fits the dip-buy plan.

7. Volume analytics

• Volume regime: Record turnover Nov 7 and sustained heavy activity since—validates the breakout (not a low-liquidity anomaly).
• OBV (qualitative): Steep rise on Nov 6–7; mild drift lower during pullback but still elevated; no distribution signature comparable to the advance.
• Market profile (intraday): Emerging HVNs at 2.66–2.70 and 2.74–2.76; LVN “air” into 2.88–2.95 suggests that if 2.88 breaks with volume, price can traverse to ~2.95–3.00 quickly.

8. Ichimoku overview

• Daily: Price above Kumo; Tenkan > Kijun; Chikou clear—bullish. Typical pullback magnet would be the Tenkan/Kijun region (estimated mid-2s), already tested via 2.66–2.75. As long as candles close above Kijun-equivalent (~1.9–2.1), the higher-timeframe uptrend is intact.
• Hourly: Price reclaimed/hovering above cloud; pullbacks to Tenkan/Kijun (2.78–2.83) are being bought—favorable for continuation toward 2.95.

9. Pattern diagnostics and candles

• Nov 8: Long upper wick off 3.55 with close at 2.96—profit-taking after the spike, not necessarily trend termination.
• Nov 9: Inside/consolidation day; intraday higher lows and repeated probes of 2.85–2.90 suggest absorption of supply ahead of 2.95.
• Micro-structure: Liquidity sweeps of 2.67 and 2.76 followed by quick rejections indicate responsive buyers.

10. Advanced confluence and auxiliary tools

• Anchored VWAP: From the Nov 7 impulse sits in the 2.80–2.90 neighborhood; current price oscillates around AVWAP, typical of consolidation before next leg.
• Elliott Wave (exploratory): Wave 1 (1.44 → 3.88), Wave 2 retrace (to 2.66), setting up a potential Wave 3 extension. Near-term objective within 24h would be reclaim of 3.00–3.10; larger projection remains 3.3–3.6 if momentum expands again (beyond this horizon).
• Parabolic SAR (intraday): Likely flipped bullish after the morning rebound; a hold above 2.76 keeps dots below price.
• Mean reversion: 8–10 EMA catch-ups achieved; maintaining above intraday EMA ribbon favors trend resumption.
• KAMA/Fractals: Recent fractal low at 2.66; next fractal highs 2.89/2.95—break implies momentum continuation.

11. Risk matrix (24h horizon)

• Bull case (~55–60%): Hold 2.74–2.76 → push through 2.89 → tag 2.95–3.05; squeeze can extend to 3.10–3.20 if volume returns.
• Base case (~30–35%): Chop 2.70–2.95 range, multiple tests of 2.85–2.90, close near 2.90.
• Bear case (~10–15%): Lose 2.74, test 2.66; sustained acceptance below 2.66 opens 2.55. Only a daily close <2.55 would threaten the breakout structure materially.

12. Trading plan and execution

• Strategy: Buy-the-dip into the 2.74–2.80 support band, aiming for a retest of 2.95–3.05 within 24h. Favor limit orders to improve entry quality in a whipsaw tape.
• Entry: Optimal limit buy near 2.77 (mid of 2.74–2.80 support cluster; aligns with intraday Tenkan/VWAP rotation).
• Profit target: 3.02 (front-run the 3.00 round number and 2.95–3.05 resistance shelf to improve fill odds).
• Optional risk control (not requested but prudent): Protective stop around 2.63 (below 50% Fib/structure), yielding approx R:R ≈ 1.9–2.1x for a 24h swing.

13. Timing and triggers to monitor

• Confirmation: Break and hold above 2.89 on rising volume; intraday RSIs rotating back >60; MACD histogram turning up on 1h/2h.
• Caution: Failure swings at 2.89–2.95 with expanding sell volume raise odds of a deeper probe to 2.66; reassess if hourly closes stack below 2.74.

Conclusion

• Confluence across Fib retracements, intraday structure, momentum reset, and volume supports a tactical long. Expect a range expansion attempt toward 2.95–3.05 if 2.89 gives way. Best-in-class risk-adjusted entry sits in the 2.74–2.80 pocket.