FIL coiling at S1: Tactical long into $2.16 as $2.10 breaks

Summary view

• Timeframe context: After a volatility shock on Nov 7 (intraday high ~3.88), FIL has been mean-reverting lower for five sessions, now consolidating around $2.08. The 24–36h intraday tape shows a slide from ~2.21 to ~2.01, followed by a basing attempt and mild recovery to ~2.08–2.12.
• Bias for next 24h: Mildly bullish (tactical) within a still-corrective higher-timeframe. Expect range $2.00–$2.18 with a tilt to test $2.12–$2.16 if $2.10–$2.12 breaks/holds.

Multi-technique analysis

1. Market structure and pattern (1h/4h)

• Lower highs since Nov 8, but the last 24h formed a potential descending wedge with flat-to-slightly higher lows: touches near $2.02–$2.03 (18:00 and 04:00) and a prior spike to ~$2.00 (21:00). This creates a triple-bottom/accumulation band at $2.00–$2.03.
• Immediate resistance stack: $2.10–$2.12 (minor LH cluster and wedge top), then $2.16–$2.17 (prior intraday rejection band), and $2.20–$2.21 (daily pivot zone).
• Takeaway: A push/hold above ~$2.10 would signal a wedge break and open $2.14–$2.16.

2. Moving averages

• 20-day SMA ≈ 1.90 (est. from last 20 closes); price trades above it, signaling short-term stabilization after the dump.
• 50-day SMA likely ≈ 2.30 (given Aug–Oct regime around 2.2–2.6); price below it, keeping medium-term trend down. Net: short-term bounce within a broader downtrend.

3. Momentum (RSI/MACD)

• 1h RSI recovered from oversold to mid-40s/low-50s—constructive for a continuation pop if 2.10 clears.
• 1h MACD likely crossed up with a positive histogram after the $2.01–$2.03 base—supports a near-term upswing toward $2.12–$2.16.

4. Volatility/Bands

• 1h Bollinger Bands have tightened around ~$2.08, pointing to a coming expansion. Price is riding mid/upper band on bounces—slight bullish skew if $2.05 holds on pullbacks.
• Daily bands remain wide post-spike (upper likely >$3, lower <<$1.5), placing $2.08 near the mid-to-lower half—room exists for a mean-reverting pop without violating the broader corrective context.

5. Fibonacci context (Nov 6 low → Nov 7 high)

• Swing low ~1.329 → high ~3.883. Key retraces: 61.8% ≈ 2.30, 78.6% ≈ 1.88.
• Price sits between 61.8% and 78.6%, leaning closer to the 78.6% support cluster near $1.88–$1.95. This zone + psych $2.00 creates a supportive shelf; bounces often emerge from 78.6% if sellers tire.

6. Pivots/VWAP

• Classic daily pivots using Nov 12 (H 2.352, L 2.087, C 2.191): P ≈ 2.210, S1 ≈ 2.068, R1 ≈ 2.333, S2 ≈ 1.945.
• Price is oscillating near S1 (~$2.07), reinforcing local support; R1 is far above and unlikely in 24h without a strong catalyst.
• Intraday VWAP sits near ~$2.08–$2.09; price around VWAP suggests fair value equilibrium with modest buyer absorption.

7. Volume/flow

• Post-spike distribution has seen decreasing volume on down days—classic seller exhaustion. Recent hourly prints show higher activity into dips ($2.02–$2.06), suggesting absorption and a willing bid.

8. Ichimoku (1h, qualitative)

• Price is pressing toward the Kijun/base (~$2.10). A close above $2.10–$2.12 would likely shift Tenkan>Kijun and drag price into/above the cloud, consistent with a push to $2.14–$2.16.

9. Risk framing and scenarios (24h)

• Base case (60%): Hold $2.04–$2.07, break $2.10–$2.12, tag $2.14–$2.16 where supply reappears.
• Bear case (30%): Lose $2.04, re-test $2.00; a decisive break opens $1.94–$1.90 (S2/78.6%/20d SMA confluence).
• Tail (10%): Unexpected momentum squeeze above $2.16 extends to $2.18–$2.21; still unlikely to clear $2.21 pivot sustainably without fresh news.

Actionable takeaway

• Tactical long is favored on a small dip toward $2.06–$2.07 (S1/VWAP vicinity) with a target into $2.16 where multiple resistances converge. Invalidation for the thesis sits below $2.00 (not a hard stop given request, but a key risk marker).

Prediction for next 24 hours

• Expected range: $2.00–$2.18; directional bias: mild upside. Most probable path: early pullback to ~$2.06, then attempt at $2.12–$2.16. Profit-taking likely to cap price in mid-$2.1s absent catalysts.